never been so sure of winning a hand- only to lose it

[Profit]

cardplayers poker odds calculator isn't working (at least for me at this moment) or else id post the odds.

When i am heads-up, i normally do not give the person credit for the flush draw (is this bad?) on the turn i KNOW im winning. The river doesnt bring a flush, so the only had i lose to besides AA is 10j. Honestly 10j never even crossed my mind, but for 195 i was calling. if i had 2k in chips and he put me all in, i was still calling.

I think my chip stack in comparison to the other 5 players plays a big part in this. If i walk away from this pot only up 100 chips and in 4th place i am a little upset (yes i live to play another hand but i am in 4th place and just "wasted" QQ.

Am i looking at this completely wrong? Do i really want a guy to fold who has 10j on this flop?, he needs to catch runner-runner in order to win, i like my chances, the same if he has an ace on the turn, i still like my chances. If he has a flush draw i still win this hand 80% of the time going into the river.

So are people just looking at the results or are they serious that it is an instant all in with QQ with an ace on the board (the only way i see this as being +EV is if i get him to fold a very weak ace..?)

[HoldingFolding]

I don't think this hand was played badly at all. OK you could argue (10BB rule) that he should have gone all in pre flop, but with TJ the only other hand out there he *would* just have got the blinds. So his opponent, makes a weak bet post flop. If he's an ABC player I think you have to put him on Ax; his bet says "can you please tell me if you have A-paint". Leastways, I would be unsure that my ladies were still good. The dream turn, I would have gone all in here, but with 17 perceived outs your opponent would have had very decent odds to call. [a bet of 370 to win 1320, and he'd actually hit 15 times out of 42]

[Profit]

15 outs? 15 if he had a str8 flush draw, but he didnt. im counting 8... he only had the str8 draw, or are you saying the maximum possible outs some1 could have had?

[HoldingFolding]

Balls up. All that talk about the flush draw, I thought he had TsJs. In which case he wouldn't have had the odds to call...

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]
but for 195 i was calling. if i had 2k in chips and he put me all in, i was still calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why you should have pushed on the turn. If you are determined to call anyway, why not gain some folding equity?
With your tiny raise on the turn you just gave any flush/double ended hand the odds to draw.

If you offer someone good odds and they take them, don't be complaining when you lose.

[Profit]

[ QUOTE ]
If you offer someone good odds and they take them, don't be complaining when you lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

At no time did i complain that i lost, i stated that it took me by surprise.

[ QUOTE ]
This is why you should have pushed on the turn. If you are determined to call anyway, why not gain some folding equity?

[/ QUOTE ]

For 195 there is no way the guy is folding his (now) open ended str8 draw. The only way i win this hand post flop is to go all in on the flop- buy i have no problem with 10j putting in 275 on a 7 9 A flop. if i had more chips i could have made a much larger raise on the turn- but 195 is insignificant.

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]

At no time did i complain that i lost, i stated that it took me by surprise.


[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I didn't mean to accuse you of complaining.

[ QUOTE ]

For 195 there is no way the guy is folding his (now) open ended str8 draw. .... if i had more chips i could have made a much larger raise on the turn- but 195 is insignificant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Possibly not, since it is his last 195, but he might, and it does mean that unless he has more than 12 outs (J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) he is not getting the correct odds to make the call. That is a bet you are on the right side of. And I would say that is not completely insignifigant.

[ QUOTE ]

The only way i win this hand post flop is to go all in on the flop


[/ QUOTE ]

Why didn't you? In what circumstance would you have folded the turn?

[ QUOTE ]

bu[t] i have no problem with 10j putting in 275 on a 7 9 A flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

What are you trying to say here?

[Profit]

[ QUOTE ]
Possibly not, since it is his last 195

[/ QUOTE ]
actually it was my last 195, he had more than me.

[ QUOTE ]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The only way i win this hand post flop is to go all in on the flop



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Why didn't you?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wanted to see how he would play the turn. I suspected he had a weak ace.

[ QUOTE ]
In what circumstance would you have folded the turn?


[/ QUOTE ]

That is a good question. and i don't have the answer to it right now.

[ QUOTE ]
What are you trying to say here?

[/ QUOTE ]
That on a flop with an ace, nine, seven, i dont want a guy with a 10j (essentially 4 outs excluding runner runner)to fold (especially when i have 2 of his outs (QQ) for him to make an open ended str8 draw)

[Insty]

Ok, you seem to be convinced that you played this hand "correctly".
So, your read was wrong and you lost. Why did you post this hand here?
Perhaps you should have just posted it in the bad beat forum.

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Possibly not, since it is his last 195

[/ QUOTE ]
actually it was my last 195, he had more than me.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, My mistake. All the more reason to push it all in!