I love it when a plan comes together - Page 2

I Play 2 Ski · #11 10-17-2004, 02:57 PM

Went back to SSH and reread the "When Calling Cannot Be Right" section. This is what was going through my head, thinking a call here is bad because I am allowing the draws in cheap here.

Right there in foot note 61 states that there is no need to protect my small flush draw with no overcards if the pot is small. Which goes back to the posts regarding my pot equity.

Calling would have been the better play, so I learned that.

Heads up on the turn with 12 outs I come out betting still because I believe the MP3 is going to get away from his hand.

Thanks Again

Entity · #12 10-17-2004, 03:04 PM

Most people bet out on this flop rather than check/calling, right? That's my standard line here -- should I be rethinking this line?

Rob

MoDOH · #13 10-17-2004, 03:13 PM

Betting out on this flop is my standard line on a hand like this

Monty Cantsin · #14 10-17-2004, 05:07 PM

No, it's me that's confused.

Pot equity is the product of your chances of winning the pot times the size of the pot, expressed in dollars or big bets. I thought it was simply your share of the pot based on your chances of winning, expressed as a percentage. So you're correct that calling increases your pot equity despite slightly lowering your chances to win. My bad.

/mc

I Play 2 Ski · #15 10-17-2004, 05:20 PM

call or 3 bet if its gets raised?

SparkyDog · #16 10-17-2004, 05:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I checked the flop to see what would develop, the one bet from MP3 could mean anything. The showed no strength preflop and may as well been betting to see where he was at. Everybody folded behind him.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's generally better to just bet out, unless you think you can trap the field for two, and there was nothing to indicate this. Also, you're going to call any bets, so you may as well bet yourself.

[ QUOTE ]
Ok so now I am not going to fold my 4 flush for 1 bet. If I call here, I possibly let other draws in. What I am concered about is hitting the flush on the turn and allowing somebody a redraw to a higher flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is not yet big enough to worry about things that will happen less than 5% of the time.

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I felt If I raised here, I can get it heads up and if someone calls 2 at least I know where I stand.

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You don't want it heads-up really. Your pair outs are no good here. And, I can tell you right now where you stand; you're drawing.

[ QUOTE ]
The turn gives me more outs. If I check, I give away my hand and probably give a free card away to his draw. Secondly I am the only one who has showed any strength and now its heads up. I think there is a decent chance if I bet I could win it right there. If he calls or raises then I know hes ahead, but I still have 9 outs to a flush that will be good and 3 outs to my gutshot. So I bet, he folded I win.

[/ QUOTE ]

What?! You can't possibly be concerned with giving free cards when you have six-high. You keep talking about "finding where you stand" but it's near certain that you're drawing. I don't have any comments about the turn semi-bluff, other than I'd like it more if the pot were larger. I think you'll get called down and lose more often than not with this line in the long run though.

I Play 2 Ski · #17 10-17-2004, 05:36 PM

great response. Thanks. I felt good about the play at the time, but obviously I need to bet out on the flop.

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The pot is not yet big enough to worry about things that will happen less than 5% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for this comment, sometimes I concern myself with things that should concern me. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

sublime · #18 10-17-2004, 05:46 PM

Most people bet out on this flop rather than check/calling, right? That's my standard line here -- should I be rethinking this line?

Most people do, which doesnt make it correct.

This flop has a VERY good chance of being bet behind you, or even more important, raised. The times somebody to your immediate left raises this and shuts out the rest of the filed SUCKS. Check, see where the bet comes from, and adjuct accordingly.

SparkyDog · #19 10-17-2004, 05:46 PM

Remember there's 4 spades already out, meaning that someone has to have one of nine left, and the board has to come runner-runner spades, and that they also have to stick around to catch the backdoor one card flush.

Lots of things have to go wrong before you lose to a higher flush.

Entity · #20 10-17-2004, 05:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Most people bet out on this flop rather than check/calling, right? That's my standard line here -- should I be rethinking this line?

Most people do, which doesnt make it correct.

This flop has a VERY good chance of being bet behind you, or even more important, raised. The times somebody to your immediate left raises this and shuts out the rest of the filed SUCKS. Check, see where the bet comes from, and adjuct accordingly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without a PFR, doesn't this change things a bit, though? everyone has shown weakness by limping in, unless someone failed a LRR attempt -- which is unlikely. Isn't betting and having someone raise, unfortunately thinning the field, still better than checking and having it checked through?

5/10 is definitely a different game than 1/2, but in what way, I don't know. I'm not being raised when I bet this flop very often at 1/2, especially by someone in EP who doesn't know what the rest of the field is going to do.

Comments?

Rob