AQo Checkraising the flop with overcards

[SomethingClever]

Checkraising just doesn't seem to do anything, whether the table is loose and passive or weak/tight. If they're L/P, you won't isolate. If they're weaktight, you can isolate with a single bet, rather than two.

Also, what is he folding on the river that he's called the whole way with?

I believe the standard line would be bet the flop, bet the turn, check/fold the river UI.

[MagicRat]

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Checkraising just doesn't seem to do anything, whether the table is loose and passive or weak/tight. If they're L/P, you won't isolate. If they're weaktight, you can isolate with a single bet, rather than two.

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Wouldn't check-raising get rid of gutshot draws or would their implied odds still make calling correct?

[MoDOH]

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I think the chances of folding the two players between you and the LAG (who coldcalled once already in a pot not nearly as big), combined with the chances you have the best hand against the LAG, combined with the chances that a LAG will not 3-bet a flush draw or a pair are not that good. I think it worked on this hand, but I don't think it will work often enough. Plus, there is no reason to bet the river.

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The two players between me and CO has already indicated that they don´t like their hands by checking in late position. Unless they are on a flushdraw I think there is a HUGE chance of folding them out with a raise.
CO didn´t CC preflop. he was a poster in this hand, and since he just called my raise I think he can have pretty much any two cards judging by his stats.
And when the flop gets checked to him on the flop I think he will bet here with a lot of hands. I think I have good chances that my hand is good here. Especially since he didn´t reraise on the flop.

I agree that my river bet was a bad one though...

[SomethingClever]

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Wouldn't check-raising get rid of gutshot draws or would their implied odds still make calling correct?


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It depends on the players. If you think you can fold everyone and isolate, I think it's okay. But if the conditions are such that that would work, won't they usually fold for a single bet as well?

If they'll call anyway, you're just pumping up a huge pot with a mediocre draw.

[W. Deranged]

I think that this is an interesting play, but unless used very selectively it is essentially chip-spewing. This is the kind of play I am always tempted to make and 9 times out of 10 I wish I hadn't.

For this play to be useful, you pretty much have to assume the two intervening players are going to fold out (which they did, and probably will almost all the time). So that part of it is okay.

For this play to be correct, you need to gain more in expectation than the cost of the bet itself.

If you raise, assume you fold out the other players. Now, let's say you also increase the chance that you currently have the best hand, and you gain a certain amount of fold equity by showing strength.

Let's assume for simplicity your opponent will either a) fold the turn with probability p or b) call down to the river, in which case you will be ahead with probability w (we'll estimate this around 10%... if you have a reason to believe this number is much higher than 10%, that would obviously be another reason to raise, though we won't look at that variable). Let's assume you win 80% of the time if you hit an A or Q (a pretty reasonable assumption considering redraws and the possibility you are reverse-dominated). We will assume you plan to lead the turn and the river, as you did, in all cases.

Let's consider three scenarios: Your opponent folds the turn, he plays all the way and you hit a card, or he plays all the way and you miss.

1. EV = +14.33 SB (round to 14)

2. EV = .8(+14 SB + 6 SB) + .2(-2SB - 4SB) = +14.8SB

3. EV = .1(+18SB) + (.9)(-6SB)= - 3.6SB

So, total EV= 14p + (1-p)(.24(14.8) + .76(-3.6))

which is positive even if p is 0. The question, though, is whether this play is better than just calling.

Assume you just call, one of the two intervening players comes along. We'll assume, on average, you will make 4 big bets extra if you hit your card and win (which we say will happen 75% if you hit, and you're putting in a raise if you hit). We'll assume you'll call the turn, there are no further raises, and you'll fold the river unimproved.

Then, EV= .24(.75)(18) + .24(.25)(-7) + (.76(-3)) = +2.34 SB

If we set the EV's for calling and check-raising equal to each other, I get that you need the CO to fold 11.5% of the time for this play to be better than just calling down. Will he do that? If he's really a LAG, my guess is probably not.


There are a whole lot of really strong assumptions in all of this, and I hardly claim this is totally representative of reality. My only point is that, for the raise to be better, you need to be sure that the CO is going to fold a significant number of times, somewhere on the order of 10-15% minimum in order for this play to be better than calling.



This doesn't consider the other possibility of leading-out, which may be the best of all. I'll let others argue for that. I'm just wanted to mess around with the numbers.

[MoDOH]

No way was I planning on betting this flop into 5 players with only overcards. I checked to see where I was at. When CO bet out and it was folded to me I thik raising is by far the best alternative. I can´t really fold this as it is very possible I actually has CO beat here (He is a LAG,he posted preflop,he is checked to on the flop and could bet pretty much anything here).
And if I am going to play this hand I might as well raise to try to get HU with CO. And looking at the action on the flop I think it´s very likely that a raise by me here will fold out the other two players...

Turn bet is easy since he just called my checkraise and a blank fell.
Now on the river I agree that I might have screwed up. I think that Check-calling is best here. No way am I check-folding this..

[SomethingClever]

Sorry, I didn't mean to suggest that you should USUALLY bet into the field on this one. I was saying that if you think the table is weak-tight, you might. That was definitely not clear in my first post. I quoted a "standard" line that in my head applied to tight tables.

Also, I got a little caught up in trying to decide what to do in extreme situations (extremely loose or tight tables). I think your line is good given CO's style and position.

What was your plan if it was checked around.... bet the turn? Or go for the checkraise there against CO?

[MoDOH]

If it was checked around on the flop and checked to me on the Turn I would check-fold the Turn regardless of who bet out...

[amulet]

vs 6 people, you miss the flop, your done.

[amulet]

now that i read the other posts, i don't understand something. why did you post if you don't want to hear what most say? it seems most think you did not play this correctly, it happens, but learn from it if you post a question.