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#1
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Better to just ask here, email is for personal people. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Besides, the more intelligent conversation we have, the more other people can benefit from it.. If you have questions, maybe someone else does too, and maybe someone else will find unique viewpoints to the scenarios and contribute. |
#2
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I was just going to ask you what your style of play is for the upper levels since you say you do pretty well. For instance are you pushing all in frequently, etc.
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#3
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Posted for reference:
C:\java>java ParlayTest * Parlay Strategy 1 * Strategy submitted by ChrisD Play a typical game. Let's say it was a $33. If you are above the watermark before the game started, and you win 1st place (+$117), play the largest level you can with those winnings without a negative sum for the two events - in this case, a $109 would be acceptable. This is termed the "parlay" game. In any parlay game, should I win *1st* place, I continue the parlay to the next highest level that I could afford. If I win 2nd or 3rd, the parlay is over and I continue with SNGs at the "typical" level. Running ten million iterations of parlay.............Iterations complete! Successes: 2294056 (22.94056%), average BR: $2535 Failures: 4811192 (48.11192%), average BR: $1254 Losses: 2894752 (28.947521%), average BR: $679 Furthermore, you ROR'd your bankroll 0 times, around 0.0% of the time. Your EV for this strategy is: <font color="red">$1381.42</font> * Baseline Strategy '30' * Strategy submitted by ChrisD This strategy is the simple approach - take your bankroll and divide by 30 - the next lowest buyin is your next game. For example, if you have $661, you play a $22. If you have $659, you play a $11. Running ten million iterations of baseline.............Iterations complete! Average finishing BR: $1038 Furthermore, you ROR'd your bankroll 0 times, around 0.0% of the time. Your EV for this strategy is: <font color="red">$1038.00</font> |
#4
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Looks like you made an error in a calculation. In the success example you posted above, you gave yourself +$1000 for a win in the $55 tournament. Unless they changed the payouts on the $55's and didn't tell me, a win is usually worth $250.
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#5
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[ QUOTE ]
Looks like you made an error in a calculation. In the success example you posted above, you gave yourself +$1000 for a win in the $55 tournament. Unless they changed the payouts on the $55's and didn't tell me, a win is usually worth $250. [/ QUOTE ] Oof! Good catch.. this changes the numbers a bit.. I'll edit the posts. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] |
#6
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I'm crushed...
* Parlay Strategy 1 * Running ten million iterations of parlay.............Iterations complete! Successes: 563809 (5.63809%), average BR: $2441 Failures: 6144953 (61.449528%), average BR: $1127 Losses: 3291238 (32.91238%), average BR: $683 Furthermore, you ROR'd your bankroll 0 times, around 0.0% of the time. Your EV for this strategy is: <font color="red"> $1054.95 </font> -- You were correct, I had a bug in the software. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] The EV now is *much* closer to the baseline EV, but interestingly, it's still higher (by only a few bucks). However, of note is the fact that losses now constitute a 1/3 chance and the parlay is successful only 5% of the time. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] Now the question is, can we find a better parlay strategy? I'm so embarassed.. |
#7
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C:\java>java ParlayTest
* Parlay Strategy 1 * Strategy submitted by ChrisD Play a typical game. Let's say it was a $33. If you are above the watermark before the game started, and you win 1st place (+$117), play the largest level you can with those winnings without a negative sum for the two events - in this case, a $109 would be acceptable. This is termed the "parlay" game. In any parlay game, should I win *1st* place, I continue the parlay to the next highest level that I could afford. If I win 2nd or 3rd, the parlay is over and I continue with SNGs at the "typical" level. Running ten million iterations of parlay.............Iterations complete! Successes: 564816 (5.64816%), average BR: $2441 Failures: 6142857 (61.42857%), average BR: $1127 Losses: 3292327 (32.92327%), average BR: $683 Furthermore, you ROR'd your bankroll 0 times, around 0.0% of the time. Your EV for this strategy is: <font color="red">1055.03</font> * Baseline Strategy '30' * Strategy submitted by ChrisD This strategy is the simple approach - take your bankroll and divide by 30 - the next lowest buyin is your next game. For example, if you have $661, you play a $22. If you have $659, you play a $11. Running ten million iterations of baseline.............Iterations complete! Average finishing BR: $1037 Furthermore, you ROR'd your bankroll 0 times, around 0.0% of the time. Your EV for this strategy is: <font color="red">1037.0 </font> * Baseline Strategy '10' * Strategy submitted by ChrisD This strategy is the simple approach - take your bankroll and divide by 10 - the next lowest buyin is your next game. For example, if you have $221, you play a $22. If you have $219, you play a $11. This is included here for illustration purposes, as this method is acknowledged to be fairly risky. Running ten million iterations of baseline.............Iterations complete! Average finishing BR: $1515 Furthermore, you ROR'd your bankroll <font color="red">69</font> times, around 6.8999996E-4% of the time. Your EV for this strategy is: <font color="red"> 1515.0 </font> |
#8
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My initial reactions to this are somewhat contradictory
On the one hand, I like it. I think players should allow for jumps in stakes before they really have a proper roll. I think this helps make permanent transitions easier and I think it keep us sharp becasue we tend to really think a lot when playing for high stakes and I think it also gives us better perspective on the lower stakes. On the other hand. I don't like it. In theory, I would if you could guarantee a positive ROI at all levels, BUT for many (most?) this will not be true. What this means is that your overall ROI will be less than if you concentrate primarily on a level where you have a positive expectation. If your ROI is slightly negative at $109 or $215 (for example), then this strategy is tantamount to just going to a Baccarat table and placing a $109 or $215 bet now and then. Regards Brad S |
#9
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If your ROI is negative at any level then you are a losing player and no amount of parlaying will post a +EV bet over time.
However, it is possible to tweak a strategy such that you generally play within your level, but trim off a first place win every once in a while to play in that $100 or $200 for the small chance that you cash, in which case your bankroll increases relatively dramatically. Furthermore, the data that I've run this with are *my* data so this is not to say that this will be an accurate guess for everyone. In addition, a $1500 goal with $800 is ... fairly difficult. Basically you're looking to triple your money in a short amount of time, and no strategy will be able to accomplish this without *some* increase in variance and the corresponding decrease in ROI. I'm in the process of writing a program that I think the S&G crowd will enjoy - I'll take the statistics of anyone who wishes them (perhaps I can even release the program to 2+2), as well as several "common" strategies and post the EV, ROI and RoR numbers for each over 5 sngs, 10 sngs, 20, 50, 100, 1000, and 10000. 10,000 S&Gs can reasonably be expected to be a number that not many players will achieve, even in a couple years or more of playing. If you do, though, more power to you! |
#10
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Okay, I get it. But my real question is, How in the hell do you play 50 sngs in a day? Those thing take me an hour on average. Do those numbers for me. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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