Worst value bet ever?

[daveymck]

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Whether to bet the river or not depends on your opponent, but if you do bet, it must be with the intention of calling.

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The way he played it makes it transparently obvious he has a flush. Do you think an unknown Party 3/6 player will raise with a worse hand 10% of the time?

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Yes, raising scarey rivers is the latest trend amongnst Part 3/6 unknowns. Maybe the "Only way he can win this is to bluff" that gets said on the WPT broadcasts every week has an affect I dont know.

[Nate tha' Great]

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If you can't fold to a raise, I'd rather check and call.

Do you think that means I'm not value betting this river enough?

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I'd probably check and call in this particular spot.

[lil']

As do I.

This is a value bet I will not make against an unknown. If I am going to make it, my opponent has to prove his suckiness to me.

[challenger84]

After much consideration, I think check calling would have been the best move here. I don't think there's much value in this bet, as he probably won't call with too many worse hands. What about the flop raise that's been bandied about? Is this a pretty standard play, or was I right in trying to build the pot, over trying to win the pot?

[lil']

I think raising the flop here is important.

Say the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is out there. When you call the flop, the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] has odds to call for one more bet with the overcard and backdoor flush outs. You'd like him out, because you don't want to be vulnerable to a redraw if you make your flush on the turn. By raising, you may force him to fold with poor odds, or make a poor call when you are the favorite to win.

Also, it's not like you have nothing on the flop. You have a pair and a draw. You may be best, and even if you aren't, you may be a favorite anyway with all of your draws (flush, 2 pair and trips).

[daveymck]

I think there is a part in SSH that deals with these lower draws and suggests just calling. Will see if I can find the page when I get home shortly.

[lil']

Bah! We don't need some book to tell us how to live! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Why do you think calling is better, off the top of your head? I'm open to discussion.

[busguy]

I would :

fold pre-flop
raise the flop
bet the turn
check-call the river.

Pre-flop - I'm not a fan of suited connecters in this early a position.

Flop - With a nut flush draw I definitely want to keep as many people in, but with an 8 high I would like to narrow the field and hopefully (not often at Party) get the single Ah or Kh to fold.

Turn : plays itself

River : check/call if you want to see his cards cheaply

my 2 cents

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] busguy

oh, and definitely NOT the worst value bet ever

[daveymck]

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Bah! We don't need some book to tell us how to live! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Why do you think calling is better, off the top of your head? I'm open to discussion.

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I would be raising here.

However the arguments for purely calling would be (and for the sake of argument he hasnt a pair)

You are purely drawing to the flush you have no outs for a pair to be good.
You are not drawing to the nut flush.
You do not want to be three bet or worse on this or any street.
You dont need to build the pot as it is already big.
If you make your hand on the turn you are very open to redraws, chances are you lose your chance to raise the turn to protect your hand as it is likely checked to you.

Thats the other side of the argumet as I see it, how valid any of these are is open to debate.

[DMBFan23]

the part you're referring to deals with a 6 or 7 high flush draw on a flop of overcards, where the hero in that example is not sensitive to the size of the field - he likely won't win by spiking a pair, and he likely will win if he hits his flush.

here I think our hero has more equity than in that example, and in addition, his draw is sensitive to the size of the field. he can hit trips or two pair (slightly discounted, the 8 probably isnt a full out...), in addition to his flush. a raise is nice because he would like anyone with TJ, or even just a T, to fold right now in case he catches an 8. raising this flop is a must IMO. raising may also chase out the lone A or K of [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], a nice bonus if he picks his flush up on the turn.