Basic 15/30 Party Hand, but something feels wrong about it

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Yet you still 9% of players on party poker raises 89s/K9s preflop in this situation, cap the flop, check the turn and feel the need to bluff the river?

These are the only two hands you can hope for, it's not really a matter of 'range of hands' it's a matter of how many player will play a hand this way. So the question is, 'will 9% of the unknowns play 89s or K9s this way?' You honestly believe the answer is yes?

[ QUOTE ]
'It's not the only two combos. KQ/AQ/AK might all play it this way. '

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to remind you, that line is a moot point, you beat one, lose to one and tie with one.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're making it much more complicated than it is.

HE CHECKED BEHIND ON THE TURN.

YOU HAVE ACE-HIGH, GOOD KICKER.

THE POT IS LARGE.

Bet-fold or check-call.

BTW, I don't think it's a coincidence that you and ZJ both have no limit backgrounds.

[1800GAMBLER]

Laff. When all else fails just shout general rules.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
'It's not the only two combos. KQ/AQ/AK might all play it this way. '

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to remind you, that line is a moot point, you beat one, lose to one and tie with one.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is it a moot point? Suppose that you knew that he had exactly one of these three hands, and would bet with each of them on river, Would you be indifferent between calling and folding? Obviously not with the pot laying you 10:1. But in fact, the KQ hand is going to be a lot more interested in betting, because it looks like Justin could very easily be on Ax suited.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Laff. When all else fails just shout general rules.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jay, I'm going to go get a burrito. When I come back I expect to see an exhaustive list of Button hands from you with their respective probabilities of being played this way up through the turn check.

[1800GAMBLER]

At the turn check, in order:

AK AQ - AT TJ JJ (<-- more likely than 89s K9s lol) QQ KK AA (<---- def. seen that happen more than K9s raises preflop) TT 99 88 - 90% - 10% rest.

At the river bet:

QK 89s K9s (how are we even considering K9s again?) < 5%.

The best counter arguement to my logic is if i consider AK AQ to be a large percentage of the player's hand i must also contain QK in that range, so QK covers ~1/3 of whatever percentage you give to those hands. Thus if QK covers say 30% of the hands (i.e. AK QK AQ take up 90% of his hands here - doubful) it doesn't need to wake up much on the river and bluff.

Another very good counter arguement is KQ is MORE likely than AK AQ here. While AK AQ almost always get raised preflop and KQ doesn't, given the flop action KQ is more likely. However going for [censored] like 89s and K9s is a crazy counter arguement.

Then stupid [censored] like 'you are both NL players!' is even worse.

done with this.

[AlwaysWrong]

I'm sure everyone here frequently puts their opponents on very specific hands a good deal of the time. It seems to me that the way this hand played out would allow an observer that could see neither hand to guess fairly accurately what each player was holding.

On the flop, the button player either has a good made hand, or is on a draw. It's possible that he has a marginal made hand and wants a cheap showdown or a marginal made hand with a draw, but I think the first two options are far, far more likely.

If he had a good made hand, obviously he bets the turn. I think even if he has a mediocre made hand, the board has so many draws that he'd normally want to bet.

If he has a drawing hand, he checks. When Justin checks again on the river, he pretty much knows that Justin was on a draw. He also knows that he has king-high, where Justin could easily be on the a-high flush draw. If he's not very good, I think he'll check anyways, but if he's good, he'll probably know that bluffing here is profitable.

Regardless of the range of hands he COULD have, it looks like the hand he DOES have could easily be beaten by ace-high, or BE ace high.

I think this is a good bet-fold situation, as you might get AK to fold.

I guess to put it another way, there aren't many hands that Justin beats, but there aren't many hands you cap that flop with and then let it check through either. This isn't a normal situation, it's a special situation.

[1800GAMBLER]

'as you might get AK to fold.'

O_O

[AlwaysWrong]

why not?

[JasonP530]

You can either reraise or not preflop. It depends on how you have been playing and your mood. You are out of position, so that is something to be considered. Unless the raiser is very loose, he must have something that he is willing to call a bet on the flop and turn with, so your bet doesnt rate to win the pot right there. You should only bet if the players behind may fold because the preflop raiser is yet to act. I think the capper is very likely to check the river behind you, so I would check the river. I just cant see him value betting a hand like 88, because I cant imagine him capping with that type of hand. If he can do that with AT also, i guess you have to pay him on the end.

[Nate tha' Great]

Nice post. You made my argument much more eloquently than I was able to.

[ QUOTE ]
I guess to put it another way, there aren't many hands that Justin beats, but there aren't many hands you cap that flop with and then let it check through either. This isn't a normal situation, it's a special situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo. That's why I think Jay is being a bit ridiculous when he rules out hands like the K9s, or small heart draws that I've mentioned. Up until the point when Justin checks it to his opponent on the turn, you would not place a very high weight on those hands. However, the turn check-behind is highly unexpected and ought to radically alter your opinion of your opponent's hand range.

The fact is, though, that we don't need those hands to make the check-fold line grotesquely wrong. If you had to place your opponent on one hand, and one hand only, it would be KQ, and KQ exactly. And as you mention, KQ might well be inclined to take a shot on the river, getting some pretty nice odds and helped somewhat by being able to represent the backdoor flush.