A losing play?

[Saborion]

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This is a viable option, if you're capable of folding to a check/raise.

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Given the board, I'd fold to a check-raise. Especially since me raising the turn instead of the fold is so much more powerful, meaning the check-raiser must have a better hand than normal. Or if raised by the PFR.

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There is no clear cut way of determining whether you are ahead or behind here. That said, I think you need to do your best to get to a cheap showdown which is best done by raising the flop rather than the turn.

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In a pot that is becomming big, if it's unclear that you're ahead of behind, I think the best way to play is to protect your hand. I mean, I got to a fairly cheap showdown as well. Not betting the turn if checked to in this spot is terrible in my opinion.

[Saborion]

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You'll need a very loose passive table to limp with A7s after only 1 limper.

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90 % of the 2/4 tables are very loose and passive.

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The turn raise is iffy, Only the Button is going to fold. So your raise doesn't really protect your hand as He's folding roughly 2-6 outs.

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I'd love to see him fold a 4-outer on the turn, hence the raise.

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Or he pops you with his slowplayed set. That'll be fun!

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Are you suggesting that I simply call down? That will cost me 2 BB. If I raise and can get the button to fold a hand with which he would be correct to call if I only had called, then I'm better of investing those 2 BB at the turn and go for a free showdown. If he 3-bet, so what? Easy fold. Cost me 2 BB, the same as it would've cost me to call down but without the possible fold by the button. That's not entierly true though, since if the button 3-bet me on the turn, he sure would've raised if I had only called, meaning I would have to fold anyway.

[Saborion]

BB had Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for flopped open-ender.
MP1 had J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for flopped middle + gutshot.
My hand held up.

I limp with this hand in EP/MP after one limper all the time. The tables are loose and passive enough for that in my opinion. A few of you complained about this, so either you are too tight or I am too loose, and I doubt the latter to be the case.

The flop is a call, given that I have top pair + a backdoor flush draw in a big pot. Disadvantage is having the PFR behind me, and the board being scary.

Turn brought a safe card. The PFR didn't raise the flop so he either has a strong hand, or KK/QQ or a lower PP. MP1 appears to not have a powerhouse either since he's only calling. There's a posssibility of me having the best hand here, so I'll raise and try to drive the PFR out. If the best hand I'm up against is a better top pair, meaning it'll still cost me the same as calling down, but without having the chance to get rid of the PFR.

River I decided to check since there was about 50/50 if I was up a better top pair. I'm not sure, but I believe that most players does not bet A2 into the PFR on a board like that. Am I wrong?

Looking at the results and the way the hand went down, I'm sure a river bet is correct if MP1 calls, since we're 50/50 to be up against a better top pair, and MP1 will provide an overlay. Right?

[StellarWind]

Preflop is OK at most 2/4 tables. Remember how loose/passive you say Party 2/4 is as you read the following.

You have a weak made hand with very little drawing potential. This is a clear raise-or-fold situation on the flop. If this hand is worth playing, it's worth protecting.

The problem is this hand is not worth protecting. Fold the flop. Versus the PFR you are behind AA, JJ, TT, KQ, AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, and A8. You are ahead of KK, QQ, 99, 88, KJ, and QJ. BB is betting through you and usually has an ace or better. MP1 could also have a better ace. You aren't ahead here very often. What do you plan to do when the PFR auto-raises the flop and they start to play ping-pong with you as the ball?

Your opponents also have much the better of the outs situation. When you have the best hand the PFR usually has 6-9 outs and your other opponents probably have plenty more. Plus your kicker could die at any second and chop with BB and/or MP1. Even when you are ahead you probably average only 50% pot equity.

When you are behind you frequently are drawing to the backdoor flush only (AA, JJ, TT, KQ, AJ, AT). Even against AK/AQ your three outs to pair your kicker are severely tainted by a 13-out redraw.

There is no doubt that you can win this pot sometimes by toughing it out. But your pot equity is too small to justify the necessary investment.

[sthief09]

I think folding the flop is waaaaaaay weak tight. fearing an A being out there is like fearing trips on a paired board. there are only 2 left. plenty often you have the best hand and it's 1 SB to continue. I don't see how this is a raise or fold situation. why not call and let the button tell you if he has a hand? if he raises the field you can fold on the turn. if he just calls, proceed how he did. there's no way folding is right on this flop for this cheap

[StellarWind]

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I think folding the flop is waaaaaaay weak tight. fearing an A being out there is like fearing trips on a paired board. there are only 2 left. plenty often you have the best hand and it's 1 SB to continue. I don't see how this is a raise or fold situation. why not call and let the button tell you if he has a hand? if he raises the field you can fold on the turn. if he just calls, proceed how he did. there's no way folding is right on this flop for this cheap

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So if Button raises with a worse hand as he often will your plan is to call and then abandon your 1 BB when you don't improve on the turn? What if you get 3-bet? And if Button smooth calls with a big hand you'll bet/raise the turn in front of him? Or maybe BB just bets the best hand three times while you call him down (or possibly make it worse by raising the turn). The truth is you won't know when you should fold.

Your trips comparison is terrible. This is an ace we are talking about. We have a PFR and a blind who is leading into three people on an ace-high board. Plus we are behind many common hands without an ace.

What range of hands do you put unknown 2/4 BB on? How likely is he to be betting a worse hand?

Unknown PFR is a favorite to have a better hand than yours. Aggregate PFR% for Party 2/4 is under 6%.

Given the nature of the board I assume that MP1's call shows something that at least has outs against you and he could easily have a slightly better ace. Overall if you have the best hand 20% of the time that would be fortunate.

But your problems just begin with the flop. Let's assume you have the best hand. Suppose PFR has KK, BB has QJ (middle+gutshot) and MP1 has a worse ace. PokerStove gives you 43% equity. Or BB A2, MP1 KT, and PFR 99 = 38%. Not fair to give anyone an ace? How about PFR KK, BB KJ, MP1 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]=57%?

There is just no way you can make money playing this.

[djoyce003]

I like it. BB could be leading a straight draw or something but you could also be behind to a better ace. Your raise scared him off however, so he might have a weak ace like you. I like the free showdown. You are only going to get called by hands that beat you so a value bet is real thin here. Maybe only worth a bet because of the other caller.

[Saborion]

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But your problems just begin with the flop. Let's assume you have the best hand. Suppose PFR has KK, BB has QJ (middle+gutshot) and MP1 has a worse ace. PokerStove gives you 43% equity. Or BB A2, MP1 KT, and PFR 99 = 38%. Not fair to give anyone an ace? How about PFR KK, BB KJ, MP1 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]=57%?

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Hums. If we have that kind of equity we're very wrong to fold, aren't we?

Say the PFR had KsKc, and the rest of the players had what they had. My equity in that spot is 59 %. Not too shabby.
Now let's change MP1's hand to As9s instead, meaning I'm outkicked. Now my equity is 25.7 %. Still wrong to fold.

[Kaz The Original]

Odd, the river check was really all I liked.

[StellarWind]

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Hums. If we have that kind of equity we're very wrong to fold, aren't we?

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Yes, if you *knew* you were ahead it would be wrong to fold. But most of the time at least one opponent has a better hand. BB is probably even money to have a better hand for this aggressive flop bet, Button is probably a favorite based on a listing of possible PFRs, and MP1 is maybe 10%. Overall you might be ahead 20% of the time.

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Say the PFR had KsKc, and the rest of the players had what they had. My equity in that spot is 59 %. Not too shabby.

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Fortunate that your opponents are all holding each other's outs. This is practically your best case scenario and you still lose over 40% of the time. But wait, there's more. A different button might have raised the flop with KK for a free card (6 outs) and to see where he's at and all the usual aggro excuses. Now the aggressive BB (he bet this flop) counts 1-2-3 callers and 3-bets his OESD. So sorry, you probably just folded the best hand. Unless of course you are willing to be trapped in a war zone. Another example of how hard it is to play this hand correctly.

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Now let's change MP1's hand to As9s instead, meaning I'm outkicked. Now my equity is 25.7 %. Still wrong to fold.

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Unclear. You paid 2.5 BB to win a final pot with 12 BB. You can make a small profit by playing but only if you never get outplayed into folding a chopping hand or paying extra when someone improves. You almost never collect extra money because you are primarily playing for half the pot.

Now it's my turn. Most of the time you are in serious trouble instead of being ahead. Let's give the PFR some good hands and make the other hands the same as they were.

AK/AQ: 14%
JJ/TT: 5%
AJ: 4%
AT: 5%
KQ: 7%

Summary:

1. You are usually behind and drawing thin.

2. When you are ahead it isn't easy to stay ahead.

3. Your bad position and lack of reads ensure that the hand will be very hard to play and you will make lots of expensive mistakes (Sklansky sense).