2nd nuts, Big Pot

[Lawrence Ng]

First off, not re-raising the turn here is a huge mistake.

I would re-raise the river for another $2000 and bait him into calling. I smell a smaller set here.

The turn raise indicates that he no longer wants you to draw for cheap. If he does have a made straight, I can't see him possibly pumping you on the turn for so much. I think he's fearing you may have a straight and/or flush draw to go along with your ace and is now making you pay.

Raise the river for another $2000.

Lawrence

[Tyler Durden]

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I'd push. Did he really call the flop bet with only a gut shot? Is he that bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling a bet w/ just a gutshot is often a good play if the implied odds are there once you hit your hand.

[gergery]

Seems like this is pure math. You must call $2k to win $4.5k. So if you win >30% of the time your call is correct. A tilter calling from UTG+1 with position on the other biggest stack at the table could certainly have AK, KK, AQ, 88, and somewhat less likely but also very possible are JT, A8. I’d say he would certainly not have JT 70% of the time here. And he would be highly unlikely to put you on JT since you limped UTG, meaning he could be expected to value bet any of those other hands. So I think you must call at minimum.

As for raising, the hands noted above are dealt more often collectively than JT and are also more likely to be played from UTG1. And, I would expect most of those hands to call any raise you make. So you are likely to be ahead when called maybe 55%-65% of the time. Since a push that is called is laying you 11.5 to 9 odds, you only need to be ahead when called around 45% of the time. And of course a small % of the time he’s bluffing a missed heart draw. So raising seems slightly more EV+ than just calling, but certainly riskier and very opponent/read dependent.

--Greg