Party Poker's Long Term Health

[Cubswin]

More generally, online poker is a bubble, like NADSAQ, like tulips in 1620. Today things are good, tomorrow, not so much. In five years it'll all be done. Enjoy it while it lasts.

I disagree for so many reasons. Online poker is not going away anytime soon. The game quality might go down but not the numbers playing it.

cubs

[Michael Davis]

Well, this is a big concern. If the game deteriorates too much it won't be worth playing. But this might be a long way away. My win rate could be cut 2/3 and it would still be worth playing over going to a B&M. But I could see even this edge being eliminated in the coming years as the number of sharks increases.

-Michael

[Cubswin]

If the game deteriorates too much it won't be worth playing.

If the games deteriorate to this point which players are the ones who are going to quit playing? Its really a moot point because there are just way too many gamblers out there and because we havnt scratched the surface of the global player base. The marginal winners are the only ones who might need to worry.

cubs

[Rudbaeck]

When there isn't enough food for predators there is dieback among the predators, not the prey.

[Cubswin]

nice hand

[AngryCola]

Haven't people been saying that about live poker for years?

Online poker wont "be done" anytime soon.

Honestly, I'm not sure how you can make such a bold statement.
Comparing online poker to the stock market is worse than comparing apples to oranges.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
Haven't people been saying that about live poker for years?

Online poker wont "be done" anytime soon.

Honestly, I'm not sure how you can make such a bold statement.


[/ QUOTE ]

The big difference is that skilled B&M players only play one table at a time.

Online, if the fish continue to come in one table at a time, they will eventually be massively outnumbered by the skilled players playing four to eight tables at a time.

[radek2166]

A few things you forget.

1)limits online vs b&m
2)drve time for most people
3)many games anytime
4)no tipping the dealer

[mcozzy1]

The party low limit games have gotten progressively more difficult. During the weekdays, it sometimes seems like it's all multitabling pros. Friday was exceptional. So nice to see soooo many fish.

[ QUOTE ]
More generally, online poker is a bubble, like NADSAQ, like tulips in 1620. Today things are good, tomorrow, not so much. In five years it'll all be done. Enjoy it while it lasts.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. I don't think it will be that good for more than 2 years tops. Just look at the number of daily posts asking about adding another monitor (I want to tell them that it's impossible or that it gives your computer nasty viruses - but that wouldn't be right).

There just aren't 8 new fish coming in for every multitabling pro. I've seen quite a few of the existing fish smarten up about their play after dropping a bunch of cash.

I'm already making plans to phase in another job a year from now. I wish it was going to last, but it's not.

[barongreenback]

[ QUOTE ]
The oceans of our Earth will never run out of fish. I don't see online poker running out of fish. Let the multi-tabling continue.

[/ QUOTE ]
Haven't you heard of overfishing?

As for poker:

Big profits for Party + multitablers making big money
= that money has to come from somewhere

There will be an inevitable toughening of tables as losing players drift down the limits.

I also wonder about Party's profits as most of the big multitablers must be getting rakeback.