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#12
12-06-2004, 07:23 PM
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Re: A Good Problem To Have
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you check the flop? [/ QUOTE ] I like this play for two reasons: 1) You're either way ahead or way behind, one or the other. Keeping the pot smaller should better define his hand. There are a lot of pocket pairs, heck maybe any, that would/could fire there. 2) It sounds crazy but if the turn is a brick as well as the river, you could induce a bluff. However, the ugly part is the board is paired and the bet will be GRANDE. Hope you brought your glasses it's time to read! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] FWIW I push and pray to the poker gods he has AQ, cause he'll go to the felt. 
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#13
12-06-2004, 09:42 PM
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Re: A Good Problem To Have
I agree with your analysis of the flop check. I cant say I disagree with the turn check, but i wonder what the reasons were.
Youre missing one thing with your "push and pray" idea. The idea is that AQ is likely to reraise anyway, and if so, pushing is as good as min-raising. The amount of the raise should be to maximize profit agaisnt the collection of possiblities that villain might have. I tend to agree with Bunky, another $500 seems about right. The thing is, if this player calls the additional $500 wiht only trips after a bet/raise/reraise river scenario, hes essentially calling to catch a bluff. I wonder if villain knows that?
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#14
12-06-2004, 09:48 PM
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Re: A Good Problem To Have
Hold on. Before I shoot down the push and pray idea, how many people here would push on top of the $500 river reraie with AQ if they were the villain? What do you put Hero on that he will call with? AA and QQ seem like real-enough possibilities that I might just call the $500 reraise on the river. But I'm at home now, not at the table, who knows...
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#16
12-06-2004, 10:09 PM
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Re: A Good Problem To Have
[ QUOTE ]
Mediocre, kinda loose regular ($1850) coldcalls, [/ QUOTE ] According to our hero this is why he'll go to the felt w/ AQ. For the same reason I think it's more likely that he'll call with less than fold for the same bet. At what point are we beginning to outhink ourselves? This is, after all a "mediocre player." If I were playing this deep and hero re-raised me on the end for 1.4k, hero can only have one hand. Sure, it's easy to sit here and say that but if you walked off the street and saw this hand only, what other hand would he do this with? True, I may be giving too much credit here. But EV wise, how many times do you think he'll (hero) show you a worse hand where AQ/KQ/44 are good? My guess is not many if at all.
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#17
12-07-2004, 12:04 AM
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Re: A Good Problem To Have
This really looks much more to me like he has a huge hand (boat) rather than trip queens, so if you think he wont fold a boat, push looks best here. First, AQ, 77, and 44 are significantly more likely to be cold-calling preflop raises than QJ or QK (and why would he be checking the turn with these hands anyway?). If you think he would actually be capable of folding 7s or 4s full here, maybe you can just make a pot raise, but I think thats the main point this question hinges on (not how much he'll call with trips). Naturally, if its a bluff he's not calling anything. At any rate, since youre posting this Im guessing you moved in and he folded, huh?
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#18
12-07-2004, 01:56 AM
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Re: A Good Problem To Have
[ QUOTE ]
According to our hero this is why he'll go to the felt w/ AQ. For the same reason I think it's more likely that he'll call with less than fold for the same bet. At what point are we beginning to outhink ourselves? This is, after all a "mediocre player." If I were playing this deep and hero re-raised me on the end for 1.4k, hero can only have one hand. Sure, it's easy to sit here and say that but if you walked off the street and saw this hand only, what other hand would he do this with? True, I may be giving too much credit here. But EV wise, how many times do you think he'll (hero) show you a worse hand where AQ/KQ/44 are good? My guess is not many if at all. [/ QUOTE ] no offense but you're out of your mind. not trying to start a war here, but there a plenty of times where AQ will be more then enough here vs. a checkraise from an avg. player in this spot. you make it sound like only a fool would go to the felt with AQ in this spot. i would not think twice about backing my stack with AQ in this spot. however i think it is highly unlikely the villian has AQ in this spot considering hero is holding AA.
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#19
12-07-2004, 06:22 AM
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Re: A Good Problem To Have
If villain is holding A/Q, it's only beaten by A/A... Why wouldn't he go to the mat? It's the same logic as why our hero would go to the mat with A/A knowing that the only hand that beats him is Q/Q. It's not pushing and praying as much as it is pushing with the knowledge that your opponent can only have one possible hand that could beat you and a load of other hands that he will probably call you with. RBK is absolutely right to not fear going to the mat, as is our hero, but the real question is how much can he extract from K/Q? This is a hand that is vulnerable to every full house, and he's basically hoping that hero has Q/J, A/K(on a prayer) or is on a sheer bluff. I go with the masses and bet 500 hoping he pushes with A/Q.
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#20
12-07-2004, 08:44 AM
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Re: A Good Problem To Have
Hi Mike,
I haven't read all the responses, so I apologize if I'm just regurgitating. Move in. Why would he re-open the betting here, unless he has a hand that can go all the way, or a bluff? If it's one of those 2 you obviously want to push. 3 Queens/bad kicker just calls the 100. I think he made 7s full, or got out of line with KQ or maybe QJ, if he's worse than mediocre. Regardless, I think you get him for everything if he isn't bluffing.
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