Flawed Author-Cardplayer Articles

[binions]

Brier wrote:

"The advantages cited for reraising seem miniscule and not worth the cost of the bet. What is the increase in expectation when you “buy two more outs” by having the small blind fold a better ace? First, what is the likelihood that he even has an ace? Suppose that he would raise from the small blind with a typical “under-the-gun” raising hand such as A-K, A-Q, A-J suited, K-Q suited, A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, or maybe 10-10. (As an aside, very few low-limit players raise from their blinds against a large field with A-Q offsuit). Given the cards showing, the probability is about 30 percent that he has A-Q or A-J suited. Second, two outs from 45 unseen cards is about 4 percent. So, overall, this is worth about 1 percent. On a pot this size, this equates to maybe 0.1-0.2 small bets. In a $4-$8 game, this would be worth about 60 cents. This drops to about 30 cents if we rule out A-Q offsuit."

********************

Buying 2 outs with 2 to come by reraising an AQ out is not worth 4%. It's worth 8.79% if you see the river card.

1 - (43/45 * 42/44) = 8.79%

[Beavis68]

I am glad to see that Cardplayer is paying Brier to incorrectly analyze someone else's work, I wonder if I could get a career in this field?

[Gallopin Gael]

Movie critic...
Sports talk host....

Seems like there are plenty of options in your new chosen field.
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[slogger]

Could it be that Jones misplayed this hand on EVERY street?

What about the river? Assuming there is a cap, why wouldn't he 3-bet the river? Sure, his opponent has misplayed A2 badly so far, but what has Jones done to indicted he has AK (even assuming his flop coldcall and turn bet would tip off a good player to the possibility that Lee held AK, what's to say the weak unknown player could not have AQ or AJ?

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
Could it be that Jones misplayed this hand on EVERY street?

What about the river? Assuming there is a cap, why wouldn't he 3-bet the river? Sure, his opponent has misplayed A2 badly so far, but what has Jones done to indicted he has AK (even assuming his flop coldcall and turn bet would tip off a good player to the possibility that Lee held AK, what's to say the weak unknown player could not have AQ or AJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

As it turned out, not raising the river was a 1 or maybe 2 bet error.

Letting a pocket pair have odds to hit his set on the river could have been a 20 bet error.

[The once and future king]

I know.

I was assuming that one had just lost a hand etc and one was reduced to x5BB.

If I was to find myself with x5 the BB in the SB I would push with any 2 if it was folded to the button. I think this would be the standard line amongst SNG specialists.

Obviously I wouldnt wait to be 5xBB. I would have started making moves long before this.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
I am biting my tongue a little bit here because people don't like it when I get too mean.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't do that!
People that think you are sometimes mean or arrogant don't seem to get that you just try to be as blunt as possible.
Sometimes that's not going to be "nice".

I'll be trying to find the errors without reading any of the replies on this thread. I'm curious that way.

[KeyToTheMint]

I just want to be clear with my Ciaffone problem. When I
extrapolate the sentence go into panic and move with 5 big
blinds or less in steal position I come up with situations
like,

I might be holding 5-2 on the puck and no one in yet with 300 chips and push with blinds of 50-100. The big blind knows i am desperate, knows he can break me, knows i am in steal position and knows he's getting more than 2-1 on his money. I am going to
get called with the great possibility of having the worst
hand. In essence, all I did was get my case chips in with
the worst hand. I can do this anytime I want. I am not
even saying Ciaffone is wrong. I just don't see how it
is right. I've only played a few low limit tourneys so
I am trying to learn. Help me. Is he right?

[pfkaok]

In that Jones article, he doesn't point out that if each other guy has a PP then 2 outs each is pretty important with that pot size... Also, if they have AQ, or AJ then they'd have 3 outs, and certainly have enough odds to call when he's slowplaying his "immortal nuts". Then, on the turn when he puts the guy on a possible flush draw its even more ridiculous that he wouldn't want to charge him an extra bet. Sure the flush draw would still be getting odds to call 2 more at that point, but why not make them pay when you have the edge. Somehow KNOWING that the button had AK, even though he's an unknown (and wasn't respected enough before the hand to lay down AKo to a cap).

[uuDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
I am biting my tongue a little bit here because people don't like it when I get too mean.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mean: criticism on the basis of lack of intellectual capacity.

Not mean: criticizing specific errors.