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#11
09-20-2004, 05:56 PM
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Re: This O8 play cost me my stack
I agree that it's a pretty awful hand to call pre-flop, but it was one of those sessions where I would seldom get a decent hand and when I did it would never work out. The table was very loose-aggresive with plenty of crappy hands taking down huge pots so I limped in with this hand hoping to see A-3 on the flop. Since I had two dueces I thought that it was less likely that my opponents would have A-2 and one mini-raise wasn't enough to get me to fold this marginal speculative hand. If the CO had PL raised I would've mucked it in a heartbeat.
Now I know this is less than optimal strategy. I was losing patience waiting for AK23ds A2QQs or even A310Js type hands to come along. My pre-flop decision was bad. What I was concerned with was my decisions after I had flopped the third best possible made hand vs. two players. It was hard to give give the CO credit for having me beat because he was raising all the time. 90% of the time in these low limit games a pre-flop raise means A2xx or AAxx. Turns out he spiked a two-outer A on the turn to beat me. In hindsight I should've been more concerned about the guy who called in between us. 
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#12
09-20-2004, 06:50 PM
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Re: This O8 play cost me my stack
[ QUOTE ]
he wasnt going to get the guy off his 8 so why not just call him down... [/ QUOTE ] Mando - As primarily a limit Omaha-8 player, I don't belong in this thread, which should be in the Pot-Limit Omaha forum instead of this forum. My thinking is Knuteboy doesn't know for certain that his opponent has an eight. What if his opponent has an overpair, aces for example? My thinking is Knuteboy shouldn't want to give someone with an overpair a cheap ride here. [ QUOTE ] with 10 outs...that would be more like 40 percent right??? [/ QUOTE ] I think 40 percent is close enough. I'm interested in this, so I'll show some more thinking (in blue and green) below. Doesn't really have much to do with how to play this hand. <font color="blue">It's hard to know exactly how many outs an opponent who might have an eight has. Knuteboy could hold a blocking card (or two or three blocking cards). For example, if Knuteboy's opponent (CO) holds: • 8765, KB has 0 blockers; CO has 10 outs, • 8764, KB has 1 blocker; CO has 9 outs, • 874T, KB has 2 blockers; CO has 8 outs, • 824T, KB has 3 blockers; CO has 7 outs, • 87KK, KB has 0 blockers; CO has 6 outs, • 84KK, KB has 1 blocker; CO has 5 outs, • 84TT, KB has 2 blockers; CO has 4 outs. I think that's the gamut. But Knuteboy doesn't even know for certain if his opponent holds an eight, let alone what his opponent's other cards are. But anyhow, if Knuteboy's opponent has 10 outs, and if Knuteboy goes all-in on the second betting round, then Knuteboy's opponent has two cards to catch one of the ten outs. In order to do the figuring, we have to put Knuteboy's opponent on a specific (but tentative) four-card hand. Then we do the figuring as though we can see eleven cards instead of seven cards. If CO has 8765 (or simply any hand such that KB has no blockers), then out of the 41 unknown cards, 31 are favorable for KB and the other 10 are unfavorable. Two two-card combinations, an eight with a two, make quads for them both and KB loses both of those with lower quads. O.K. here's the math (in green) for 31 unfavorable and 10 favorable cards for KB's opponent CO:</font> <font color="green">1-31/41*30/40 = 0.4329</font> <font color="blue">If CO has ten outs for high, then CO wins the high 43.29%, KB wins the high 56,71%. This is the most likely distribution. If CO has nine outs for high, then 1-32/41*31/40 = 0.3951 CO wins the high 39.51%, KB wins the high 60,49%. This is the 2nd most likely distribution. If CO has eight outs for high, then 1-33/41*32/40 = 0.3561 CO wins the high 35.61%, KB wins the high 64,39%. If CO has seven outs for high, then 1-34/41*33/40 = 0.3159 CO wins the high 31.59%, KB wins the high 68,41%. If CO has six outs for high, then 1-35/41*34/40 = 0.2744 CO wins the high 27.44%, KB wins the high 72.56%. This is the most likely distribution if CO has a pair plus an eight. If CO has five outs for high, then 1-36/41*35/40 = 0.2317 CO wins the high 23.17%, KB wins the high 76.83%. If CO has four outs for high, then 1-37/41*36/40 = 0.1878 CO wins the high 18.78%, KB wins the high 81.22%. </font> Enough. Buzz
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#14
09-23-2004, 03:45 PM
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Re: This O8 play cost me my stack
[ QUOTE ]
how do you go all-in preflop in a .25/.50 limit game? [/ QUOTE ] Ah Matt.... When I play poker I buy some chips and stack them in front of me. Whatever monetary amount the chips represent, some people want to end up with all the chips at the table. I'm content to end up with more chips than I started with. Once in a while I'll get low in chips. Usually when that happens, I'll either re-buy or go home. But sometimes I may not rebuy until the blind passes. If I was playing .25/.50, I might do the same thing. Thus it's possible, especially when posting a blind, that I could be playing with a short stack - and for some kinds of hands I'd want to go all-in before the flop. At whatever limits you're playing, the way you get all-in with a short stack when you're in the blind is by raising or re-raising when the action gets to you and hoping that an opponent re-raises. Buzz
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#16
09-24-2004, 04:37 AM
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Re: This O8 play cost me my stack
emp1346 - Thanks for the laugh. How did you conceive of that absolutely hilarious face? Don't bother answering, but let me tell you that I am impressed. Nice job! Very creative!
[ QUOTE ] Do you hands hurt from writing essay-length responses to everything you reply to? [/ QUOTE ] Somehow I understand better what I think when I write. I used to figure three hours per page. That’s how long it took me to write a typed page. Probably still takes me that long, on the average. I’ll write a few thoughts, get up and do something else, maybe several things, for a while - come back and write a few more thoughts, go do something else a while, come back and revise what I’ve written, sit for a while thinking before writing another line or two, take another break - and that routine continues indefinitely. And that’s the same slow, laborious procedure writing has always been for me. But although slow and laborious, the process is not tedious when I'm writing about something I enjoy discussing. And Omaha-8 is my diversion from life's cares. So to (finally) answer your question, no, my hands don’t hurt when I write. I realize you’re teasing me, but thanks for asking - and thanks for creating that clever and amusing face. Buzz
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#17
09-27-2004, 01:14 PM
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Re: This O8 play cost me my stack
[ QUOTE ]
Somehow I understand better what I think when I write. [/ QUOTE ] And after reading what you write, I always understand something better as well. I know I'm not the only one. Thanks for your contribution to the forum, Buzz.
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#19
10-04-2004, 05:39 AM
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Re: This O8 play cost me my stack
T4s 22 is junk I would routinely fold and you now know why....
Making low boat or trips with all the combos of cards that could be out is asking for trouble, especially with BAD low possibilities. If a 2 shows up, it increases that the possibility of there being A low hand something with T4s 22 your don't really want. T4s 22 is a trap hand, pure and simply, only flop I love is 229 and if that IS the flop, won't likely get much action, so another reason to hate it right there... O8B is not for the meek or easily sent to TILTSVILLE. >TW<
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