"STOP BLUFFING STUPID!" (postflop aggression question)

[beginner]

I do not automatically bet following a pre-flop raise. Only where it makes sense. A common read your opponents will have on you after you raise pre-flop is TT+ pocket pair or something like AK. I make a decision whether to bet the flop based on the range of hands my opponents are likely to have, my position, number of people in the game, and their likely read of my cards.

For example, if I raise pre-flop with AQ and then miss the flop with a K on the board, I will check/raise from early position and bet in LP representing AK. If I was re-raised pre-flop I would probably just check-fold. I would not continue to call any later agression with more than 2 opponents.

If flop has cards like 843 and I miss it with my AK, I would only bet from CO or button and only if I'm fairly confident my opponents will fold, cause I don't expect anyone to believe that I raised UTG with an 8.

The difference between what you described and my play is that I don't count on the overcard outs. My raises are based purely on pushing my opponents off their hand. Rather than automatically betting the flop with AK on the flop of 843, I would sometimes rather check behind and wait until a J drops and bet the turn making it more believable and more expensive to call.

Also, I always take note of players that systematically bet the flop/turn with overcards and call them and then raise when any scare card hits. They're usually quick to fold to returned agression even though they were the ones trying to bully everyone off the hand.

What I'm trying to say is while most players at .50/1 at Party are bad, there are some that are not stupid who will be on to what you are doing and make it expensive for you.

Some advice I can give from my own strategy book is to significantly cut down on your agression when you lose a few hands at a particular table (but only at that table). Rather than looking at your total bankroll.... concentrate on the money you sat down with at a specific table. If playing very agressively didn't work the first 3 times, then cut down, but continue the agression at the other tables where it is profitable.

Ultimately, I think it has to do with your opponents and table selection.

By the way, your win rate is very high! Whatever you're doing keep it up - don't change your game. You were likely on an upswing and now experiencing the opposite, but good luck to you in the future!

[Dave H.]

I read all of the posts to your note so far and I didn't see where anyone pointed to page 221 of SSH where the statement is made that, generally, an overcard is worth 1.5 outs. Reading further, depending on the flop, they could be worth slightly more or less. Even if you give each of them 2 outs (VERY generously), that's still no better than a gutshot draw after the flop, and I would want a pot with at least 11 bets.

One poster indicated that he would want at least 7:1 pot odds. I can understand that from the standpoint of 6 outs (pairing either of the overcards). However, SSH only attributes about 1.5 outs to each I would guess, because you no way certain of a nut hand.

I know this doesn't address the bluff angle at all, but purely from a pot odds standpoint, overcards need a large pot to warrant a bet.

[btspider]

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I know this doesn't address the bluff angle at all, but purely from a pot odds standpoint, overcards need a large pot to warrant a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly.. the bluff angle comes in because you likely raised preflop. when you have AK and the flop comes Qxx, a bet can have many positive effects:

1. fold hands that would be correct to call if they knew you had AK
2. fold weak made hands (they may fear AQ.. ex. 22)
3. protect your hand (no one can fold an any-2 hand if you don't bet)
4. with position, buy a free card/showdown

you don't need immediate pot odds to bet. the combination of fold equity + pot equity is what can often make a bet correct. points 1,2,4 above have some "bluffing" aspect to them by overrepresenting your hand. #3 comes in because an unimproved AK may very well be the best made hand.

[Dave H.]

How does one determine Pot Equity (mathematically) and then relate it to pot size to determine whether a bet/call should be made?

For example, AKo against a rainbow 9 6 3 flop.

[Rah]

It depends on the players. When you're in a game where people will call down with bottom pair, there is no idea to bet all the way through the river with ace high. Against three loose/passive opponents I might bet in LP on the flop, but check on the turn if I'm dealing with calling stations.
It's very easy to bluff away a lot of money with hands like AQ/AK when you don't hit.

[toby]

I think you just need to be aware of your opponents. Some players will call anything on the flop, then fold later. Some people will call down with the lowest pair. I would continute to bet the flop if you think you can pick it up (note: much easier vs 1 or 2 opponents than against 3+), especially if you have a backdoor draw (straight or flush) which strengthens your hand a lot, and fire again on the turn if you think you can get it there. Don't bet the river with nothing against a calling station.

You may want to reread the "Overcards" section in SSH.

Good luck getting back on the winning track.

[btspider]

of course. that's why its wrong to auto-bet missed overcards, which is very far from what my post was meant to suggest. i only listed the positive effects to betting to demonstrate that there its much more coplicated than "i have 3 outs", i should bet/call/fold. the bluffing/positive elements to playing overcards have varying weights by # of opponents, type of board, type of opponents, recent hands, etc..

Dave H, there isn't really any way to do it without guessing at your opponents range of hands. you can use something like twodimes.net to get an idea of how good AK may be when ahead/behind.

[Dave H.]

thank you very much! It's beginning to make sense. I've read the pot equity section in SSH about 20 times now, and really never have understood it. Your post helped me get a bit closer though!

[Reqtech]

[ QUOTE ]
I play at Party Poker .50/1 and have been quite successful there. I was up 700BB through 7000 hands. However I took my first sustained beating (-140BB through 1000 hands) this weekend that has me questioning my aggression level.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know how you feel, I'm currently on a similar level of variance (12.5BB/100 over the past 3,000 hands)
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I truly caught a very bad run of luck, big pocket pairs and flopped sets cracked almost every time in combination with not catching many draws even though I had the odds to draw. I won't bother posting those hands because I'm confident I played them correctly and just lost. That's poker I can live with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. You should be losing lots of money on flopped sets if you do get beat, because you properly played aggressively.

[ QUOTE ]

stuff about bluffing -snip- more stuff about bluffing


[/ QUOTE ]

I think that you're right to put up a sign that says "STOP BLUFFING" but I think that you need to also put a subtitle that says, "but don't stop being aggressive".

The reason that people are checking around to you after you pf raise is because they are passive. It doesn't mean that they whiffed the flop. It means that because you bet before the flop, they are expecting you to bet again.

On the level that we're playing, when you bet, you are doing it for value and/or because you have a made hand. A lot of .50/1 players won't fold with any ol' dangly pair, or even with ace high....ESPECIALLY if you built up the pot with a pf raise.

Personally, I only flat out bluff if there are 2 or less seeing the flop with me, and at least one of them was a blind that didn't completely cold call 2 bets.

Good luck!

[Greg J]

Droolie:

This is one of the best posts I have seen here in a long time! Thanks for making the effort to spell out your thoughts and questions. I will probably post elsewhere in this thread as well.

I just wanted to post a hand from my PT database I think is particularly relevant to this discussion. I will leave it to others to discuss the implcations of this hand, including questioning tactics here.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Greg is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Greg 3-bets</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="CC3333">Greg bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Greg checks.

River: (6.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Greg raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB

Results:
MP1 has Js 3d (two pair, fives and threes).
MP3 has Qs Ks (two pair, kings and fives).
Greg has Kh As (two pair, kings and fives).
Outcome: Greg wins 12.75 BB.