TT Good Fold?

[shadyfin]

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Th 435391 31.76 931563 67.96 3800 0.28 0.319
Ad Qh 508912 37.13 858042 62.60 3800 0.28 0.372
Ks Jc 422651 30.83 944303 68.89 3800 0.28 0.309

Then by your definition then TT is behind and AQ is the leader.

Anyway - your AA post I agree with. But in my opinion completely different.

[BigF]

Wow, I didn't expect my random rants to turn out this way.
Okay, I admit I'm a moron and I retract all the stupid remarks I made. Nevertheless, this phenomenon seems quite fascinating (to a dork like me anyway).

So it boils down to this. If hand A is a favorite over hand B heads-up preflop and so is A over C, is it guaranteed that A is the favorite preflop if ABC are the only three hands in the game? Seems obvious, the answer is yes, right? Wrong.

Let's simplify the problem and assume overcards will win if and only if one of them pairs up. Assuming AQ will pair up 46% of the time, then it will miss 54% of the time and lose to TT. KJ is the same. Therefore, in the case of AQ-KJ-TT, AQ and KJ will both miss 54% * 54% = 29.16% of the time. And that is the winning percentage for TT. Because it's less than 33.33%, it's safe to say TT is definately NOT the favorite among the three hands.

Thanks shadyfin.

[shadyfin]

Don't retract any remarks, its the purpose of this forum to debate these hands and learn - because, the more I look at this problem the more things change.

Lets say that the hero has Th Ts against Ad Qh and Ks Jh. I think we've covered that in general the call isn't very good, but if this were the case for this particular hand where one palyer is all-in for 2.50 and the second is all-in for 9.50 then is the call profitable?

If the 2.50 player (player A) wins the hand and the 9.50 player (player b) fails to connect then the hero will win the side pot of $14 while player A wins 7.50

So our main opponent is player B given that if we beat him, but fail to beat palyer A we still show profit on the hand.

All-in situations with stacks of different sizes change things quite a bit!

Regardless of all this though I think we can all agree that for this hand in particular the move is FOLD.

[BigF]

Apparently I wasn't intended to argue he shouldn't have folded. It's an easy fold because the reraiser and any callers/raisers behind him could easily have a dominating pocket pair.

As for the different stack sizes factor, it certainly favors the TT hand. But I doubt by much.

Oversimplified analysis is as follows.

AQ $2.5 (all-in), KJ $9.5 (all-in), TT $9.5 (all-in)

main pot $7.5 three handed
side pot $14 between KJ and TT
As I established in my previous post, TT has a 30% shot at the main pot, and a 54% shot at the side pot. Therefore, his pot equity = 7.5 * 30% + 14 * 54% = $9.81 > $9.5

Hmm..., looks like I was a little off again. All of a sudden, it becomes a +EV call.