The Perfect Storm: Anatomy of a 300 BB Downturn

[Duke]

Yeah I don't think that high post-flop aggression factors are necessarily a good thing. If it's the right play at the right time, then that's cool. Be more picky. I think that anything over 2 is probably too high on the average.

~D

[ResidentParanoid]

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Check-raising is so over rated in online play

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Don't know who's doing the over-rating, but it's just another tool.

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players will raise with like 50% of the hands they would bet on the turn

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A large majority of my check-raises are on the flop.


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players shut down after a check raise

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What if I want him to shut down? It's not just a way of extracting the max.

Also useful against LAGS, who sometimes go into overdrive when you've messed with them a few times with check-raises. Very useful when you want to get heads up, or are heads-up and want to keep the opponent off balance. Like I said, just another tool. If you're doing some of that, your ag factor goes up some. That was my point.

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Don't worry about your "stats" for crying out loud.


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Not sure what you mean by that. If you mean don't obsess over every little stat, then I agree.

[ResidentParanoid]

I agree that aggression for aggression's sake isn't good. A tool to achieve whatever you're going for at the time.

[Blarg]

As I understand things, one of the primary benefits of the check raise is not to get more money out of just the bettor, but either to isolate oneself with the bettor or to force everyone else to invest too much in the hand when they're behind.

Check-raising can give people improper odds to call when it forces them to coldcall two bets instead of just the one they'd have to pay if you'd bet out yourself, and the object of your potential check-raise just calls along. If they don't call, you've worked toward isolating yourself with your target, and if they do call, they've over-invested in a pot while behind and perhaps without the odds to do it.

Either way, it's a real-life, practical consideration when in multi-way pots, not just a matter of bettering a stat.

Heads up, what you're saying seems to hold more true than multi-way.

[James282]

You were giving someone advice on how to "up their aggression factor." Obviously there are plenty of instances where a check-raise is the best play and I promise I don't need them explained to me...but so many starting players(I was this way once) get so obsessed with the check raise they leave numerous bets on the table, both when people check behind and when people would have raised them so they can three bet. As to who is doing the overrating, all of the players I see who are so enamored by the check-raise that you would think that score was kept by who got the most checkraises in instead of who won the most money. You should be very concerned about a 300 bb downswing in your first 20k hands, and I was trying to give you advice, but you can take it or not.
-James

[TheDelChop]

I seem to agree Resident that a huge factor in downswings are the way that your big cards play. Don't let anyone fool you, this is where you make almost all of your money playing poker. If you are suddenly getting drawn out alot on your big cards, it is going to kill you in the long term. For example over the last 12k hands my big cards AA-JJ and AKs have been winning the same % as they were on the last 10k hands, however after much inspection, I find myslef winning $6 with them, but losing to river suck outs to the tune of -$25 when i don't win. This has caused me to experiece a big downswing. If this were to flip flop I'm looking at 12k hands of 4BB/100 poker. So don't get discouraged about it, it will all catch up with you.

[Lansing]

I, for one, find this rather scary. It appears you have been playing pretty much the exact same game, and yet you have had a large downswing. How depressing.

[Blarg]

I agree that "tricky" plays are very overvalued by new players, and often counter-productive. I even take an obsession with tricky or dramatic play as a sign of a new player.

[ResidentParanoid]

Not my first 20K hands, just my last 20K hands. When my aggression factor was low, it turned out I was never chec-raising, so I thought the earlier poster might have the same problem. Thanks for your comments, although you didn't comment on any of my original stats. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[ResidentParanoid]

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I, for one, find this rather scary. It appears you have been playing pretty much the exact same game, and yet you have had a large downswing. How depressing.

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This is a large part of why I posted these results. The swings are really pretty wild and the long run is really the long run. Considering the number of posts we see asking about "what should I do, I've lost X BB", I thought these results show how confident you have to be in your actions, and how long you have to stick with them to be sure you are a winner. (I've been a long term winner at many levels, both live and online, for a long time). One of my big mistakes in the past has been making too many changes in long term strategy in reaction to short term results. One of the benefits of lots of experience for me has been to stick to the program even when things have been bleak for weeks. As many have stated before me, you have to be ready to ride out the horrible runs without self destructing.