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  #11  
Old 12-11-2004, 10:36 PM
BlackAces BlackAces is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Posts: 12
Default Re: Folding AQ on semisteal

[ QUOTE ]
Ok I don't understand why folding here is the right play. Pot odds are greater than 2-1. You are a roughly 45-55% dog against pair JJ or below. calling here is +EV chip against any thing except for KK, AA, or AK. If you lose you aren't even out.

Don't people blind steal with hands like Ax, Kx, and QJ? how do you know that the CO has a great hand as opposed to merely a good one?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think the key here is that villain is loose/passive. I'd be much more apt to put a LP player on a huge hand after a limp-reraise than a LAG. I seriously doubt a LP player would be messing around with a coinflip hand, at least not enough to make this a +EV play.

Fairly easy fold.
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  #12  
Old 12-12-2004, 01:21 AM
Strollen Strollen is offline
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Default Re: Folding AQ on semisteal

[ QUOTE ]
I think the key here is that villain is loose/passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok thanks this makes sense because

Ghost's comments
[ QUOTE ]
I figure to be a small favorite/big dog if I call and thats not a situation I want to be in with 5 left and be left with 3xx chips.



[/ QUOTE ] didn't make sense.

AQ is a small dog (against pairs) and a large dog only against AA, KK, AK and big favorite against a range of hands that look pretty good in 5 player game Ax, KQ, even QJ.

I know that if I saw somebody stealing a lot from the CO or button and I had a good hand but not great hand. I'd push a lot, but I'm loose agressive.
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  #13  
Old 12-13-2004, 01:43 AM
ghostface ghostface is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: NC State
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Default Re: Folding AQ on semisteal

Yeah I botched the part about big dog/small favortie. I dont know what I was trying to say there. Basically I didnt want to enter a coinflip for most my chips. I know now to raise less.

Another question I have is in this tourney I wasnt stealing even once an orbit (less than my fair share), so is this enough reason to think that the limper has a hand I dont really want to mess with since he may respect my raises since they arent coming too often?
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  #14  
Old 12-13-2004, 02:07 AM
ilya ilya is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Party Poker
Posts: 460
Default Re: Folding AQ on semisteal

Knowing the other stack sizes would be useful. However, barring that....
If you are confident about your loose/passive read, I think this is a fold, considering the suspicious limpUTG/re-raise pattern.
I think, though, that it also depends on
a. what you figure the raiser's image of you to be (have you been raising a whole lot? that can drive even an L/P player over the edge) and
b. how agressive the table as a whole has been (if many/most hands were getting raised preflop, the raiser might have been more likely to just limp with AA-KK (provided you think he was alert to such things)).
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