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#12
11-17-2004, 07:30 PM
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Re: flopped straight, but then the plot thickens
[ QUOTE ]
...Because there were still a number of hands they could be on that I could beat I needed to try to be in at the end to see that [/ QUOTE ] So why give free cards if they could have a number of hands that you still beat? [ QUOTE ] As for the preflop bet, not only do I think the pot odds are fine, but the nature of these hands is such that either you flop two pair or a set or a straight or a good draw or your gone. [/ QUOTE ] Would like you to share the odds for this? There were only 2 limpers and you have a junky, low offsuit connector. The fact that they're poor players is nullified by your poor position and terrible starting hand. Fold. 
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#15
11-17-2004, 11:33 PM
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Re: flopped straight, but then the plot thickens
[ QUOTE ]
Would like you to share the odds for this? [/ QUOTE ] He's in the SB and is getting 7:1 on his complete. And hoping the BB doesn't raise behind him, I guess :-). http://twodimes.net/h/?z=615510 Amazingly, he does have almost 20% of the pot, so his limp is correct. -- Scott
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#16
11-17-2004, 11:51 PM
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Re: flopped straight, but then the plot thickens
I took a further look at this, and while it is true that your equity is fairly invariant against "good hands" you lose a lot of equity if someone else is also playing a similar hand down in the dreck, e.g., one person playing a slightly better suited connector cuts your pot equity in half:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=615610 Even someone playing a terrible hand like 84o has a big impact on your equity: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=615625 So in an odd sort of way if you're going to play this hand, you really want to be against good players! -- Scott
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#17
11-18-2004, 01:26 AM
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Re: flopped straight, but then the plot thickens
fold preflop.
bet the turn.
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#18
11-18-2004, 01:36 AM
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Re: flopped straight, but then the plot thickens
Guys, preflop equity isn't necessarily the best argument here because it's based on playing all hands all-in to the river. Monte carlo sims unfortunately can't take strategy into consideration when determining hand values.
This is a CLEAR fold preflop. Your hand has value for the straight only, which you will hit on the flop 1.3% of the time -- that's 75.6:1. This limp is NOWHERE near correct. It's terrible. I'll try to dig up the exact reasons why if no one else beats me to it. Rob
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#19
11-18-2004, 03:07 AM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
UTG A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Button Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] HERO wins 10.5 BB with a straight [/ QUOTE ] Merry Christmas Fold that trash preflop
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#20
11-18-2004, 03:24 AM
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Re: I thought it might be too loose a call
[ QUOTE ]
I did a simulation against AKo, TT and a range of hands Sklansky group 5 or better. My little connectors had slightly better than a 1:6 chance against those monsters. I've got 7:1 to enter the pot, so voila! [/ QUOTE ] Think about this a bit further. This only works if everyone decides to check through to the river. But, that's not what's going to happen. If you flop a straight, you are good to go. If you flop an OESD, at least you have a leg to stand on - though you are still in trouble. if you miss or hit a gutshot, you can't continue against any aggression at all, nullifying a significant portion of your winning hands before you even get to see them. Since you can't win hands that you fold, the seemingly favorable pot odds that you had preflop get wiped out postflop.
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