ODD Thought- Satellite Bubble Situation

[VinnyTheFish]

I am just looking at chip count. That leans me towards "yes." But I say still say “no.”
(I'd play 1 out of 15 - folding 14 out 15)

Here’s why:
1) The blinds are forcing them to move.
2) You’re hand is weak, so why do you want to double, maybe triple, maybe quadruple a player. There is no need for it. You are not holding one of the best 20 starting hands in hold’em.
3) Sure, you are only risking (AT MOST) not even 10% of your stack. But why would you gamble when you can simply increase your odds of winning by sitting out. (Tournament Poker for Advanced Players by David Sklansky)

Stats from www.twodomes.net

a) versus a medium pair, and live cards (including over pair)

7h 4h 20.19
As Kh 27.92
Tc Td 34.77
Js Kc 16.43

b) versus no pair, and live cards (including over pair)
SECOND BEST HAND

7h 4h 28.36
As Kh 31.08
Tc 2c 22.28
Js Kc 17.34

c) versus all suited cards, and live cards (including over pair)

7h 4h 25.68
As Ks 31.09
Tc 2c 21.13
Kd Jd 21.37

c) versus all bad cards
7h 4h 26.46
5s 2c 14.64
9c 6c 32.39
8d 3d 25.22


You are never a favorite to win. I say “No” simply because it a satellite. No need to build your chip count anymore. Despite a miracle bad run (why risk even putting yourself near it when there is no need to).

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
3) Sure, you are only risking (AT MOST) not even 10% of your stack. But why would you gamble when you can simply increase your odds of winning by sitting out. (Tournament Poker for Advanced Players by David Sklansky)

[/ QUOTE ]

Reread TPFAP, especially the section where he talks about it being more advantageous to bust out of a tournament early if the side games are juicy.

Your odds of winning do not appreciably change from this play. However, the longer you sit at that table, the less time you have to play the juicy ring game you have a 2 BB/hour expectation in. Folding these hands costs you money.

[dmk]

a) its a satellite, all 8 places get paid the same and there are 10 ppl left
b) 3 ppl all-in in front of you - if you call and happen to double 1, hell 2, ppl up, it won't even matter. the extra chance to bust 1 of those 3 ppl is worth it. you're talking about 5% of your stack...

in the situation given (chip stack vs blinds, remaining players, etc) i'm probably going all-in every hand.

[dmk]

one other thing

[ QUOTE ]
3) Sure, you are only risking (AT MOST) not even 10% of your stack. But why would you gamble when you can simply increase your odds of winning by sitting out. (Tournament Poker for Advanced Players by David Sklansky)
...
You are never a favorite to win. I say “No” simply because it a satellite. No need to build your chip count anymore. Despite a miracle bad run (why risk even putting yourself near it when there is no need to).


[/ QUOTE ]

It being a satellite is the sole reason I call here, because you don't need the extra chips. I'm not worried about the small EV of winning, I'm much more satisfied w/ forcing the other players to having a much smaller EV than if I had folded, especially since its a negligable amount of my stack.

I really can't believe a fold is even remotely correct here.

[Cleveland Guy]

[ QUOTE ]


in the situation given (chip stack vs blinds, remaining players, etc) i'm probably going all-in every hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would assume, and I made the assumption, so I get to assume, that the other players are somewhere between 10,000 and 35,000 in chips.

So going all in every hand is not the right strategy, because if you do it against someone who has a decent stack you can really hurt yourself.

[dmk]

gap concept. if you had 35k and could easily cruise into the money, picked up AA and had someone w/ 60k going all-in every hand no matter what, would you call? because i know i wouldn't risk it.

[adanthar]

Yeah, but even some 2+2'ers would call that and 100% of the table at a low buyin sat would so there's no reason to risk it.

If you had 100K, then yeah, you'd push every hand.

[Cleveland Guy]

Well,

I guess it depends on position too. If you had the 60K and had gone in every hand for the last 6 hands, and all of a sudden the 2nd biggest stack goes all in before you act, would you call him?

[dmk]

no, sorry i didn't clarify, i meant open-push. if there's someone already in the pot before you w/ a decent stack, don't bother. in this case, however, there are 3 short stacks, i call this 100% of the time.

[Potowame]

These numbers that you have listed really lean more towards a call in this situation than a fold to me. I am mean unless you hold a monster like AA or KK your not going to be much further ahead or behind with any hand that you call with. And I would rather call here with 74 than KQ QJ. Run your numbers with a hand that you would call with say 99-JJ KQ AQ A10 ect.. It really is only going to swing 5% one way or the other four handed.