Call or raise this river --15-30 PP

[PokerStudent]

If you belive in calculations of odds (using texas hold'em calculators) you should raise.

[AAeyes]

Raise. The only hand we're really worried about is JT. You still figure to get called by two pair or even a smaller set that he may have played that way. He also might not reraise without QT which is an unlikely holding given the check raise. If he does reraise call that too.

Best Wishes

AAeyes

[TStoneMBD]

OMG, 6K posts in 10 months? This must be the neverlose bot upgrading all his small stakes knowledge in his database.

[sthief09]

I am a sicko...

[DeezNutz3]

I think the bb might have a hand like KJclubs and I would have folded the turn, this is a moot point so now I raise the river and call a 3 bet.

[Bill C]

My take on this hand is this: Hero is representing a big pair pre and post flop, and Bb has checked both rounds, suggesting that he buys the "big pair."

But the turn is like the "fulcrum" of the hand. A non-club Jack hits and the formerly passive Bb now beciomes the aggressor! He has taken the initiative, and by his check raise, he's saying he can beat the "big pair". At this point, Hero has only a moderate size pair, and looks to be behind. I think he should have folded at that point, or else raised if he thought Bb didn't have him beat. I don't see any place for a call. Bb could have quite a few hands, and several would beat Hero (eg J-J), and some others would have put him ahead of Hero, such as 8-8 or 7-7. He could have Axc, and I suppose he could have had J-10, J-9 or 10-9, but from his actions I'm putting him on J-J.

The 9h falls on the river and Bb bets right out. He could have a set and if he has any 10 he could have a str8. Since he has come this far, and the pot is pretty big, Hero should call. But given the real chance he is behind, I don't see Hero raising at this point.

In fact I think he should have folded on the turn.

Just my $.02 worth.

bc

[anatta]

You might be right about the turn fold. Its player dependent obviously, but its important to have a default play against unknowns, and this might be the play. I am not sure. Honestly, I probably tend towards a turn fold in live play where I think less "moves" are seen.

If you are going to play on, do you really think re-raising is mandatory? If your opponent does have the nuts or another big hand, you risk a cap. You have quite a few outs against a lower set/two pair, and even crappy chop outs vs. T9.

I am not sure how often players will check-raise this turn on on a semi-bluff draw or total bluff. But even if its 10 percent of the time, I think this favors just calling the turn check-raise and letting him bluff off his money on the river if he misses, and saving you money if he hits his draw.

[Riverman]

What hand are you giving him on the turn that includes a 10? On party this is usually two pair on the turn, or a pair and some draw. Raise and pay off a 3 bet.

[Bill C]

My experience is only with "live" play, and I'm trying to develop my game, with much less experience than you. So I appreciate your response.

My thought on the "raise or fold" is that Villain has taken the initiative, and my call here basically gives him the greenlight to bet right out on the river, so it's going to be two bets, at a minimum, to a showdown, and no chance of him folding.

On the turn, Hero had had top pair, but when the Jack fell, he no longer did, plus he faced a lot of aggression. Sudden changes in betting, going from check-call to check raise make me think something very good has happened for Villain.

I felt like Hero, at this point, had a 2 outer, was probably behind, and should fold. I felt much stronger about the fold than a raise here, but with so many questions remaining about what Villain had, I thought a raise might clarify things. If Villain was bluffing or semibluffing, he might lay it down. If he reraised, I would lay it down. If he just called it, I might get a free showdown from there on.

So it was, hopefully still only 2 more bets this way, but with a chance to win right now. And of course, we didn't know about the River 9h yet.

Thanks again for your response!

Bill

[mrwatson23]

I raised, he reraised, I called, he showed T8 for a rivered straight. Folding the turn might be right in a live game where you know the player, but in this game, the players make too many aggressive moves on the turn to just justify a fold when you are getting 7 to 1. But on the river, I am still not sure that I was the necessary 2 to 1 favorite to justify a raise.

Thanks for all the responses.