Paradise reload this weekend

[Festus22]

For 15/30 player (which I think Rushmore is), I do not think it's worth it. If he makes 1.5 BB/100 at Party, that means he expects to make $225 in 500 hands. At Paradise, he has to earn $175 to breakeven when the bonus $50 is added. That equates to a rate of 1.16 BB/100. My feeling is that the paradise $30 game is MUCH tougher than the Party version so it's probably -EV to go for the $50.

For small stakes guys like me, it's a no-brainer. My win rate at Party $2/4 is almost right on $10/100 (2.5 BB/100). So if I play 500 hands at Party, I can expect to win $50. So all I have to do is turn even the slightest profit at Paradise $2/4 and I'm ahead after the bonus money.

So for anyone playing probably $5/10 or lower, the Paradise bonus is +EV.

[lastcoyote]

Granny,

I signed up on Paradise using GRANNY a month ago but have not deposited yet. Can I deposit $200 to get the initial $100 bonus and then deposit $500 using TURKEY code to get the $50 bonus?

Can I cash out before working off the bonus?

Will that leave me with $150 in bonus sitting there that doesn't expire?

Thanks.

[jagoff]

the non-expiration facet of paradise bonuses makes it a no brainer

Thanks for the tidbit! Agreed

[GrannyMae]

Can I cash out before working off the bonus?

Will that leave me with $150 in bonus sitting there that doesn't expire?

yes and yes.

i've sent you a PM explaining the rest of what you need to do cuz i don't want to get spammy here. however, the general questions about being able to cashout of paradise with bonuses still pending may be important to others. you can indeed do this.

[GrannyMae]

For 15/30 player (which I think Rushmore is), I do not think it's worth it

how do you figure? seriously, the ONLY reason someone should not take this bonus is if they don't ever want to play at paradise. anyone that plays there, at ANY limit, is giving up free money by not doing the turkey bonus.

[Festus22]

I'm looking at it from an expectation pespective or put another way, will I make more playing 500 hands at Paradise +$50 than I make at my regular game?

Let's say the Paradise $30 game is the toughest on any site (for demonstration purposes only). Even with expert play, I can only make 0.5 BB/100. That would leave me with an expected result of $75 after I play 500 hands.

Now I play the same number of hands at the same stakes against a school of fish on another site. I crush this game for 3 BB/100. So after 500 hands, my expected result is $450.

So if I'm investing the time to play 500 hands, I want to play where my expectation is the highest. And clearly it's the site where I expect to make $450 versus $75 + a $50 bonus.

That's the point I'm trying to make. I think the $30 game at Paradise is tougher to the extent that after I play 500 hands there versus 500 hands at Party, I would expect to be more than $50 ahead by playing at Party so the bonus isn't enough to make up the difference.

Like I said, this conclusion only applies to higher stakes players.

[parappa]

I didn't get this e-mail, probably because I'm outside the US. Does it matter, or can I simply reload and use the turkey code?

[GrannyMae]

I'm looking at it from an expectation pespective

don't go injecting no damn common sense into this!! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

i can't argue that if it is looked at from a standpoint of time invested, there are better ways to spend said time.

my only point was that if you are a paradise player in any form, you might as well take the bonus.

even if someone just plays a couple of multis a month there, they are still working that bonus off. with the ability to cashout without losing the pending bonus, it just seems like a waste not to stick in the pending bonus dollar column.

OTOH, i have almost 1k in pending bonuses at UB and may never play there again. if they had a similar bonus this weekend, i would pass on it.

[drewjustdrew]

Do they even have a $30 game at paradise? I only seem to recall $40. If they have a $30, there aren't many tables. I don't think paradise is any tougher than anywhere else. You can only be talking short term results to think one site offers 2.5bb/100 advantage over another (I know this was just an example, but a very exaggerated one.) In the long run, they should be much closer.

P.S. If you only make .5BB/100 at any site, you need to work on your game because you are missing some profitable plays.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
even if someone just plays a couple of multis a month there, they are still working that bonus off.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is a good point too. I like some of their multi's (even though the blind-structure is a bit faster than Stars).

Since there's no expiry...and no other incentive to work it off quickly (unlike pokerroom where you can rack up enough points in a day to get more in addition to the bonus AND/OR a "free"roll entry) there's no reason to not deposit there and just let it sit if you are so inclined.

For all we know, Paradise might be the place to play 6-12 months from now and there might be a zillion fish there.
If that's the case, you'll have bonus-money there.


FWIW - I'm playing anywhere from 3/6 to 15/30 at different sites now.....but I intend on taking advantage of this bonus. But I do agree that the regular winners at 15/30 are probably better off not wasting their time. But again, it shouldn't hurt to just deposit.


[ QUOTE ]
OTOH, i have almost 1k in pending bonuses at UB and may never play there again.

[/ QUOTE ]


I have you beat. I still have $2.8k in pending bonuses there.
Like you, I'm not sure if/when I'll ever get around to clearing it away.


This has turned out to be a decent stretch of bonuses the last couple weeks...

Pokernow $100
Party $100
Stars $120
Pokerroom $150 (coming up)
Paradise $50 (coming up)
And I still have $200 or so to work off at the Crypto's before the end of the month.

Total bonuses this month of $720.


Time to get cracking!!