Splitting SnGs

[Benholio]

*derail*

Ah, I thought maybe that you were Vrel_SZ. You berated me after busting you with a pot odds call 3-handed the other day. By the way, 86o versus roughly top 40% of hands (any ace, any king, any pair, any broadway, suited queens) is about 36% to win, so I did have the odds to call!

Sorry for busting you with 2 underdog hands, though.. :P

[stupidsucker]

It took me some time, but I found the HH. I remember the hand well, because I have been thinking about it a lot. I did the math and your call with 68o was indeed good pot odds for chip EV.

Anyays, I didnt exactly berate you.
Acording to the HH I said exactly this

3rd man: What a call
ME: ok, now that one I don't understand
ME:Thats horrible
You: Do the math
You: 68 vs top 30% of hands
Me: Ok I will
You:is better then 33%

hehe if you think this is beratement then you are missing out. I think I was incredibly calm for that string of events. I had just lost 9 in a raw. FINALLY I am ITM . I push with A7 you call J7 I lose. I push A9s you call with 68o.. I go out in 3rd. I didnt understand the call, and my first reaction was that it was horrible. I understood the J7 call because of the BB and your low stack.

By your logic here you should be calling a lot of all ins once ITM as long as the pot odds are around 33%ish. I would still thenk the FE you gain by staying out of it may be better. Not to mention that more often then not you lose a healthy stack, and now you are on the defensive.

You may be right. Normally I would fold 68o here in a heartbeat. Anyone else care to comment, or should we move this to another thread. I am truely interested.

Sorry I said it was horrible. It appeared very bad to me at first, and I can be a sore loser.

[Benholio]

Bah don't apologize man, I was really just giving you a hard time. Your response after those two hands was completely understandable. I just couldn't resist the obligatory "I told you so", since obviously I gave the hand some thought too. I was pretty confident with it at the time, but I knew you were a solid player so I had to back and do the numbers after the fact.

I do call often when I am getting better than 2:1 (was something like 2.3:1 this time), but I have never considered the implications of staying out of the hand for FE, etc. I imagine it would be pretty hard to quantify the value of different stack sizes in relation to what kind of fold equity they give you, and it would depend greatly on your opponents. Probably not something that we will ever be able to pot into a number to make these kind of things clear winners or losers.

[eastbay]

Ben,

If you are playing on pure chipEV, and wondering where your holes must be: that's it.

eastbay

[Benholio]

I understand the difference between CEV and $EV for sure. I certainly don't play on pure ChipEV.

If you think the type of call mentioned in this thread is incorrect, though, I'd love to see the analysis behind it.

[stupidsucker]

***** Hand History for Game 1170872236 *****
400/800 TOURNEYTEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 7143313) - FRI NOV 12 19:11:43 EST 2004
Table Table 11646 (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 1: Saden (2900)
Seat 2: Vrel_sz (1180)
Seat 6: kcpk911 (3920)
kcpk911 posts small blind (200)
Saden posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Vrel_sz [ As, 9c ]
Vrel_sz: im not down that much
Vrel_sz raises (1180) to 1180
Vrel_sz is all-In.
kcpk911 folds.
Saden calls (780)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 6h, Js, Kc ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Jc ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 4h ]
Creating Main Pot with $2560 with Vrel_sz
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2560 |
Board: [ 6h Js Kc Jc 4h ]
Saden balance 4280, bet 1180, collected 2560, net +1380 [ 6d 8c ] [ two pairs, jacks and sixes -- Kc,Js,Jc,6d,6h ]
Vrel_sz balance 0, lost 1180 [ As 9c ] [ a pair of jacks -- As,Kc,Js,Jc,9c ]
kcpk911 balance 3720, lost 200 (folded)

[stupidsucker]

acording to the ICM using these stats

win 34%
tie 1%
lose 65%

Your $EV is almost exactly even. In your favor by about $1

now look at the circumstances. I only have 1200 in chips, I am UTG I can push with a lot less then premium hands. As a matter of fact I would push with almost anything. Especially suited connectors like 89s.

If you throw these hands into the mix you win rate goes up slightly but the tie rate doubles, actually leaving you with less $EV then if it were premium hands.

1200 is still better then 1/3 your chips. I cant see calling based solely on chip ev here to be wise. You still have a very nice stack for FE, and you will be in great position to take back the 600 chips the next hand with no contest.

To your defense. even if I do win the hand, from now on I am going to be a lot more cautions with what I push against your BB. (cept now I would have the chips to make all those rags bad pot odds)

[Benholio]

Based on a 36% chance of winning the hand if I call, I get the following $EV numbers:

$EV if I fold: .3299

$EV if I call and win: .407
$EV if I call and lose: .2933

$EV for calling (.36)*(.407)+(.64*.2933)= .334232

Based on that, it is indeed a +CEV and a +$EV move.

The point that I was really asking about, is about how much future CEV (or $EV for that matter) you gain by having (potentially) higher FE on future moves.

[Benholio]

Since you are to my left, you will be in my path in any future steal attemps. If you are to survive this hand (by winning a showdown or by my folding), then ONE of us will have ~1700 chips, basically making ~1700 chips the "ceiling" for any of my raises against you.

This means you will have roughly the same pot odds to call my allin on the next hand no matter what I do. Maybe I would have more FE 2 hands later against the BB, but thats not enough of a guarantee of future value for me to pass on some extra value on the current play.

[ QUOTE ]
I cant see calling based solely on chip ev here to be wise

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it isn't just chip ev, its $ev also, thats what we just showed.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
$EV if I fold: .3299

$EV if I call and win: .407
$EV if I call and lose: .2933

$EV for calling (.36)*(.407)+(.64*.2933)= .334232

Based on that, it is indeed a +CEV and a +$EV move.


[/ QUOTE ]

ok with a 36% chance to win like I said you are right, acording to the ICM it IS indeed $1.30 $ev from the $300 prize pool. but everyone agrees that what the ICM cant do is add in FE acording to the blind structure. I was to your left indeed, and the third man was being rather tight. which means you actually get more chances to steal from me then I do from you.

with the $EV being so low, I personally think that the FE is worth more then $1.30.

I am willing to be wrong. I want to know the true answer, (or majority opinion) so I can start making some "pot odds calls".

Until then, I will be mucking 68o every time that the bet is over 2BBs given that average stack size.