Hidden dead hand with strange opposition; thoughts?

[nate1729]

By the way, my equity, depending on what the others actually have, is between 19.5% and 22%, once you kill the last queen.

[nate1729]

Thanks for the comments. 5579 might have *called* the raise on fourth cold, but was he correct to do so? (If he wasn't, was I actually obtaining any of the equity?) What about the hypothesized QJTT? Where is the money from those calls going?

[Andy B]

Obviously, calling two bets with a split pair of Fives with one of your Fives gone is not the path to riches in this game. If you are less than 25% in a four-way pot, though, the money he's losing isn't going to you; it's going to the money favorites. You had AK2s as a money favorite in one of your scenarios, and I would guess that killing your other Queen would make him an even bigger money favorite.

[nate1729]

Now, you're the big cheese around here, and you're probably right, but since it will probably take two pair or better to win, don't I want a horrible hand like 595 calling lots of bets cold? I know most of his money is going to the hypothesized AK2s, though there's no guarantee that hand was even out there, but the issue is whether my part of his loose calls is outweighed by his chance of winning the pot, which is pretty darn low, right?

----

OK, so I just went to twodimes and ran some more numbers, and having 595 out of the pot increases my chances of winning from something like 21% to something like 36%, depending on what exactly is out there. So, turns out he's a bigger threat than I thought, and very little of his money is going to me, and Andy B is right once again. All hail Andy B.

[Andy B]

Without going to twodimes myself (who has time? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]), I would guess that the reason that your Queens jumped from a money dog to a money favorite was that your Fives were suddenly live again. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I can't imagine that having him in there hurts you much, as he's a longshot to make something that beats Queens-up.

[nate1729]

Goddamnit, why don't I ever remember to kill the cards in twodimes. Of course, perhaps the whole point of this thread is that I don't remember to kill the cards in my mental inventory when I'm actually playing.

Thanks for the comment.