Applying a concept made easy?

[Rubeskies]

Oh ok, yeah I see your point. I agree that people do make that misconception a lot. They probably get too carried away with the notion that the pot is large so how can I win it now. You want to make the play with the most EV+. Number of pots won doesn't matter. Big Bets won does.

[MoreWineII]

Good points, all of them.

*sigh*

Strike one.

I guess I'm completely misunderstanding the concept of wiating until the turn to raise. Back to the drawing board.

[Rubeskies]

The only suggestion I can give you is that when this happens, raise unless you can give a solid reason that you are confident with for waiting to the turn and your positves outweight your negatives by a lot.

[Stefan Prodan]

[ QUOTE ]
What concept are you talking about? If its "keep the pot small to reduce the odds they're getting on the turn" then be prepared to get blasted.

The problem with calling the flop, hehehe, figuring to call the turn is [1] you let weak-draws in cheap. They're getting about 12:1 to call now and are sure to pick-up more ground when they 3-bet the turn. [2] BB may check the turn leaving you with your pants down. This is especially true in this draw rich flop, since a lot of players will bet a draw and check the turn. [3] If the opponents are getting the right odds to call one turn bet but not two, and will correctly call one but fold to your turn raise, you do NOT gain very much by the clever raise. Getting 4 small bets from them (raise the flop, they call, then they call your single turn bet) is going to be better for you than letting them call 1sb cheap and then fold. [4] You give up your chance to 3-bet the flop AND 2-bet the turn when you slow-play.

But if they are going to call no matter what AND BB is going to bet the turn, then you do a little better by slow-playing.

You need a good reason to get cute. I don't see one here. Play straight forward.

- Louie

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems like what you're saying is that if he were closing the action, calling the flop and planning to raise the turn would be the better line since he could almost guarantee they would all call one more bet on the turn, plus he would be able to get more money in as a bigger favorite, correct?

[Chicanist]

The way I understand this concept, and I certainly could be wrong, is that the "wait until the turn to raise" idea usually only applies to fairly vulnerable hands. I don't think AA on that board is a fairly vulnerable hand, and like everyone else has already said, you probably won't get rid of flush draws, but you can get rid of single diamonds.

If, however, you had a hand like A9 of clubs on this flop, then I think the wait until the turn to raise concept is a good plan ... now your hand is fairly vulnerable and waiting until the turn to protect it is a good idea.

Edit: another way to say this is that AA doesn't need much protecting, most of the raises are for value, while A9's raises are intended for the most part to protect your hand. least that's way I look at it.


Does this sound right to other people as well?

[MaxPower]

The pot is not big enough and the board is not coordinated enough to justify waiting for the turn. If you raise the flop the next guy is getting 13:2, which will cut down the odds enough for draws with less than 6 outs.

[Malcom Reynolds]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'm completely misunderstanding the concept of wiating until the turn to raise. Back to the drawing board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, there are 11 bets in the pot when it comes to you. So if you raise, the next person is getting 6.5 to 1 on a call, which protects your hand against weak draws.

I think the idea of waiting until the turn is if the pot is big enough, and raising doesn't protect your hand, consider raising the turn.

Say there are now 20 SB to you on the flop. If you raise, you're giving the next guy 11 to 1, which makes a gutshot correct to call, so raising does not protect your hand. If you just call, raising the turn could possibly reduce the odds to something like 5 to 1 to your next customer, depending on the betting on the flop.

I'm also a newbie at this concept... so I'd much like someone else to chime in here and tell me if I'm completely off base with this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[MoreWineII]

It's obviously a concept that I don't understand enough to be attempting to apply at this point in time. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[tolbiny]

You got about half of it right. The other half is the fact that he has AA with a flop that he should win a majority of the time. His goal should be to get the most money into the pot at this point, If he had TT (to completely steal ed miller's example) he would be vulnerable to overcards as well as straight/flush draws out there. He would no longer be the favorite to win the hand on the flop, but may be when the turn comes. He can then raise the turn if the cards on board/the betting going on still look rosey to him.

[tolbiny]

If, however, you had a hand like A9 of clubs on this flop, then I think the wait until the turn to raise concept is a good plan ... now your hand is fairly vulnerable and waiting until the turn to protect it is a good idea.

I would like some other thoughts on this concept. In ed's book he talks about not raising a hand like TT in this position- but A9 is different since it has 5 outs to improve if it gets overtaken, where as TT only has the 2.
Would it change if you had T9-K9 at all, and if so how much?