10 Week Challenge : Week 4

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Jay,

but i very much disagree with hand two, in that 'betting out sucks' you'll be very very much surprised at how much KJ doesn't value bet the river here, this all been seen from experience of missing these bets. Also hands like 99 TT (before others ask, yes these hands have been known to raise that k high flop) are possible hands here and almost surely will check behind while they would have called a bet. So yea, i'm not saying the checkraise sucks but betting out doesn't suck either. It's close and if i was vs a player with stats like 30% VP$IP and 10% PFR i'd def. make that river c/r.

Hmm. I've pretty much had total opposite experience versus hands like KJ or KT. It just seems like they can't help but bet top pair/mid kicker on boards like this HU with position. Sure, I've whiffed more than a few times with plays like this versus top pair, but it "feels" like I'm showing a profit with them. I'll have to actually go check now though if you say they check through as much as you do. I don't think I give enough weight to TT and 99 here either, as you said. C/r'ing is definitley my default play here though if I don't have notes on them right now.

GoT

[GuyOnTilt]

how is 56 or JT at all possible?

Because I never use the preview feature. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] The flop was a 7 and the river an 8.

GoT

[1800GAMBLER]

I thought some more about this play and i'm leaning more to it being the right play to c/r even with my experience of KJ checking behind.

The first simple rule is if they will bet and call the c/r more than 50% you obviously c/r. Yet this has two different factors, 1. hands like TT JJ and 2. the miss flush draw.

So the more likely hands like TT JJ are the, more you bet or the more likely he has the bust flush draw and bluffs, the more you should c/r.

With very rough mental math i think if they bet the river at little as 40% of the time with KJ we should be checkraising the river here. With experience/assumptions i'd imagine it bets more than 40% of the time.

[apd138]

I would think making this play would also have the positive effect of letting you showdown for free more often.

[stoxtrader]

my lesson from your thoughts on hand 1:

check-raise bluff the river more.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
my lesson from your thoughts on hand 1:

check-raise bluff the river more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bleh. His friend called. Guys like GoT who will actually fold there are few and far between.

[Trix]

Thats what thought too as it sounds like he wouldnt call less than AA.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
but i very much disagree with hand two, in that 'betting out sucks' you'll be very very much surprised at how much KJ doesn't value bet the river here, this all been seen from experience of missing these bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

they only have to bet slightly more than half the time, and i think they do.