Odds to Chase?

[btspider]

i have a bad habit of editing my posts after submitting them, maybe it glitched somewhere.

its just a discount like any other. if its 50% likely to be raised once (you'd obviously call the raise), then you are pretty much putting in 1.5 bets, so do your pot odds calculation with that (and the expected pot size when all turn action is done).

if its 30% likely to be raised.. then do a weighted calc:

1.3 bets into a (.3 * <pot size when raised) + .7 * (pot size when not raised) expected pot. then apply your other discounts.

honestly i just made this up, i assume its correct tho [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Octopus]

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I personally would never chase a gutshot to the river, no matter what kind of odds I had..

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This is clearly wrong.

[prox]

You fold because you did not improve and others may have.

Gutshots are marginal draws anyways, but are only acceptable with the right flop and further implied odds. Once you miss on the turn, you lose a round of implied odds .. not to mention it now costs a big bet to chase to a hand that may not win.

In your example, the turn paired the board. Therefore, you may already be up against a boat. If not, you could easily be rivered by a flush or a boat. Even if you were only up against trip jacks on the turn, you had callers behind you and very likely could have been trapped with raises.

Frankly, even if the turn looks like a harmless blank.. I would let go of the hand.

[Octopus]

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I'd fold the flop. The spectre of the preflop raiser raising after me catching me in between has me picking a better spot to chase. You're drawing to a hand that might not win even if you hit.

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Even if he knew he would be raised here, it would not be too wrong to call. He would be getting at least 12-1 in current pot odds (making the assumptions that only the raiser and those already in would stay and that no-one would re-raise). He does not know that he will be raised, so folding the flop is wrong.

[prox]

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I personally would never chase a gutshot to the river, no matter what kind of odds I had..

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This is clearly wrong.

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You're entitled to your opinion, but I don't think I give up anything to avoid the risk of being trapped for big bets on a mediocre draw.

In order for the pot to be quite big, there would probably have to be a preflop raise or a lot of action on the flop. I just don't see many circumstances where I would play a POS like 65s preflop when raised , or being trapped with a gutshot draw with lots of betting on the flop. The only gutshots plausible would be with high cards, and you just have to expect at least a raise on the turn - and then a very real possibility that your gutshot may counterfeit with someone to win a split pot.

[Octopus]

I didn't say I thought he should call the turn here. (I don't.) I said that failing to call profittable draws, even long shots, is wrong.

[droolie]

I disagree. Why assume it won't get reraised by the flop original flop bettor? It could easily get capped by the original raiser then how do your odds look? Even if this doesn't happen one of your outs puts a three flush on the board so you can't call this a true 4-outer. Your 12:1 odds are only good if your draw is a solid four-outer to the nuts on the turn.

With this hand you kind of need to get the 4 on the turn because you probably wont have the odds to see the river if you miss. Even if you catch the non-4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 to make the str8 on the turn there are tons of redraws that kill you on the river. This is a marginal call drawing to a hand that is not the nuts. You have 9 players on the flop most of whom have odds to draw to a flush. Saying this fold is wrong is wrong.

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

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I personally would never chase a gutshot to the river, no matter what kind of odds I had..

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This is clearly wrong.

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You're entitled to your opinion, but I don't think I give up anything to avoid the risk of being trapped for big bets on a mediocre draw.

In order for the pot to be quite big, there would probably have to be a preflop raise or a lot of action on the flop. I just don't see many circumstances where I would play a POS like 65s preflop when raised , or being trapped with a gutshot draw with lots of betting on the flop. The only gutshots plausible would be with high cards, and you just have to expect at least a raise on the turn - and then a very real possibility that your gutshot may counterfeit with someone to win a split pot.

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Well, you are also entitled to your opinion, but it's weak-tight and frankly, wrong. If you are ever folding a gutshot draw to the nuts, closing the action, and getting more than about 9:1, you are losing money. And that is just one of many situations where chasing a gutshot is correct.

[Piiop]

The biggest reason to fold the turn is your position to the bettor. There could possibly be a raise behind you, but more importantly if you hit on the river you won't be able to extract any extra bets. In fact, if you hit on the river and it's checked to MP1 and he bets the correct play would be to call hoping for overcalls.

Even so, the turn call is still correct. You don't need to discount your outs for the possibility of a full house because it's unlikely someone has J7,J3, 33, 77, or J4. It's possible, of course, and if you want you can take away like .25 of an out. However, you should discount to like 3.5 outs due to the flush draw.

In summary, you played the hand fine.

[Octopus]

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I disagree. Why assume it won't get reraised by the flop original flop bettor? It could easily get capped by the original raiser then how do your odds look? Even if this doesn't happen one of your outs puts a three flush on the board so you can't call this a true 4-outer. Your 12:1 odds are only good if your draw is a solid four-outer to the nuts on the turn.

With this hand you kind of need to get the 4 on the turn because you probably wont have the odds to see the river if you miss. Even if you catch the non-4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 to make the str8 on the turn there are tons of redraws that kill you on the river. This is a marginal call drawing to a hand that is not the nuts. You have 9 players on the flop most of whom have odds to draw to a flush. Saying this fold is wrong is wrong.

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If I KNEW it would be raised (much less reraised), I would fold; I just said it wouldn't be too wrong to call. We do not know it will be raised; typical Party .5/1 players are overly passive; they don't raise often enough and they certainly don't 3-bet enough. He has a significant overlay to call for 3 outs here (he is getting 20-1 in current pot odds!); more than enough to cover the redraws and the possibiblity of being raised. If it is raised (or reraised) back to us, that would stink, but I do not think that is likely enough to fold here. (Plus the flush draw doesn't HAVE to be out there.)

[BTW: If there is a flush draw out there, he is not folding for any number of bets. He would call a cap cold. Why is that relevant? (And a non spade 4 *would* give him the current nuts.)]