Party Poker badbeat jackpot odds

[ILL34GL3]

Well it seems I've stumped our expert panel with my first ever post. I was looking for an answer like "your chances of hitting the pp jp are 1fill in the blank)". Instead I get a bunch of worthless mumbo jumbo. Oh well, maybe someone with a real answer will stumble upon this post.

[Cerril]

Take a look at a sample of a few tens or hundreds of thousands of hands, and see how often you had a qualifying hand. That'll give you an idea how often they come along for the individual... now try to estimate how often someone else at the table will have also had a qualifying hand.

I'm thinking that with the small amount of the jackpot (it's never seven digits), you'll never be doing anything but handing your money away. The value of the added rake is effecively zero.

Of course there may be more to it than that. As I've said before, it's a real shame this forum doesn't do stickies. There are so many things that would keep this stupid topic from coming up the moment it has dropped to the second page.

Maybe we should just start notifying the mod any time anything that's been asked a dozen times already shows up again.

[Paul2432]

[ QUOTE ]
Well it seems I've stumped our expert panel with my first ever post. I was looking for an answer like "your chances of hitting the pp jp are 1fill in the blank)". Instead I get a bunch of worthless mumbo jumbo. Oh well, maybe someone with a real answer will stumble upon this post.

[/ QUOTE ]

You got a real answer. It is impossible to calculate directly because it depends on how people play. If you assume all 10 players go to show down every hand, it is possible to calculate, but that is not a trivial matter.

It would be much simpler, as another poster has suggested, to simply track the jackpot and calculate the average number of hands between jackpots. Alternatively, a program like Turbo Texas Hold'Em could be used to run a simulation and come up with an estimate (not sure if TTH has this capability).

My informal observations seem to indicate the JP hits around every 150,000-200,000 hands. That would be the frequency for anyone at your table hitting. An individual player would hit around once every 1,500,000 to 2,000,000 hands if my observations are accurate.

Paul

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
Uuuuuuhhh yyyyeeeah I know but thats where the fishies are schoolin'. Anyone have a legit answer? I just wanna know what I'm tossin' 50 cents at from every pot besides the privilege to sit at the same table with these ultraloose players.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you 4 table the BBJP only takes $120/hr off the tables.
*Hint* - that's $12/hr out of your pocket.

[Moozh]

Here's a crude answer.

Over my small sample size, I'd estimate I hit a qualifying hand about once every 5000 tries (but that may be generous as party requires both hole cards to play).

For each of those chances, one of the opponents has to hit a qualifying hand as well,a 1/5000 shot. Since there are 9 of them, we'll put it at about a 9/5000. Multiply them together and you get 9 out of 25,000,000.

That works out to be something on the order of 1 in 2.8 million.

If you put the chances of having a qualifying hand at 1/10,000, then the bad beat probability becomes worse than 1 in 10 million.

(And yes, I know this method isn't exact, it's just an apporoximation).

[BradleyT]

Why not track how much $$$ is in it when it goes out and subtract their outrageous fees from it and you can get an average number of hands it takes to get hit.

I'd guess it's somewhere around 700,000.

[waffle]

I wrote a computer simulation just to get a ballpark idea.

Here are the assumptions.

Each game has 10 players.
Each player will play these-cards pre-flop: Any two cards 10 or above (like AK or QTs), any pocket pair, any suited ace, any suited connector except for 23s and 34s. Also, J9s.
A "bad beat" is any hand 88882 or better losing to another hand, where both hands use both hold cards in their final hands.
Once in preflop, NO ONE FOLDS BEFORE THE SHOWDOWN. This is extremely optimistic, but I didn't have time to simulate play on the flop, turn, river etc. I just whipped it up really quickly.

After running 3,100,000 simulated games, there have been 15 bad beats. I need a lot more trials to get this to be more accurate given the assumptions, but my computer is slow =P.
This places the odds at 1 in 206,000 assuming the above starting hand requirements and that once involved, no one folds before the showdown.

I think if we assumed that each hand has a 50% chance of going to showdown, then the bad beats would be about 4x less likely to happen.

[waffle]

[ QUOTE ]
Well it seems I've stumped our expert panel with my first ever post. I was looking for an answer like "your chances of hitting the pp jp are 1fill in the blank)". Instead I get a bunch of worthless mumbo jumbo. Oh well, maybe someone with a real answer will stumble upon this post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, why berate the repliers for not being able to calculate an exact answer? You can't do it either - you act as if you deserve the answer to just be plopped into your lap, and you're not even a significant contributor to the 2+2 community.

[elwoodblues]

[ QUOTE ]
I just wanna know what I'm tossin' 50 cents at from every pot

[/ QUOTE ]

It's only 50 cents for every pot you win. If it's 10 handed you're only tossing $.05 per hand (and that assumes you play as many hands as everyone else, which you shouldn't) to play at an ultra loose table and usually ultra passive table. It is WELL worth it. Every day I play I get at least one chat conversation started about how I shouldn't raise pre-flop because, after all, "it kinda defeats the purpose" of a bad beat table followed by several people at the table agreeing. I'll pony up the money to sit at that table any day of the week.

[House-Lion]

Easiest way to find out is to calcualte the average jackpot that are hit and then count how many hands that are played between those jp.

Jackpot is frequently above $150,000, meaning well over 250k hands raked for 50 cent each has been played. 20% of the jackpot amount is used as a seed for the next jackpot.

So for ease we say +250k raked hands, and not all hands are raked but maybe 2/3 so we are around 330k hands between at least.

My rough ball-park-measure of the probability of a jack-pot hitting with the conditions of quad-8s beaten with two other hole-cards would be between 1/330,000 to 1/400,000.

Note that a bad-beat could happen with T-8 vs 9-9 on a board with 8-8-9-9-8
Winning and loosing hands would be 99998 and 8888T

(both hole-cards playing in loosing table-trips-8-hand since kicker card is higher than board.)


I also think Party takes way to much rake from the bad-beats 10%(!), they should settle with just some fixed fee or very small percentage.