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#11
09-08-2004, 06:57 PM
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Re: \"your kings are good\" - how did he know?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Not too many people make guesses and then keep repeating "you had kings. no, i know you had kings. your kings were good." etc. [/ QUOTE ] he said," You had kings." but then he added, "Or queens were good too"...so he wasn't positive. [/ QUOTE ] That must have been a different hand you're referring to. In this hand it was something like... "your kings are good" kings? "yes, you had two kings" i wish, a-10 "no, you had kings, your kings were good" Of course im paraphrasing, but that's the jist of it. It wasn't so much that he was right about the hand, I've seen people guess right before. But in the past it's always come off as guessy (I know thats not a word). It was the pure unwaivering confidence he had in saying he knew he had kings was what made this different in my mind. 
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#13
09-08-2004, 07:24 PM
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Re: \"your kings are good\" - how did he know?
Well, it was impressive, but let's review it.
Asian guy raises, Marcel reraises with AJ. Asian guy pretty quickly rereraises. Marcel figures due to his AJ, he most likely doesn't have AA..and with the quickness of the RRR it is not AK (also more likely to pushin with AK). He'd also have to think about QQ. And if AA, people often put on a show. Thus, KK really was the most likely hand by a good amount, although he said QQ was possible. Impressive yes..but not spooky.
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#15
09-08-2004, 08:03 PM
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Re: \"your kings are good\" - how did he know?
Well, it sure is good to know how easy of read it is.
I guess next time I want to take down a pot before the flop I will just play it exactly like that since I can easily get any hand beside AA to fold since it would be sooooo obvious that I was holding KK.
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#16
09-08-2004, 08:08 PM
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Re: \"your kings are good\" - how did he know?
ok but maybe you are proving my point.. that is, how many people would remember that negreanu guessed wrong? how many would remember that luske guessed correctly?
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#17
09-08-2004, 08:13 PM
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Re: \"your kings are good\" - how did he know?
unless you are playing like a maniac..actually yes.
unless somebody is pretty well committed, it becomes almost impossible for them to call unless they have AA or KK. This shows the power of AK, as it makes it so much less likely they will have AA or KK. You don't actually think you are ahead, but you know it'll be a tough call, and if made you are nearly a coinflip..so mainly going after folding equity. Online in a $20 tourney it is tough to get people to lay down QQ, JJ, etc. But in a big tourney against any kind of a conservative player..yes, he will fold QQ or less. Of course if you did an early position raise and get repopped by a decent player, it becomes much more likely he has AA or KK, thus you are risking your tourney life and likely not getting the odds on your bluff, unless you have a decent A (as then you have about a 30% if against KK which is the most likely calling hand). Trying to give you more insight..but really, yes.
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#20
09-08-2004, 08:55 PM
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Re: \"your kings are good\" - how did he know?
i'm not trying to give you a hard time either [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr /> also..the title of the post was how did he know? two of us explained how he knew. [/ QUOTE ] i hear you, but my contention was that he didn't "know" but guessed. definitely an educated guess... but everyone gets lucky sometimes.
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