AQs hits the flop when the pot is large

[wheelz]

There is absolutely no reason to not bet this flop.

[JinX11]

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Post the example from the book if you have time.

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Here is the example from p.171 of HEFAP (sorry, was 171, not 170):

You have AA on the button, many players are in, and the pot is very large. The flop comes J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and it is checked to you.

"The play is to also check! Then when someone bets on fourth street you raise -- unless a ten or a nine comes off. Again, if someone is going to draw out on you on thet urn you can't prevent it anyway. By playing your hand this way you'll be able to stop him from drawing out on you on the end."

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Sadly (for me), I don't agree with the play here either, and also cannot point out the distinction between this and your situation. So, I can certainly understand your confusion (as I am now confused, too, if this is truly the best way to play it).

[mannika]

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Assume a set of separate situations
1) If button bets, J/K will call, and I will get a chance to double/triple bet them
2) If button checks and next card is J/K, I save myself a SB
3) If button checks and next card is not J/K, I have shown weakness on the flop, and will most likely be bet into. Now that I have been bet into, I can raise to knock out J/K drawers.

Is my logic flawed here?

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Yes, it is. Terribly so, IMO. If you think the button will bet, won't he perhaps raise? Then you DEFINITELY should bet to cut down the odds of the field when button raises.

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I don't "think" that any of these scenarios is more likely than the other, I am just listing the possible situations if I check, and the benefits of checking under each of those scenarios. With a fairly normal 3/6 player, I don't think it is a safe assumption to say that any time the button bets, he would have raised my bet.

[chief444]

An overpair is quite a bit different than top pair and very different than top two pair. You don't dominate many hands, you have fewer outs to improve, and you're more worried about protecting with the AA example. I'm more worried about collecting bets in your hand.

[Rico Suave]

mannika:

FPS.

You are way overthinking things here. You have top two fricking pair in a large pot. Bet....FOR VALUE!!! I am all for looking for ways to protect you hand, but sometimes, you just can't.

--Rico

[mtdoak]

If it is raised in front of you, just call. If checked to you bet. Its a coordinated board so raising will not protect your hand. If its a safe card on the turn, drop the check raise like no tomorrow.

[arkady]

The example listed above from the book assumes someone is capable of folding a gut draw for 2 cold on the turn. We are not dealing with that breed of fish here. I won't even mention that the turn bet has to come exactly from your left, otherwise it will fail too. So um you bet the flop, because you are ahead and because you got position. The amount of times you will beat out a K/J should convince you to bet.

[JinX11]

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If it is raised in front of you, just call . If checked to you bet. Its a coordinated board so raising will not protect your hand. If its a safe card on the turn, drop the check raise like no tomorrow.

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Huh? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Hero has a chance to make it 7.5:1 (i.e., unprofitable) for any gutshot draws acting behind his raise. If someone bets this flop ahead of Hero, he should thank his lucky stars and raise like no tomorrow.

[ChipsForFree]

This seems like as good as any topic for a first post...

I believe that this example is similar to the HEFAP example in the following manner.

By betting the flop, the potential gut-shot player is getting proper odds to make the call. By waiting for the turn, your bet or raise will be large enough to not provide proper odds for a gut-shot draw.

With that being said, I think this hand is different from the HEFAP example in that you still have 4 outs to improve and the HEFAP example only has two. Additionally, I think that there are many other hands that you have dominated that would call a flop bet.

I would bet the flop in this situation.

[JinX11]

And again, it is equally as likely that Hero will fill up to a boat (4 outs) as it is anyone with a K or J will catch their gutshot (yes, if both a K and J are out, then combined, there would be 8 outs against him).

Not betting the flop is bad, bad.