My problem with blindly following pot odds

[La Brujita]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you're only 35%, and the pot if 40, and you're facing an all in of 960, you're essentially getting 2 to 1 on your money, so out of 100 times, you will win 2000 chips 35 times and lose 1000 chips 65 times, so you're expectation is at least 500 chips positive. Am I missing something? Is that not the definition of correct pot odds???

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are confusing percentages and pot odds.

1:1 odds is 50/50% (ie a coin flip). That means as long as you are betting any number to win your original money back plus and equivilant amount you are golden. In poker it is impossible to get worse than 1:1 odds.

Roughly a flush will hit 1/3 of the time. To make it worthwhile you need 33% or 2:1 pot odds.

In your example you are getting slightly better than 1:1 on your money, not 2:1.

Pot odds is probably the central concept to nl holdem and I would say (again without any agenda) if you were serious about your flush draw point you should consider taking a break from the 215s.

Edit to say for Orca below odds of hitting flush are roughly 2:1 not 4:1.

I figured I might as well just articulate the point a bit further.

UTG raises all in 1000 chips. Blinds are 15-30, it is folded to you in the BB and you have 1000 chips before your decision.

You need the following ev to make the call:

970/2015 or .481 ev

Expressed as odds that is 970:1045 (what you need to call the bet vs. what is in the pot already).

These are equivalant amounts.

[OrcaDK]

You pot odds for calling is about 1:1, the odds of you getting the flush is just over 1:4... Don't call!

[Greg Zabawa]

LOL, I guess I'm just an idiot when it comes to pot odds. I did get a 33 on my ACT in Math, so I am not an idiot when in comes to that, lol. Sorry for the post, I guess it seems idiotic in retrospect. And for the record I would never call in this situation, just thought pot odds called for it and I was clueless as to why.

[Unarmed]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Ha.

He's pot committed.

[PrayingMantis]

Greg,

I don't want to sound like an ass, but this thread, combined with the thread about you crushing the $215, are really two amazing threads, IMO. The fact that you've won like 15K or something playing about 400 games, without having any idea about pot-odds (or actually, having a completely wrong idea), is exactly why on-line poker is such a profitable game - people can make a killing for a short time simply by running crazily hot - and then they donate it all back, and much more (because they are sure they can beat the game, as their past results "prove").

As an advice - I would suggest going down drastically in limits, until you get a strong grasp of some basic concepts. Then you can climb up and play wherever you feel comforable at. If you don't do that, and keep playing the highest possible limits, with your ideas of the game, I have no doubt you are about to have some very very tough times.

Best of luck.

[Greg Zabawa]

[ QUOTE ]
Greg,

I don't want to sound like an ass, but this thread, combined with the thread about you crushing the $215, are really two amazing threads, IMO. The fact that you've won like 15K or something playing about 400 games, without having any idea about pot-odds (or actually, having a completely wrong idea), is exactly why on-line poker is such a profitable game - people can make a killing for a short time simply by running crazily hot - and then they donate it all back, and much more (because they are sure they can beat the game, as their past results "prove").

As an advice - I would suggest going down drastically in limits, until you get a strong grasp of some basic concepts. Then you can climb up and play wherever you feel comforable at. If you don't do that, and keep playing the highest possible limits, with your ideas of the game, I have no doubt you are about to have some very very tough times.

Best of luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hear what you're saying, and I know this thread makes me look like a complete idiot, but I actually play a very solid game. I never really use pot odds (and with my warped view of them, thank God, lol) to determine my plays, I make plays based on feel. I have however stashed away over $5k of my winnings, so even if I go bust with my current bankroll, I'll be at least that far ahead.

[Cleveland Guy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Greg,

I don't want to sound like an ass, but this thread, combined with the thread about you crushing the $215, are really two amazing threads, IMO. The fact that you've won like 15K or something playing about 400 games, without having any idea about pot-odds (or actually, having a completely wrong idea), is exactly why on-line poker is such a profitable game - people can make a killing for a short time simply by running crazily hot - and then they donate it all back, and much more (because they are sure they can beat the game, as their past results "prove").

As an advice - I would suggest going down drastically in limits, until you get a strong grasp of some basic concepts. Then you can climb up and play wherever you feel comforable at. If you don't do that, and keep playing the highest possible limits, with your ideas of the game, I have no doubt you are about to have some very very tough times.

Best of luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hear what you're saying, and I know this thread makes me look like a complete idiot, but I actually play a very solid game. I never really use pot odds (and with my warped view of them, thank God, lol) to determine my plays, I make plays based on feel. I have however stashed away over $5k of my winnings, so even if I go bust with my current bankroll, I'll be at least that far ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense meant, but this assumes that you don't lose your entire online bankroll that is left, and decide that it was all a bad run, so you figure you can put in your 5K of winnings and build it back up. That last another 2 months, but another "bad run" and you lose that too. Now you are searching for 3000 just so you can play the 215 which you "Know you can beat".

I'm not saying this is you, but I don't know you well enough to say it isn't also.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I hear what you're saying, and I know this thread makes me look like a complete idiot, but I actually play a very solid game. I never really use pot odds (and with my warped view of them, thank God, lol) to determine my plays, I make plays based on feel. I have however stashed away over $5k of my winnings, so even if I go bust with my current bankroll, I'll be at least that far ahead.


[/ QUOTE ]

No way you are a very solid player without knowing anything about pot-odds, and that's true for many other mathematical aspects of the game. You can be a winning player, in certain weak enviroments, but if you are not able to expoit mistakes by "using" pot-odds, you are behind. It's not about being a "feel" player or not. I consider myself as a "feel player" too, actually, but the feel comes *after*, or side by side, with mastering the mathematics of the game. "Feel" with no understanding of pot-odds, for instance, is very very lacking.

Actually, to be more accurate maybe, pot odds are not somehing you "use" or "not use". It is in the nature of the game. And I think you shoudn't be ashamed about "looking like an idiot" here, IMO, You should feel lucky that you now know you have some important stuff to learn.

[Daliman]

Not sure if the specific error of your ways has been addressed, but this is it;

You are figuring the chips you would be calling with into the pot odds. This is incorrect. Pot odds are figured by factoring ONLY chips currently in the pot BEFORE your call, whether you put any of them in or not.

So, in the case of 40 in pot and push, figure calling 1000 for 1040, needing therefore over 50% for the pot odds call to be correct in terms of ONLY pot odds. Obviously, you don't get into these for coinflips for all your $$$ though. I personally would probably need to have an uberdraw to call a draw here.

[FishBurger]

[ QUOTE ]
I never really use pot odds (and with my warped view of them, thank God, lol) to determine my plays, I make plays based on feel.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude. I totally do the same thing. I find that it usually helps if I take a few bong hits before sliding into a game. A little THC really helps expand the boundaries of the mind and lets you see things that you wouldn't normally see.

I think you might want to consider writing a book on the use of feel to beat online games as you seemed to have mastered the technique.