need help with pot odds

[MattB]

I'm with you, Snap! In addition to to all the helpful replies you have recieved, there is more good news. Matthew Hilger is coming out
with a book that is going to cover odds. I expect the book to start in a very easy fashion, and it will progress to a near expert level.
Last I heard, Hilger's book should be available around January of 2005.

Matt B.

[skibum]

All I can say is you better get a road map 'cause you're getting sent down the wrong road home left and right.

[Dominic]

Hold...I had a brain fart that day and decided to forget a step!

You're absolutely right about your calculations!

Sorry for the confusion, but at least I wrote my miscalculations with such confidence that I had you questioning yours! If I'm going to go down, I'll go down in flames!

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[Dominic]

you're right, I'm wrong! I'm a doofus.

But I still would never draw to a staight when a three flush is on the board, Jeff.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Dominic]

I like this approach, Cris...thanks!

[holdemfan]

Thank you for your response and I can relate to the brain fart. I wasn't as much questioning my calculations because I did verify it before posting. I just wanted to politely say that you missed a couple steps in your calculation. My respect to you in your honesty.

[cybertilt]

Louie,
I have a small problem with your logic regarding the outs. for the flush part I think it should be 4 to 1. what you are not considering is if, with 2 cards to come, I don't hit the turn, I now have to post another bet to see the river. If you want to count both cards, you need to count both bets. I don't see many pots that aren't giving you 4 to 1, but if your going to raise, then you really need to consider the true odds.

My next real problem is I have read the previous posts and not a one has adjusted the outs for their chance to win. A ten high flush is in no way the nuts. I just don't think I would be raising for value unless my results were higher up the food chain. For example, say I bet and then raised by a TOM, and then called in two spots. We can probly put the TOM on a made hand, but what are those two callers drawing to, what are their starting standards. Just to many if's not to make some kind of adjustment.

Go ahead and blaze away.

[Louie Landale]

2nd paragraph: Yes. The biggest problem folks have is confusing the difference between "making the hand" and "winning". You should compare your "pot-odds" with your odds against winning, not with the odds against making your hand: if the flop is KdQdJd and you have 3h2h, you have "6 outs to make your hand" but so what.

1st paragraph: No. Well, mostly no. With this many folks in the pot you are GOING to see the turn card with your big draw. Yes, you need to reduce my "2:1" chances a little bit for the times you do NOT see the turn (that would be if the board pairs and its 3 bets to you and you fold but you WOULD have one had you called and made the flush. That's not often). You are 2:1 against making the hand and are realistically about a 2.5:1 dog against winning; and that maches favorably to the 3:1 you are getting for your raise. Raise. It doesn't matter that you are unlikely to want to bet or raise on the turn (if you miss).

But you are correct that if someone is considering CALLING the flop bet (say heads up against an obvious big pair), you cannot use the "2:1" figure without considering the cost of the turn bet. If the opponent bets 1sb into a 3sb pot and will bet the turn, then you can win 6sb for a cost of 3sb of 2:1; not enough for your 2:1 draw (since as you said you may lose even if you hit). In fact (heads up small pot), it turns out that you should often call the small flop bet and fold to a turn bet. That comes up with weak draws such as gut shots, since the pot is a little bigger and your impied odds are MUCH bigger, than it is on the turn.

- Louie