If you knew if would be capped

[Vex]

[ QUOTE ]
Hands were close to random, I saw everything from 55 to 94s to Arag o to K rag o...I'd asy slightly better than random...

[/ QUOTE ]

Real hand:

9-handed 3/6 Holdem. I'm in the cutoff with AA. It's 3-bet to me, I raise, BB caps at 5 bets. We go to the flop 5-way and there is one chip shy of 4 extra small bets in the pot AFTER the three-chip rake and one-chip jackpot drop go down the hole. Those extra bets are from people who called and then passed after the betting went crazy. So, we have 28.67 (let's call it 29) small bets in the pot.

The flop is rainbow rags. If this were Omaha, we'd assume somebody had a made low. But this is holdem and I've got the mother of all overpairs. The betting goes nuts again and we cap it once again on the flop, but only 4 people see the turn. The big blind chickened out. 49 small bets in the middle.

The turn is a J -- no help for whoever has the low hand. Early position checks. Middle position bets. Late position calls. I raise. Early position folds. Middle and late call. The pot is now 30.5 big bets.

The river is another low card. Middle position checks. Late position bets. I can now squarely put him on 6-4 for a rivered gutshot. I have to make a crying call. So does Early Position.

He rolls over Kings. I roll over my aces. The other guy takes it down with the aforementioned 6-4.

They were sooooooooted, of course. In diamonds.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
At this threshold, play A9o, A2s, KTo, K6s, QTo, Q8s, JTo, J8s, T8s, 98s

[/ QUOTE ]

I see only 1 hand in this whole group that i'd even think of playing knowing it will be capped preflop given the players make-up provided.

b

[Yeknom58]

Umm, I'd probably play any pair and AK.

[Yeknom58]

What hand would you think about playing in this group. I don't think I would play any of theses hands.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
Those were my thoughts, esp for suited connecters. In fact, I played 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s from the button and hit 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s plus a 5 on flop against 4. Stuck around for 11 "good outs" but didn't hit and easy fold on river...

Good gamble, or stupid play??? My guess is ~ b/e EV...

K

[/ QUOTE ]

Playing low suited connectors in this game is death. You are paying a ton of money up front and realistically you're hoping the flop gives you a draw (not a made hand). And, in this passive game you can't expect much action when you hit, thus lowering your implied odds. (This is also one of the reasons I wouldn't play lower pairs)

[jayrutz2]

Any bead on statistically, what are the odds of making a hand of 2 pr or better from a suited connector? And if you are getting 5:1, is that enough to call?

Ken

[pzhon]

Yes, I thought people would find it counterintuitive. The commonly repeated advice to tighten up in a loose game is very wrong. These hands, and any better, are significantly better than random hands. They win a disproportionate share of a 6-way pot.

Here is an experiment: Take one of those borderline hands. Shuffle the other 50 cards. Deal out 9 hands. Take the first 3, and the best two of the remaining 6. These are your opponents. How well does the selected hand do?

[Yeknom58]

Um what in the world are you talking about.

First of all just go to www.twodimes.net and use their simulator.

Your have the right idea but you're applying the concepts all wrong. Okay fine their playing crap, but I wouldn't assume the hands are totally random, but that's more of a side point.

In a LOOSE PASSIVE game you should loosen up considerably and you can play lots of poop hands. But in a LOOSE AGRESSIVE game you need to tighten up considerably. Even though you stated it was loose passive post flop the fact that it's capped preflop still makes most of the hands you listed unplayable and unprofitable. In addition most people muddle up the fact that the hand simulators assume you never fold post flop, which is just not true for limit holdem.

Later,

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I thought people would find it counterintuitive

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, i find the hands you chose, other than the pkt pairs, highly unprofitable in the situation described.

Good luck.

b

[bernie]

I believe the one hand i'd have considered was Axs. Even then, you have to be very careful with it.

The other hands I highlighted? No way am i playing those for a capped pot, much less just a raised pot out of the blinds. It's session roll suicide, imo. Especially the offsuit hands. With those, you may as well not buy in, but head str8 to the bathroom flush your bills down.

b