Standard semi-bluff? NL100 hand

[jslag]

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Looks standard. Do you ever raise preflop in this situation?

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I will raise suited connectors occasionally. Just depends on the table. I would less inclined to raise with 1-2 gappers than something like JTs. That said, it's not completely necessary at this level of play... I'd rather make that type of raise against opponents who know me well.

J.

[BobboFitos]

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Results: Villain goes into the tank. With about 1 second left on his timer, he folded. Afterwards, he said "argh, what did you have?!", "well, nice bet". So maybe he did have KJ or AJ there, who knows. Nice to know it made him squirm a bit.

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NH

[jslag]

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If youre pretty sure the BB isnt on a flush draw, youve got a lot of bluffing outs. The turn gives you a ton of outs that will probably get paid off. Id probably flat call the turn, and then raise any heart/diamond/straight card on the river.

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Excellent point, DBowling. Unfortunately, I didn't know for sure if he had some like Jd Td or Qd Jd, etc. However, I appreciate your comments, I'll keep that in mind next time. Might be able to win an extra bet from him.

Only issue I see is that a lot players will fold to turn or flop raises, but rarely to river raises because they get greedy when there's a lot of money in the pot. They will convince themselves to make crying calls, often defeating your river bluffs. Guess it really depends on the player. A lot of NL100 players cannot make big river laydowns even when the cards and their instincts tell them they're beat.

[BK_]

you shouldnt make this move unless you have stats or notes on the guy. many nl100 players wont even fold top pair there. so absent a read, play it safe and just call. if you do this, you will likely get paid off by both good and bad players. also, the problem with your raise is that it leaves you in a crappy position if he happens to have a big hand and raises all in.

if your stack was short enough to push, semi bluffing would be better since your implied odds if you hit would be smaller than if you had a big stack, and also since you are gauranteed to see the last card if he wakes up with a hand. i think stack size is an interesting point here.

so basically your decision on whether to semi bluff should depend on 2 things: his skill and your stack size. in general, the smaller your stack size, the better semi bluffing here would be (except at levels where you cant make a pot sized raise). also, the better your opponent, the better the semi bluff is. here, you have a large stack and an unknown opponent.

last, he is giving you great odds with his turn bet. if he didnt give you good odds but you thought he semi bluffing would be +EV, it would be the best move. however, even if semi bluffing is +EV here, it is likely that flat calling is MORE +EV.

all signs point to call

[BK_]

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Players at this level will pay off scare cards way too much.

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right.

except the rest of your post sounds like you thought he raised the river, though he actually raised the turn.