average hand turns into big hand

[aceragclubs]

Can someone explain to me why everyone wants to cap the flop so badly? Everyone said they would do it so I guess it's probably the correct play....but with 5 players, I would probably just check-call with this draw. It is unlikely that you are going to win without a showdown, and the only card that can help you is a club. I would bet this hard into one or two opponents, and I don't mind betting out here, but why the cap? If you hit your hand it's probably good (not here, unfortunately), and the hands that could beat you if you hit your hand (flopped set, two pair, nut flush draw), aren't going anywhere. Aren't you just betting out inferior hands?

Aceragclubs

[btspider]

the cap won't drive anyone out. everyone already made it clear they were going to the turn. play around with twodimes.net to see how much pot equity Hero has on this flop.

he's likely going to win this hand a little more than 30% of the time and yet he is only putting in 20% of the money going into the pot. thus, the cap for value.

[Twitch1977]

You have it backwards, the more people in the hand the harder you should play it. With 4 cards to a flush you'll get your 5th by the river about 34% of the time (2:1), and your flush in this case is to the second nut.

So since you can expect to win this hand approximately say 30% of the time and you are contributing less then 30% of the bets, it becomes a bet 'for value' since you expect that bet to recover more then the cost (+EV).

T

[dburk2]

this might be a dumb question but how ill i figure out the % of me to win this hand during the hand.

[chief444]

I've 3-bet flops with hands Q high would beat. Although I guess at the .5/1 level you wouldn't expect it. Still though, I wouldn't expect a set based on the turn action.

[Twitch1977]

Have you read at all about counting your 'outs'? Once you figure out how many cards are in the deck that can win you your hand then you can convert that to a percentage chance of winning.

With flushes it's easy, if you have 4 to the flush on the flop, you're 1.9:1 against to hit it by the turn, (9 of your suit left in the deck with 2 cards to come), so you'll hit your card just over 1/3rd of the time.

Any of the starting low limit books should go over the counting of outs, after that it's just converting it from odds format to percentage.

T

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
this might be a dumb question but how ill i figure out the % of me to win this hand during the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

mostly by reading and estimating. you can play around with this equity calculator too. so in this hand:

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=735151
pokenum -h ah ks - 4d 4s - ad 9d - qc 9c - 8s tc -- ac 4c 8d
Holdem Hi: 741 enumerated boards containing Ac 4c 8d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Ah 6 0.81 733 98.92 2 0.27 0.009
4s 4d 479 64.64 262 35.36 0 0.00 0.646
Ad 9d 39 5.26 700 94.47 2 0.27 0.054
Qc 9c 205 27.67 536 72.33 0 0.00 0.277
8s Tc 10 1.35 731 98.65 0 0.00 0.013

hero has a less than 30% equity, but he's against the nearly worst case set. i randomly picked the T8 hand since someone folded the river.

[dburk2]

i didnt ask what outs are....i asked how a % can figured out of how often you will win the pot

[dburk2]

ok thx, ive been readin sklaskys ssh book and he refers to you % of winning and i thought i might have missed something on how to calculate it or someting

[chief444]

1 - ((47-#outs)/47))*((46-#outs)/46))

Flush draw:

1 - (38/47)*(37/46) = .35 = 35%