An Early hand from the WPT Bad Boys last night - Page 2

swimfan · #11 09-09-2004, 02:15 PM

and of course, Devil may be defending his BB and may have a greater chance of folding to an all-in against a button who at first glance may have initially been trying to steal.

SossMan · #12 09-09-2004, 02:33 PM

IMO, this is huge.

Antonio is on the button, Devil is on the SB (with Darden, a pretty tight player in the BB).

The fact that it is an open raise from the button puts Devilfish on a much wider range of hands than a normal range of reraising hands. Devil will fold a pretty high percentage of the hands that he could reraise with to an all in. I would estimate that Devil would make this play w/ any Ace (as he did), any 66-AA, KQ-KT, and a handfull of medium suited connectors.
However, he should probably only be calling an all in w/ JJ-AA, AK, maybe AQ and TT.
Antonio's folding equity is tremendous given the size of the pot in relation to everyone's stacks as well as the fact that it's a winner take all. Also, survival means less here since you only have one soft target at the table.

I haven't taken into consideration the TV exposure, since I'm sure it's nominal at most in his thought process.

swimfan · #13 09-09-2004, 02:58 PM

good points...once you pointed position out i thought his folding equity would vastly improve...i'm always a step behind. however, how much do you think FE diminishes because of...

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Also, survival means less here since you only have one soft target at the table.

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...i don't think it negates all, perhaps a little to some.

SossMan · #14 09-09-2004, 03:01 PM

however, how much do you think FE diminishes because of...

Quote:
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Also, survival means less here since you only have one soft target at the table.

I think i included that in the range of hands that I though he would call the all in with. If you want to account for it a little more, widen the range of hands to include things like 88-99 and AJ. FE is still substantial.

Dentist · #15 09-09-2004, 05:16 PM

This is not related to the original post.

But words cannot express how much I hate Gus Hansen.

Is he not the luckiest SOB EVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR?

I want to throw up in my mouth when I see the plays he makes.
He is so horrible that I cannot believe he wins these things.
I would go out of my WAY to bust him if he were at my table.

Amazing how the cards reward his moronic play and that is so revered for lucky play after lucky play.

Roman · #16 09-09-2004, 05:46 PM

lol I dont really think his play was bad at all considering the circumstances.

fnord_too · #17 09-09-2004, 07:16 PM

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I want to throw up in my mouth when I see the plays he makes.
He is so horrible that I cannot believe he wins these things.
I would go out of my WAY to bust him if he were at my table.

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I wonder how many people will give him their stacks in upcoming tournies because they feel the same way.

If you think he is horrible, I think you are kidding yourself. He certainly appears wreckless often, but he DOES make a lot of final tables, he DOES win often, and he is by all accounts a top flight backgammon player (you have to be able to compute probabilities pretty quickly and accurately to be a great backgammon player.) I'm guessing a lot of the apparently crazy plays he makes are more sound than they appear, though I do think he gambles it up at times.

Dentist · #18 09-10-2004, 08:49 AM

I'm sure he's a good player for the most part...

And actually I think a lot of people like him.

I realize TV editing can paint a completely different picture, but all I see out of him is suckout after suckout after lucky card, after completely BS play and I just absolutely HATE his game.

I almost need to turn the EFFIN' announcers off because I am so sick of hearing things like: "oh he's FEARLESS" "he can show up with ANY two cards" "he really EARNED that pot"

What a bunch of BS

I hate even MORE that people actually think that's good play.

fnord_too · #19 09-10-2004, 09:29 AM

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I hate even MORE that people actually think that's good play.

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I LOVE these people, they donate frequently to my favorite charity [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Dentist · #20 09-10-2004, 10:52 AM

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lol I dont really think his play was bad at all considering the circumstances.

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All they show is him hitting tons of 3 outers, inside straights and other BS.
I hope you're kidding here.

In fact, it seems like all they show on most poker programs is one bad beat after another... mathematical improbability at it's best.

But I guess without a showdown there can't be a bad beat and they don't show pots on TV where you have AK, raise, get called, flop an ace, bet and win. Unexciting, they don't show it.
Blind steals.. they dont' show 'em

There's so much poker they DON'T show.

But I love all the bad beats they show... makes people think they can pull that crap off all the time.

Except that on Riverstars they can because they reward courage and bad play there... LOL