Difference btwn. 30+3 and 50+5

[The Yugoslavian]

I'd have to say the 55s are WAAAAAY easier. Just check this out, over the last three nights:

20 55s
3 1st
3 2nd
2 3rd
+$300, +27% ROI

27 33s
2 1sts
1 2nd
2 3rds
-$381, -43% ROI
(19 OOTM with only 1 3rd in between them)

So obviously the 55s are a cakewalk and the 33s are murderous. I'm thinking about getting 4 flat panel monitors that do 1600x1200 a la what ZJ seems to be doing soon and just 16 table the 55s. It's obvious I'm just too good for the 33s and will lose $$ there unless I move up, [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Oh, but seriously, I'd say that the 55s are much more likely to be 5-7 handed on level 7 and stuff like that. Your raises are respected more (but not *always*) than the 33s and you'll end up getting smacked on or near the bubble when the blinds are huge and you need to try to take them down to stay alive.

Irieguy has posted about this in Rythm in the madness 2 I believe after he completed a significant run of 55s and gave his observations.

Rythm in the madness II - an instant classic

Taking shots at the 55s is fine -- they're definitely not unbeatable by any means (but given my insignificant sample size there it's not like I *know* if I'm really beating them).

FWIW I lost my first 5 and didn't play any 55s for quite a while even though 4 of them it was as a huge favorite and the other on a coin flip. When I felt like my bankroll wouldn't be phased too much I decided to take another shot.

Yugoslav

[slydeni]

this is a good point i had not considered. the 1000 starting chips does make for a longer tourney,a nd more players in late. how to adjust? suggestions?

[The Yugoslavian]

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There is no way those numbers are accurate.


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I'd say I'm 99% confident the numbers are accurate...you got any rationale behind your skepticism or just 'feel'?

Pokerscott

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He *obviously* took a ton of time to go through your posts and methodology about how you arrived at your ROI analysis. So, I'm sure it's more than merely 'feel,' [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Yugoslav

[pshreck]

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There is no way those numbers are accurate.


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I'd say I'm 99% confident the numbers are accurate...you got any rationale behind your skepticism or just 'feel'?

Pokerscott

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2,500 recorded SNG's at a single level (20+2). ROI variations have swung 80% (anywhere from 50% ROI to -30% ROI) over 150 game sets. From my experience on these boards, we find people who come and post about their success over smaller sample sizes (50-500), and then don't neccesarily hear much more about it because their first swing (which most of the time was up) ended and it turns out they are close to break even than they first thought.

I think beating the 10% rake even at levels of 10+1 to 30+3 is extremely hard to do (mulitabling atleast), and doing so is often marginalized on this board. Almost any competent single table tournament player is perfectly capable of dominating over a small stretch of 200, but very few are able to do it on a long term basis.

[slydeni]

yes i agree - 200 sng is small to base long term conjectures on. I took a stab, and for one reason or another...just was not feeling 50+5 yet.

But my que3stion is::: IN your expereience... how much better are the players at 50+5 than 30+3?

sly

[pshreck]

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yes i agree - 200 sng is small to base long term conjectures on. I took a stab, and for one reason or another...just was not feeling 50+5 yet.

But my que3stion is::: IN your expereience... how much better are the players at 50+5 than 30+3?

sly

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I am actually very alone with this opinion on this board, but I think there is a significant difference between all levels, at least on Party (only place I played).

[Pokerscott]

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2,500 recorded SNG's at a single level (20+2). ROI variations have swung 80% (anywhere from 50% ROI to -30% ROI) over 150 game sets.

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the 5th and 95th percentile results for a 10% ROI player over 100 SnGs should be between -15% and 37% ROI. Not too far off from your swing range I guess. However, one persons results can be just about anything if you have enough people out there doing something.

The statistics of the swings are pretty straight forward to calculate. You can calculate them analytically (there is a spreadsheet floating around to do that) or calculate them numerically. Of course, you can believe what you want lol

Pokerscott

[Mr_J]

Ok I'm no maths geek, but 90% is inside 2 std deviations, which is not statistically significant?

[Mr_J]

And I'll throw in that in my short stint at the $50s, the competition didn't really seem much tougher at all. Maybe I'm just not good enough to really notice it yet.

[Irieguy]

After reading Yugo's post, I re-read my "Rhythm in the Madness II" post for the first time since posting it and realized that I had said I would post my results after 500 SNGs at the $55's.

I forgot to do that, so here they are along with a few more comments on the level.

ITM: 38.5%
ROI: 19%

This is mostly playing 6-8 tables at once... and most of my "RITM2" comments pertain to playing 1 or 2 tables at once.

I still would stand by just about everything I said in my initial analysis, though I fear I still may have been a bit optimistic with what's possible in terms of ITM (42%).

The main issue (for me, anyways) is that I can achieve much better results with less effort and less time at the $33's. My ITM there is around 41% with an ROI of around 28% while 8-tabling. The tournaments also end quicker, so I can play 8 in about 45 minutes.

So, for now anyways, the $55's seem worthless to me. Dropping from 28% to 19% ROI is just too big a drop for me to swallow. Even though my "E" per SNG is higher at the $55's, my $ per hour is higher at the $33's. Most importantly, the variance implications of living at an ROI around 15-20% are much more taxing than the $33 alternative.

My current thought is that the $109's are the "perfect" level, but I've seen plenty of respected 2+2ers get smoked at that level, and my own brief attempts to move up usually begin and end with a 15-20 OOTM run. That's always a million laughs.

I'm trying again soon, so "Rhythm in the Madness III" should appear in a month or two.

Irieguy