Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
In the WPT Finals at Bellago. OK I don't know the dates but it's the one where the last three are Philips, Hansen and Tomko. Hansen has 2.3M, Philips 2.8M and Tomko has 800k.

I ragged on Philips about this situation last year. I believe that both Hansen and Philips made big mistakes on this hand. I know I'm right about that but I wonder which made the bigger mistake. For those of you that didn't see the hand:

blinds were T25-50K.

sb: Phillips T2.8M
bb: Tomko T800k
button: Hansen T2.3M

Hansen: TT, Raise T250K
Phillips: All-in T2.8M
Tomko: fold
Hansen: Call.

The only play that I think was correct was Tomko's fold. I also believe that Hansen's call was a bigger mistake than Phillips move in. Anyone agree? Why?

Vince [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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Paul and Gus both played correctly.

Gus raised 3 handed with TT like anyone would.

Paul put him on an underpair or a typical Gus BS hand, and raised all in. This is a standard play three-handed. Paul is only behind AK, AA, KK and QQ. Gives Paul 2 chances to win - Gus folds, or Paul wins a coin flip.

If Paul just calls, he misses 2 flops out of 3 and will be forced to fold to a Gus bet, and Gus is first to act. If Paul reraises 750K, Gus would either go all in or call, and Paul has the flop problem again.

Gus correctly put Paul on overcards and not an overpair, and was getting 6-5 pot odds in a hand in which he was a 11-9 favorite.

Where is the mistake?

[fnurt]

I think you oversimplify when you say Gus put Paul on overcards. If Paul has overcards, the call is EV neutral in terms of prize money, maybe a little bit negative.

Think of it this way. How do you suppose Dewey felt when he saw all the money go in? Do you think he was indifferent? I'm sure he was thrilled, knowing that either he would move up to 2nd place, or that one player would be reduced to an even shorter stack than Dewey had. It's a zero sum game, so if Dewey is happy, then someone must be correspondingly unhappy. Someone gave up EV somewhere along the line.

Putting that aside, the reason why Gus has to make this call is because there is a significant chance he is a 70-30 favorite in the hand, for the reasons other posters have explained. While he might be behind a big pair, he might also be ahead of a smaller pair, so those considerations cancel out.

If Paul's cards are face up it is probably slightly right for Gus to fold, in terms of prize money, but the swing is not huge.

[Easy E]

[ QUOTE ]

I ragged on Philips about this situation last year. I believe that both Hansen and Philips made big mistakes on this hand. I know I'm right about that but I wonder which made the bigger mistake. For those of you that didn't see the hand:

blinds were T25-50K.

sb: Phillips T2.8M
bb: Tomko T800k
button: Hansen T2.3M

Hansen: TT, Raise T250K
Phillips: All-in T2.8M
Tomko: fold
Hansen: Call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying that Paul priced Dewey into calling, with a much larger range of hands than normal? Or were you looking for Paul to TRY to price Dewey in, by limping, and get a better chance of knocking him out between Paul and Gus?

Or was it the AQ specifically that you didn't like, since if it gets called it's likely a loser?

Are you saying Gus shouldn't have risked his tournament life here, and the resulting prize jump, on TT against the overbet?

So many questions about your thoughts, Vince

[cornell2005]

a preflop all in play? yawn

[Vince Lepore]

nm

[Vince Lepore]

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you probably play 5 - 10 limit at most.

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So what? If you think tournament poker is poker you are wrong? BTW would you say that these plays were good in a live game?

Vince

[knucklehead]

Paul, care to comment further here?

If you have overcards, you're like 65% to pair by the river, correct? Did you assume a fold from Tomke? Did you put Gus on rags or a hand? I'm assuming you felt you're reads on Gus were very good, continually going over the top gave you some great info! Did you put him on a percentage of holdings based on percentage of folds?

Tomke (spelling?) looked to me like he was playing for second, trying to avoid any clashes, they showed one hand he folded AKs...

[Vince Lepore]

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Are you saying that Paul priced Dewey into calling, with a much larger range of hands than normal?

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No

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Are you saying that Paul priced Dewey into calling, with a much larger range of hands than normal? Or were you looking for Paul to TRY to price Dewey in, by limping, and get a better chance of knocking him out between Paul and Gus?

[/ QUOTE ]

No

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Or was it the AQ specifically that you didn't like, since if it gets called it's likely a loser

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Yes

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Are you saying Gus shouldn't have risked his tournament life here, and the resulting prize jump, on TT against the overbet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

Vince

[Vince Lepore]

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the effect is to prove you should keep your psychiatrist on speed-dial.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now see Paul, I say your play was a mistake and you divert my ontention to one of personal attacks. I guess you'll never change. Poor baby.

Vince

[Vince Lepore]

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Paul has been coming over the top of Gus regularly

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So, what?

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It should also be mentioned that neither of these players is likely to be playing the move up the ladder game.

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So what?

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draw a line in the sand

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Is that what you call Gus's play? He makes weak calls all the time and this was a prime example of that.

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also think Gus made a big league call there

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Have you ever heard the term bush leaugue? Gus Hansen has been touted as a great tournament player. Even Sklansky has been up here touting his abilities. Why would a great tournament player risk his very good chance of winning the tournament on at best a toss up so early in the competition. Why wouldn't he let his great play find a better situation to risk all of his chips or continue to apply pressure to the small stack as e had effectively been doing? Since when is it good tournament stratey to go up against another big stack? Why aren't both Phillips and Hansen guilty of playing against the big stack?


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With as much pressure as hes been putting on gus, and guss' penchant for not likeing to get pushed around he may even get called by a weaker hand.

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So, what?

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i think the way it was played was a resonable choice for two players focused on winning the tournament.


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Wrong! It was a reasonable choice for two players willing o "gamble", not focused on winning through skill.

Vince