VP$IP 21%. What do I play that you don't?

[zuluking]

At 10k hands, my BB rate was 5.85, 5k hands later it has slipped to 5.03, this at the .50/1 level. It is NOT an automatic move-up for him, although I would tend to agree that he is PROBABLY ready.

[easypete]

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How is it debatable? If you are up 540BB at a limit over 9k hands you are beating it easily.

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I've had a 10k hand run (at 1/2) at a net winrate of 0. Does that make me a bad player. No. I've had a 10k hand run (at 1/2) at a net winrate of 7.5BB/100. Does that make me a good player. No. Runs happen. It just so happens that during my break even run, I had 3 bad downswings, and during the good 10k run I had about 5 good upswings. Variance happens.

I know that there have been a couple players (2+2ers) I've been in contact with in the Atlanta area that have had extraordinary runs of good fortune only to build a false sense of confidence and hit their first downswing at 2/4 or 3/6 and almost quit playing because of it (a QTs hand comes to mind). These downswings are much more dramatic due to the negative reinforcements when bad play is rewarded with big pots during the good swings.

10k hands is not a lot. Yes, there's a good chance that a great winrate (9BB/100) is a sign that he's ready to move up, but when I see a winrate like this I just think it's the cards.

[helpmeout]

Slipping to 5.03 is real tragic I guess you should play another 10k hands incase it drops to 4.5

Maybe he should wait until he has 100k hands and 5000BB just to make sure.

If you have a good winrate move up, if you cant adapt to the new environment then move back down.

[helpmeout]

Its 6bb/100 at 25c/50c its far from great.

If I had a run of breaking even over 10k hands I wouldnt be using variance as an excuse I'd be looking at my game. If I run bad over 500 hands I look at my game. (I dont play more than 2tables so I expect my winrate to be good)

Variance is too often used as an excuse on these boards.

If you don't know whether you are playing well or not you need to do more study and pay attention more instead of playing 8 tables at once.

[easypete]

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Its 6bb/100 at 25c/50c its far from great.

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Huh?

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If I had a run of breaking even over 10k hands I wouldnt be using variance as an excuse I'd be looking at my game.

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Uhh... I did analyze my play... I reviewed 3 different sections in that 10k hand run (each over 1k hands). I played fine. I shared a bunch of the losing hands with other 2+2ers in my area. I posted some of the questionable hands. I made mistakes, but playing better would not have significantly changed the outcome.

So, you are to have the 2+2 authors (and other authors) re-write their books to say that bad runs can only last 100 hands and not 10k. There have been a few authors that say that you can run a few months of break or losing poker. Ahh... what do they know...

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If you don't know whether you are playing well or not you need to do more study and pay attention more instead of playing 8 tables at once.

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Yeah... if I count the number of tables on my monitor that I'm playing it would be..... 2. More than 25% of the time, it's only 1.

And as for the studying, you have no idea how much I have dedicated to learning this game... I'm an Engineer by trade. I never studied as much in college as I've studied to learn this game in the past 18 months, and I still dedicate at least 2 hours a day to re-reading books because I still have so much to learn. But at least I recognize that about my game. So yeah... that's a good one.

Let me also quote something that you wrote in the SS forum this morning:

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4500 is a small sample size what are your results in lower limits? Are your $2/$4 results similar?

A BB of 4+ doesnt prove anything unless you have played a lot of hands. A significant downswing like 100-150BB would put a big dent in that so it really doesnt mean that much.


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4.5k.... 10k.... where do you draw the line? I don't understand. You're saying that 5k hands isn't nearly enough... but 10k hands more than proves the point. And you don't feel that it's possible to have more than one significant downswing in 10k hands? That's good.

BTW... variance is real, and your choice of not accepting this either means one of two things, you're sick of hearing about it, or you've never experienced it.

My winrate at 2/4 (over 18k hands) was 5.4 BB/100. And while I can't pick out a section that I was break-even for 10k hands, I can pick out a section that my winrate over 10k hands was less that 1BB/100. I can also pick out a 3k hand run that my winrate was over 12BB/100. What does this tell me? Not a thing.

[Marquis]

I don't know where you're playing, but I dont think lowering your vpip to under 20% at .25/.50 games will increase your winrate; it will lower it. On Party .5/1, the smiley face icon, as a group, wins much more than the moneybag does, at least in my database.

[Cardzy]

Ok, without reading all 25 replies or however is already posted I will reply. The reason you are over 20% may not have to do with WHAT cards you play, but rather WHERE (as in what position) you are willing to play certain hands from.

Example would be something like K9s. I toss it away in early position every time, I will most likely toss it away in mid position 80% of the time. Maybe you don't.

If you want to tighten up, keep an eye on what your playing in certain positions. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Marquis]

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Example would be something like K9s. I toss it away in early position every time, I will most likely toss it away in mid position 80% of the time. Maybe you don't.

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And you shouldn't, IMO.

[nyc999]

I think a 21% VPIP is nothing to worry about in low limits. You have a good BB/100 right now, and maybe you've had a good run of cards. I had a 20.5% VPIP for awhile, and had a great win rate. Then the cards went cold, my BB/100 went down, and now I'm around a 19.5% VPIP.

I also think its important to evaluate the cards you play by each position. Sometimes cards that are played in MP3 shouldn't be played in MP1, etc.

However, if you continue to stay at that win rate, I wouldn't worry at all. Keep in mind that as you move up, your VPIP will probably decrease a little bit.

[MarkL444]

none of us are saying that he shouldnt. im sure i would if i was him. its just that your original statement of:

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BTW if you are earning 6bb/100 over 9k hands then it is time to move up.


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is crazy.