A Sklansky hand

[cepstrum]

Hi lil feller -

You forgot one other circumstance --- when the pot is absolutely giant and betting the flop means that your opponents will get good odds to call a single bet on both the flop and the turn. It's not a slowplay in the typical sense; rather, you are giving up on preventing your opponents from drawing out on the turn in order to retain the ability to prevent them from drawing out on the river. And by "prevent" we also mean "charge them too much to call, and don't mind so much when they do call." See Poker Essays III.

The pot is certainly trending large here, and if our hero bets the flop, opponents may get as much as 10-1 to call a bet on the turn. If the flop is checked around, our hero may be able to offer as little as 4.5-1 on the turn (if he's bet into and gets to raise). Big difference, and something to consider.

Good Luck

Cepstrum

[AviD]

LOL CDC in effect like whoa, I concur.

[The Bear]

You are completely misunderstanding the concept, which is debatable even in its most applicable form. If you like money, bet this flop.

[DeeJ]

Yeah, check behind because you might get check-raised by AA [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[lil feller]

Good point. My only problem with that line of thinking is that the board is too scary, and there are too many turn cards that can hurt you. Giving somebody correct odds is bad, giving somebody infinite odds is terrible...

lf

[andyfox]

I suspect you're referring to the concept of checking the flop so that you'll get bet into on the turn and can then raise, charging the others two big bets to continue to that they're likely to fold, thus increasing your chances of your hand holding up since you'll have fewer opponents seeing the river.

The problem with that scenario here is that if you check the flop, a turn bet is most likely to come from early position. It's less likely later position players have checked a Queen or other big hand than the earlier position players. If you bet the flop here, in fact, it's not unlikely you'll be check-raised by an early position player, which will be good for your hand. So I prefer to hit them over their heads with a hammer here, unless and until they show me the error of my ways.

[pheasant tail (no 18)]

I don't think the play you describe is as ridiculous as the replies almost unanimously state. There are 12 bets in the pot and even if you bet and are check raised by the SB, anyone w/ a 9 or a 5 will get 7.5:1 on a call.

So the dilemma is giving a free turn card, that most would pay one bet for anyway (w/ the exception of maybe Ax that can beat you) in order to protect yourself from the river.

W/o any knowledge of the players, I don't have the nerve to check here. If I knew everyone as passive callers who like to chaise for cheap but hate calling a turn bet in a moderate pot w/ few outs (but will call in a big pot), and play underpairs etc. and also I had a good idea that agression would come from my right on the turn (so that I might then make it 2-bets) I might check the flop.

But this is not such a big pot to do this in w/out knowledge of these players.

Sounds like you got beat by a 45 for a river 2 pair?

PT

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 15/30 10 handed. I don't have much experience or specific notes on any of the players involved unfortunately.

I raise 3 limpers from the Button with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - blinds call.

Flop comes Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Should I consider checking this flop if all check to me?

Are maximizing my chances of winning the hand and maximizing my EV equal in this scenario?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ohhhhh, Myyyyyyyy, Goddddddd...

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the play you describe is as ridiculous as the replies almost unanimously state.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh believe me. it is ridiculous.

[Robb]

I titled this post "A Sklansky Hand" not because it is an example of one of David's tenets but merely because I wanted to trick some of the better posters to contemplate its content, right or wrong. Personally, it is their responses that can drive new avenues of thinking about the same problems.

.....and I had forgotten it is similar to one of David's examples. I believe his example was AA in EP or MP. In retrospect the difference between KK and AA may be enough to answer the question in the negative. Checking the flop gives a lone Ace a free ride and those 2 or 3 extra turn cards may be enough to make the flop check with KK a bad play.

However, even with KK:
I probably have in the neighborhood of a 20-35% chance against the field if all stay until the river, with the actual percentage dependent on my opponents' actual hands. Let's say it's 30%. Are maximizing my chances of winning the hand and maximizing my EV equal? Depends on pot sizes for both methods, flop check vs flop bet.

I estimate 4 of 5 will call the flop bet. If I check the flop I can at times make 2 of the 4 drop if I can raise a LP bettor on the turn. Now that assumes certain conditions (facing half or more of the field with 2 cold, not getting outdrawn, etc.) so maybe I only raise my win percentage from 30 to 35%.

Let's assume the average pot in this scenario is $400. I'm foregoing $60 (4 SB's on the flop) in 6 pots (6 pots out of 20=30%). $60x6=$360 but I win a extra pot, $400 by checking.

So theoretically it's possible. The question is: Does checking the flop actually RAISE my win percentage? Maybe someone could run a sim against a typical hand set for my opponents. I've only checked an overpair like this once so I can only guess. That one time was this hand.

Flop was Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]: 2nd limper bet, 3rd limper raised and I 3 bet. All fold to 3rd limper who calls.
River: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I bet and mhig. So it worked this time but......

Someone may checkraise my flop bet and accomplish the same net affect as the proposed method. And the difference between KK and AA in and of itself may be enough that the flop check lowers my EV instead of raising it.

Just some thoughts.