GALLUP: Bush 54% Kerry 40% - the race is over.

[Matty]

It turns out Gallup has made huge erros in their poll weighting.

If people turn out like they did in 2000, (40.3 D, 36.5 R, 23.2 I/O), then the race is tied at 48 according to the internals of Gallup's poll (Bush 95-4 among Rs, Kerry 85-11 among Ds, Kerry 51-41 among I/O's).

What's worse is they've been using this skewed party weighting this entire election season. That's why they're consistently the most pro-Bush poll. They're saying the turnout is going to be GOP: 40, Dem 33, and I/O: 28.

Let's look at the last three elections:

1992: 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race)
1996: 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents
2000: 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents

So, Republican turnout is going to climb an unprecendented 14% this year, while Democratic turnout is going to drop an unprecendented 15%? I think not. The weighting of that poll is bullshit. Especially considering there is no powerful third-party candidate like in '92. I mean, look at how much more money Kerry and other anti-Bush groups have raised than Gore did. Democratic Presidential Candidates have raised $470 million this year. That does not include 527s. But no, we're not going to turn out to vote ...

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002806.html

[Matty]

[ QUOTE ]


The problem with polls is they don't call people on thier cell phones. All those voter without land lines (like me) are not getting polled. Huge blocks of conservatives are being missed.

Stu

[/ QUOTE ]I don't think you can say cell phone users are primarily conservative. I think what you can say is they are primarily younger. And younger doesn't trend conservative. It trends elsewhere.