Pocket fives -- isolation attempt

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: If you're reason for just calling the turn were to keep BB in if CO was trying for a bluff-raise, then I'm somewhat inclined to like it. Not very much, though. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

For better or worse, this was my idea.

[Kluddeludde]

...play heads up against the CO when he misses the flop and tries to bluff you out with his junk.

I think this is the problem. If CO had been more straightforward I would like this raise (especially if the blinds were known to be tight), but with such a tricky CO you will never know where you stand and may end up putting in multiple bets with the worse hand.

Kludde

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Would he call with nothing as well? For example, would he call the river with nothing if you 3-bet?

Kludde

[/ QUOTE ]

No, with nothing, I think CO would cap or fold instead.

I thought BB might call with a worse hand, though.

[Rubeskies]

[ QUOTE ]
Rightly or wrongly, I thought BB would play top pair this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have no read on BB. How can you have an idea of how BB would play Top Pair?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Rightly or wrongly, I thought BB would play top pair this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have no read on BB. How can you have an idea of how BB would play Top Pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Point taken.

Basically, I thought CO was a maniac and figured everyone else did as well.

Anyway, I did have a vague read on BB, which was that I thought he was reasonable. I hadn't been at the table all that long, though, and I wasn't sure.

[TaggedYa]

[ QUOTE ]
...play heads up against the CO when he misses the flop and tries to bluff you out with his junk.

I think this is the problem. If CO had been more straightforward I would like this raise (especially if the blinds were known to be tight), but with such a tricky CO you will never know where you stand and may end up putting in multiple bets with the worse hand.

Kludde

[/ QUOTE ]

It is definitely a high variance play but I think it works both ways. Junk will miss the flop a lot more than it hits. When he misses you get paid off big when he hits you loose big. You are committing to go to the river either way but I think it is +EV to the extent 55 is ahead of loose callers expected range of hands. If Hero is the least bit weak/tight this is a suicide plan and I have to agree with you.

The problem as I see it is not that CO is tricky, we want him to bluff. The problem is having little idea what BB’s defense standards are. If he always defends with anything we just have a higher variance and higher return against one random hand (BB) and one hand that is not likely to have big tickets in it. If BB will only defend with good hands and he calls we are toast (he has the good cards that CO doesn’t) but with a good read we could fold. When he calls and we don’t know what it means we loose some of the value of calling the bluffer to the river when we have to fold to aggression from the BB. This is still not a play for the faint of heart but still probably +EV.

Just for my edification (I hate to state things as probable) I ran this against all the hands I think Loosie will play first in from the cutoff and discounted all Skilansky 1,2,3 hands as I think he would have raised them. That left Sk 4-8, all suited connectors and one gapers down to 6-4, and all connectors to 6-5. I left in TT-22 even though I would raise TT here a lot of passives might not. I think this is generous to Loosie. This shows 55% to 45% for 55 taken to the river.

I then added in the BB as a totally random hand. It is then 38% hero, 34% Loosie, 28% random BB. With no way to decide what the BB’s call means I can’t figure it as anything but a random hand but that is ok as our information at the decision point is any 2 cards. It is defiantly +EV and a good play in my book if you have the stones to commit to the river come what may. Of course, there is no reason you shouldn’t manipulate the betting as much in your favor as possible.

TaggedYa

edit for typo transposed a number and had BB at 24% not 28%

[chesspain]

Preflop: I'm not crazy about the raise, especially against a tricky postflop player, unless you plan on going to a showdown HU no matter how the board looks.

Flop: I will go against the grain and say that I don't mind the call. Since neither player is folding, I don't see the "obvious" point of raising, which may only encourage both of them to check to you on the turn. If BB has an ace, he will likely bet the turn again, which will allow you to raise when the bets are double.

Turn: At this point, I would stop messing around and go for the three-bet. The pot already is large, and unless either player slowplayed AA/QQ before the flop, you are a huge favorite. Make it as expensive as possible for either player to outdraw you, assuming that either player isn't already drawing dead.

River: [poster's opinions withheld due to his inability to fatham not having three-bet the turn].

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: I'm not crazy about the raise, especially against a tricky postflop player, unless you plan on going to a showdown HU no matter how the board looks.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I got it heads-up, this pretty much was my plan. Generally speaking, CO would bet if no one else did. If someone else bet, he would call or raise or (very rarely) fold.

[ QUOTE ]
River: [poster's opinions withheld due to his inability to fatham not having three-bet the turn].

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't offer much of an excuse for not raising the turn. At the time, I figured BB was playing against CO more than against me, and I wanted him to bet again on the river with his top pair, if that's what he had.

[alekhine8]

Preflop - With tight-ish blinds, this is a great play but I would probably want a higher pair than fives to do it (maybe 8s). The CO could have some real trash like Q4o, but hes probably got overcards and its a coinflip if it goes to the river. You state he's a tricky player so you are basically committed to showdown - and we haven't even talked about the BB yet.

Flop - No one is going to fold the flush draw for another small bet, so waiting until the turn to raise isn't bad. But I'd still raise.

Turn - You have GOT to 3-bet here. The BB could be drawing dead or have between 4-7 outs. If you reraise, he would be putting in 2 BB into a 10.75 BB pot and getting odds to call with a flush draw (assuming CO just calls). He would be making a mistake to call with anything else - give him the opportunity.

CO could have a flush draw or just about anything given your description. Get money in the pot now while you are a big favorite.

River - Now you decide to wake up?

If CO rivered you with a flush draw, there was probably nothing you could have done this hand to push him out and the advice you are getting would make you lose more this hand - but the math is in your favor.

[Nick C]

CO shows 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for a pair of eights.
BB shows Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for the flush.

I don't like the way I played the hand very much.

Preflop, I agree that my raise isn't so attractive once the big blind fails to oblingingly fold. Ordinarily I'd fold pocket fives in this spot (on the button with just one limper in), but since CO had a tendency to put in a lot of bets postflop with very little (and sometimes with nothing), I decided to play.

Postflop, I was thinking that BB and I both knew CO probably had very little. I was worried BB might have a flush draw (though not enough to stop me from raising the river, apparently), but I didn't want to slow him down if he just had top pair. Still, I agree that my failure to raise the turn was pretty bad.

Thanks for all the comments.