Bad Situation = Bad Decision?

[brokedickrooster]

It doesn't get any better folks. I folded on the river bet convinced that he had a heart. Every button I pushed along the way of this hand I knew I had blown it, but it was like a whirlpool I just couldn't get myself out of.

That is one of the biggest issues with my game, paranoia. If I raise preflop from the button with KQ and the BB calls, the flop hits a K and the BB leads out, I am always convinced that he has AK. This isn't as big an issue live, as I play more live poker than I do on line and it is certainly easier to get a read face to face than through just analyzing betting patterns on line.

Thanks for all of the input. It seems that the consensus here is to push preflop with this hand in this situation. I will certainly do so next time.

[ghostface]

Also think about the 40% rule. When you are investing that much of you stack on a bet you might as well push since you are gonna be committed on the next round to push it in if you get called no matter what. There are some exceptions I guess but you can figure them out.

[lorinda]

To help combat the paranoia, look at the push as protection.

Sure you might lose your stack, and from time to time (In fact more often than you'll like) you will.

However use your own paranoia to convince yourself it's correct.
If you don't push, you're going to be in this spot again, so the push means that if you make a mistake in the pot, it will only be one mistake, and it won't be a big one.

Lori

[OldLearner]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, because your raised, and he called preflop, you can put him on a range of hands that DOESNT allow him to pair this flop (well, ok, you cant be sure, but its unlikely) Two broadway cards, or most any PP would be a reasonable read at this point.


[/ QUOTE ]

You really think the big stack SB limps in heads-up with 2 broadways or any PP here? 4 handed (on the bubble) of this 50 SNG? I don't think that's a very reasonable read at all.

A more reasonable read for a limp from SB here is any 2 (Kx, Qx, suited, unsuited connectors, 1 or 2 gappers). Broadway overcards or PP...least likely. Ax should be very unlikely here as well.

Also, 4 hearts on board on the river and he bets my last 650 into the pot of 4000. Does he actually do this here WITHOUT a heart? Sure he was the big stack (hero was 2nd), but this hand seriously dented his stack as well. I think he checks it down on the end UNLESS he has a heart because he knows he cannot get hero to fold with his 650 bet into a 4000 pot on the end.

They are on the bubble here. Call me uber weak tight but I seriously think I may fold here with an outside chance of still cashing.

[MrX]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Final four of a $50 SNG on PP.

Blinds are 200-400 and I am 2nd in chips with 2650
I am in the BB and get AKs
Folds around to SB who calls and I raise to 800 - He calls
Flop is 2-3-5 with two hearts
He checks, I bet 400, he calls
Turn is Kh
He checks - I bet 800 - he calls
River is 4h
He puts me all in for my last 650.
Do I call or fold?
How badly did I misplay this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, because your raised, and he called preflop, you can put him on a range of hands that DOESNT allow him to pair this flop (well, ok, you cant be sure, but its unlikely) Two broadway cards, or most any PP would be a reasonable read at this point.



[/ QUOTE ]

Your statement is so untrue about being able to put the SB on a range of hands here. He completed the small blind and then called a MINIMUM preflop raise by our "hero". Because our hero did the WORST possible preflop action here (besides accidentally folding)..he cannot put the SB on any range af hands here.

Do you think the BB is folding AXs or a suited connector to a min raise preflop..heck no he is not folding. So the ability to put the SB on a range of hands here is not possible. In fact I would not be surprised at all to see Ace-rag from the SB.

Preflop action..you must rasie and a lot more than the minimum here. All in is the optimal and virtually only acceptable play in this situation.

Flop play I will not analyze since you will never be in that situation again.

The river call is hard given the 4 suited board and without knowing the stack sizes of the other 2 opponents it is impossible to give any meaningful advice on that decision. If you will be near a remaining opponent in chips then folding may be an option, otherwise you need to call and hope for that 5% of times you have the lead.

MrX

[captZEEbo1]

Allin preflop works, wouldn't be bad to get a call, although taking down blinds is worthy. you should DEFINITELY allin the turn though. If he already has the flush, so be it. A bigger raise is best though preflop. AKs is a vulnerable hand. If he limped from the sb, he is likely calling a min riase, and a missed flop (1/3) is a hard one to play.

[Myst]

[ QUOTE ]
Allin preflop works, wouldn't be bad to get a call, although taking down blinds is worthy. you should DEFINITELY allin the turn though. If he already has the flush, so be it. A bigger raise is best though preflop. AKs is a vulnerable hand. If he limped from the sb, he is likely calling a min riase, and a missed flop (1/3) is a hard one to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you gotta go all in on the turn. Its more likely he was calling with a high heart than having 2 in his hand.

[tigerite]

Preflop - push.
Having failed to do this for some reason in this hand.. then either check behind on the flop or make it a decent bet of about 1000. 400 into a pot of 1600 reeks of weakness, I am amazed the SB didn't push you all in here. I would have. Assuming you reach the turn, without all your chips in the middle for some bizarre reason, now they go in.

Edit: Screw the idea of betting 1000 on the flop, it commits you, so if you are going to bet this flop push all in. If not, check, then push the turn 100% of the time.

[Strollen]

I am sympathetic with the Preflop raise. Gosh I have AK and want to win more than a single BB. So if I can get my opponent to call a raise and than suck out on him why not. Of course the folks with more experience than me say Push... so prolly listen to them.

At the flop check. The min raise accomplish 0 except say I am still proud of my hand but boy I missed that flop.

At the turn push. You seem to be ultra paranoid about a flush. The odds are considerably less than 50% that your opponent is suited, and if he is suited only 25% of the time it is with hearts. So at least 90% of the time on the turn he doesn't have a flush. Stop worrying about it you have TPTK and 9 outs on the river.

You opponent will probably call with kings, or any pair+ heart and good chance you'll win a huge pot.

[MrX]

[ QUOTE ]
I am sympathetic with the Preflop raise. Gosh I have AK and want to win more than a single BB. So if I can get my opponent to call a raise and than suck out on him why not. Of course the folks with more experience than me say Push... so prolly listen to them.



[/ QUOTE ]

Bad thinking..you are not winning a big blind here. If you push and he folds you are winning TWO big blinds here..you posted and that BB is not yours anymore. Does winning 800 chips by pushing sound a lot better than winning 400, well of course it does.

this is why you are pushing and even happy with a fold. Winning 800 chips here is almost 10% of the total chips at the table and adds a nice cushion to our opponents stack.

MrX