Rick';s "Fundamental Theorem of Disagreement" (version 0.1)

[andyfox]

From Anatta's post:

"on the subsequent 1000000 hands, Clarkmeister's analysis that made him just miss the right answer will serve him better than Dynasty's flawed analysis that gave him the wrong answer."

Depends which subsequent 1,000,000 hands. If it's the same hand being played 1,000,000 times, Dynasty's flawed analysis makes him money because it ended up with him making the correct decision; Clarkmeister's closer answer ended up being on the wrong side of the call/fold line and thus cost him money. But, of course, if Dynasty's analyses are always further away than Clarkmeister's, he's going to end up worse off in the real world of a myriad of different decisions.

[I assume Dynasty understands we're only using his name here because of the high regard in which we hold him, and the fact that he is "wrong" in the example we're using is only because we're tossing out a respected name and has nothing to do with us thinking he'd be wrong on a decision.]

I still think the player who's "more right" has to be the player who came up with the correct "absolute" answer. Maybe we're only disagreeing on semantics.

[andyfox]

For internet players: are you capable of determining now much you win or lose in this type of situation? Can you ascertain, that is, what your actual results are when you overcall on the flop with overpair weak kicker against X opponednts?

[Rick Nebiolo]

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[Maybe we're only disagreeing on semantics.

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Hey, it's only version 0.1.1 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

~ Rick

[Zeno]

What are you ultimately trying to clarify? Does it really mean anything? Will it really be useful? Doesn't this just add another layer to analysis? Continuums are subject to flaws in interval assignments, the finite gradations, and the infinite amount of interpretations.

Devils advocate I’m playing.



Andy's point(s) still stand - how to apply a gradational concept to the absolute of call, fold, and rise, which are either or choices and concepts.

Your idea many actually be more applicable to PL and NL games.

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(this line is stolen from an old Abdul Jalib post regarding Sklansky's "Fundamental Theorem of Poker")

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Is this post/thread still available?

-Zeno

[Tommy Angelo]

"PS You were kidding in your first response to mike l., right?"

Nope. I meant every word of it as long as you include all of it.

Tommy

[chezlaw]

I'll have another go at this. If I'm missing something or unclear or talking rubbish then please feel free to mention it.

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"on the subsequent 1000000 hands, Clarkmeister's analysis that made him just miss the right answer will serve him better than Dynasty's flawed analysis that gave him the wrong answer."

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This statement seems to reflect the general idea behind the theorem but isn't it results oriented thinking based on a sample size of one? You have two analysis that you know both contain mistakes - what reason is there for supposing that the one that happened to work best this time will prove better in the long run?


chez

[Aces McGee]

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Maybe we're only disagreeing on semantics.

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But these semantics are absolutely crucial to evaluating the theorem, are they not?

-McGee

[gergery]

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Now Dynasty thought that a call was the correct play, but he didn't recognize that folding was almost as good a play. Clarkmeister incorrectly thought folding was the best play, but he recognized the play was close.

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Then Dynasty makes more money with less understanding of the position, while Clarkmeister makes less money with more understanding of the position. Sadly, you can’t deposit understanding at the bank; It’s the decision that matters. Since understanding is only valuable to the extent that it translates into better decisions, I’m not supporter of the Theorum.

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Because he plays bigger and is clearly smarter, his opinion should have more validity.


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Not necessarily. You may both be beating the crap out of your games because each play is right for that game. For example, the 100-200 might have strong players who will fold often enough to his bets to make his overcalls correct, while your 10-20 game might be loose enough that you can’t value bet your marginal holdings profitably.

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The difference between our estimates is significant since knowing when to take one off on the flop after several callers is an important skill if you want to be a winning player.

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Yes, but if the EV is a fairly small swing in either direction, perhaps there is a greater EV swing decision that you have not uncovered yet, and your reposting efforts on this decision might be more profitably spent on uncovering that situation.

--Greg

[Rick Nebiolo]

Zeno,

Sorry I didn't get back sooner. Was exhausted last night and busy today.


[ QUOTE ]
What are you ultimately trying to clarify? Does it really mean anything? Will it really be useful? Doesn't this just add another layer to analysis? Continuums are subject to flaws in interval assignments, the finite gradations, and the infinite amount of interpretations.

[/ QUOTE ]

In mike l.'s post people very strongly disagree with my comments regarding the flop call. I hope to find a simple way to quantify their disagreement (or agreement). My plan is to post the problem tomorrow morning.


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Andy's point(s) still stand - how to apply a gradational concept to the absolute of call, fold, and rise, which are either or choices and concepts.

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If the choice is call or fold to a small bet, can't I ask someone who would call at what surcharge you would now fold. For example, if it is $60 to call and you would call, would you pay $70, $80, $90 and so on. If you would fold, would a $10, $20, $30 discount make it worth a call? I believe this will work well for this type of problem in order to determine how strongly people believe in their play.



[ QUOTE ]
(this line is stolen from an old Abdul Jalib post regarding Sklansky's "Fundamental Theorem of Poker") Is this post/thread still available?


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I'm sure it is, but there are three diferent archives on this forum, and no way to efficiently and reliably search through them all (unless I am paid lots [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

In a later version I hape to make it clear that the one sample represents the typical or general scneario.

~ Rick