Party Poker's Income

[Jax_Grinder]

Interesting info on that site, thanks. In my calculation I tried to backdoor the number of hands raked by tracking the turnover on the bad beat counter ($.5 per hand - came out to $60 per minute over a 3 minute period...i extrapolated that to 2 raked hands per second over the 75 bad beat tables and used that as an average for all ring tables of 60 raked hands per second). Your methodology and assumptions may be more accurate (who knows), but the number, including tourney fees, still comes out to well in excess of $1B for the year....if they don't continue to add players at the rate of +25% per month.

[TDCumm16]

I believe the difference between Jax and gold's estimates maybe that gold reported $250M income for last year, whereas Jax' estimate is just a revenue estimate and does take into account the expenses Party incurs

[That guy]

who knows the accuracy of such but here goes:

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One industry insider commented. "This valuation of paradise would make new leaders Party Poker worth at least $2 billion."

from:
http://www.pokernews.info/news-id287.html
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I used to work in investment banking.

If somebody is valuing this thing at $2 billion, then using a 20 P/E multiple yields after-tax earnings of $100 million.

Assuming high margins like the online video gaming companies, I would guess revenues in the $300-500mm range. Call it $400mm would make $2 billion and 5x multiple of revenues logical...

That is assuming the $2 billion is close.

[Jax_Grinder]

A more technical perspective for sure. Thanks. Note that the quote you reference states " at least $2 billion", and, further, that this income stream is NOT a static or mature. Between February '03 and today, their peak usage has grown by some 400% and shows little signs of slowing.

BTW, this could turn into an interesting exercise into the power of distributed group analysis (no idea if thats what its called, but you get the idea). I bet 2+2 as a whole could estimate PP gross revenues pretty darn close (+/- 10%) with addtional, reasoned input (net income would be impossible to estimate without some insight into what there expenses really are - even with cost savings associated with subcontracting all of their cs work to India...).

[REL18]

I know exactly how much they make if they aint lying. They say so on the site last year 500 million this year they will make a billion. Or at least thats what it says on the site

[srw5n]

An interesting little article on the potential market cap of Party poker:
[url]http://business.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=4056004[url/]
To summarize the gentlemen who started the company are exploring their options. Realistically I would guess they are either acquired or go public in the next 12 months. The potential market cap for the company is much higher than I anticipated (over 5 billion dollars). All I can say is WOW.

[Dan Mezick]

Readers of this thread might look in the StockMarket forum, where there is a link describing Party's possible IPO. They are reporting 350MM in net revenues in 2004.

Party Poker IPO Post: 2+2

[Jax_Grinder]

Just found this. http://infoex.hemscott.net/MESSAGES/1430962.HTM

The money quote for this topic appears to be -

"PartyGaming last year reported earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of about 350 mln usd (186 mln stg). Earnings are projected to rise to as much as 600 mln usd this year. Among British peers, shares in William Hill trade on a multiple of around 17 times earnings, while Sportingbet stock is valued at around 19 times estimated 2005 earnings."

While I STILL think $600M is way low (call be pigheaded), that would produce a market cap of $10.8B or so. Not too shabby.

There's also a section about Merrill Lynch, UBS, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank refusing to get involved in the acquisition of Paradise Poker (thus passing up $20M in fees!) because of "concerns that PartyGaming's
biggest market is in the United States, where the legality of internet gambling remains in doubt. Although poker, where players are pitched against each other rather than
against the house, is less of a grey area, the big banks are still wary of upsetting regulators such as Eliot Spitzer, New York's attorney-general."

Legality in doubt? There is none. It's simply not legal in almost every jurisdiciton in this country. However, given that U.S. based prosecutors have no reach to foreign shores, and U.S. law enforcement has neither the capacity nor the ability to track the activity from the client side, there is no need for "concern" from an operating perspective. Now on the other hand, perhaps the investment banking folks have some concerns in re: security regulations...

I've blathered long enough. Thanks for the interesting responses to my virgin post.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]


Legality in doubt? There is none. It's simply not legal in almost every jurisdiciton in this country.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are wrong on this. There was a post that listed gambling legality in almost all states, and the overwhelming majority had no explicit ban on internet gambling.

[DesertCat]

ttp://www.gambling-law-us.com/State-Law-Summary/

Here's the actual link on U.S. Gambling laws.