Mmm...fun KK hand.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
BB calling 2 cold on the flop, then leading out the turn, looks suspicious to me, LAG or not.
I'd like to think I fold after the 3 bet on the turn, unless my read on him is really maniac.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I might've been able to fold, but I think he's capable of pulling this play off with other cards than a 5. He'd play this way with AQ and possibly even KQ, I think.

I don't think the river fold is really debatable here at all. I'm not good here close to 1 in 28. I'm really wondering if calling down is better than raising the turn, though.

Rob

[btspider]

a turn fold would be bad.. you have odds to hit your set.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
a turn fold would be bad.. you have odds to hit your set.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not quite, but probably close with implied odds (getting 21.15:1 if it's not capped behind me).

I really didn't like this hand, becaues I felt like I got married to my hand.

Rob

[btspider]

right, but i think it will be quite rare that MP2 cold-calls and then caps. if one of the other guys was still to act, that's a different story.

in general, i try to avoid turn raises that still require me to call a 3-bet.. b/c i know i'll usually feel the need to pay off that one extra river bet just in case. folding when you know you have to put in 2 more bets is much easier.

there's no shame in calling down the turn bet. on the flop you had a chance to fold a gutshot from MP2.. so he likely has something you don't mind a call from or is drawing with more than sufficient odds.

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
a turn fold would be bad.. you have odds to hit your set.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point, and folding to the 3 bet is probably wrong.

But when BB leads out the turn, Entity is only getting 11-1. Now, BB could easily have something like top pair, and figure that board pairing didn't help anyone. It's a tough decision. I have to think, though, that Entity's Pot Equity is not great in this spot. If BB has a 5, Entity has 2 outs. If UTG or MP2 are on a draw, a lot of river cards look bad. He may be behind already.

I think it's a tough laydown at 11-1. Entity can't anticipate the action behind me that will give him odds to draw to his 2 outs, and my guess is that his Pot Equity is worse than you would think.

That advice may be weak/tight, so flame away.

[btspider]

sorry, to clarify i meant folding to the 3-bet would be wrong, not the first bet. about the first bet to him:

since the pot is laying about 11:1 when its to Entity the first time, he has roughly half those odds (22:1) just from the possibility of rivering a set. so he only needs to be good 22:1 times to make the first call worthwhile. he definitely shouldn't fold.

[ccwhoelse?]

i changed my mind like ken too.

btspider is right about having the odds to improve after the 3-bet.

i'd still raise the 1st BB on the turn believing i'm ahead. (the problem i have with calling the 1st bet on the turn is that: i don't know where i stand. i lose money if i'm ahead. and i let other draw to beat me cheaply.)

i would cap the turn only if BB was a maniac.

if he's not a maniac, his 3-bet would make me fairly certain i'm behind. i'd have the odds to call. (if i don't have the odds to call, i'd fold to the turn 3-bet)

if I don't improve on the river - like in this hand though, i would fold to the BB's 1st bet, not MP2's raise.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
if I don't improve on the river - like in this hand though, i would fold to the BB's 1st bet, not MP2's raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
Even after BB's 3-bet on the turn, I think I'm still ahead here 5% of the time.

Then it gets raised when a draw-completing card comes. Now I'm not good, not even 1% of the time.

Rob

[ccwhoelse?]

[ QUOTE ]
Even after BB's 3-bet on the turn, I think I'm still ahead here 5% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

then why don't you cap the turn?

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OR - since you don't close the betting on the river AND a draw completing card comes, your hand might need to be better more than 5% of the time.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even after BB's 3-bet on the turn, I think I'm still ahead here 5% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

then why don't you cap the turn?

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OR - since you don't close the betting on the river AND a draw completing card comes, your hand might need to be better more than 5% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
My hand would have to be good 55% of the time to cap the turn, and it isn't good that often. Though a draw completing card comes on the river, more often than not the player behind me isn't on a draw. I need to be good less than 5% (24.25:1) of the time, and I'm probably good 10% of the time on this river card.

Does that make sense?

Rob