Question about Winrate

[Lmn55d]

thanks dawg, thats pretty interesting. One last question...how exactly should you go about selecting a level of confidence? Why would one choose 68% rather than 99% or example?

[uuDevil]

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...how exactly should you go about selecting a level of confidence?

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It depends how big a lie you want to tell. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

I'm not a statistician, so don't take this as gospel: It's somewhat subjective, and often dictated by convention. 50% and 95% are the most common levels I've seen. If you choose a very high level, it may make the interval ridiculously wide, e.g. "I have 99% confidence that I win between -4 BB and +5 BB/100". If you choose a very low level, you may narrow the range but still sound silly, e.g. "I have 1% confidence that I win between 3.0 and 3.1 BB/100."

[SparkyDog]

Is there an easy way to graph the upper and lower bounds of a winrate at various confidence intervals?

[uuDevil]

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Is there an easy way to graph the upper and lower bounds of a winrate at various confidence intervals?

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The simplest way I know is to use Excel or other spreadsheet. It would look something like this: link.

[Lmn55d]

one more thing, what does SE stand for in that equation? Standard something?

[uuDevil]

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one more thing, what does SE stand for in that equation? Standard something?

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Standard Error