Ed Miller Changed My Life

[Kopefire]

You're the second person to suggest that -- so I'm guessing it's probably true.

Can someone explain this to me while I go back to re-read the relevant sections in SSH?

Thanks!

[k000k]

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Perhaps I've had it all wrong all along (I quit poker if I do! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]), but it's a common concept that a lot of new players mix up.

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You're not wrong.. But he has something in the way of implied odds to make up for it.. I don't think it's enough though, I'd definately check that turn.

[kgrad5]

you are incorrect, the bet on the flop is correct as you are getting better then 4-1 odds with two cards to come and you can expect a lot of callers, however the turn bet is not a bet for value, there are only 3 people in the pot, for the bet on the turn to be profitable there has to be atleast 4 callers to break even because you are a 4-1 dog to make your hand by the river. it is a good semi bluff however, and the hero should be hoping that everyone folds, i think i would check the turn in this situation as i will lose the least if my hand doesnt hit and might still get a free showdown or can bluff at the end.


edit: just noticed other people already made this response.. sorry for repeating

[afk]

Sure thing, I'll do a quick explanation. Any other help is appreciated though.

Calling based on pot odds:
Let's use your hand as an example, there's 4.5 BB in the pot on the turn. If it's checked to you, you should probably check your draw because you are getting infinite pot odds - you'd effectively be paying $0 to win $4.5 if you hit on the river and win. Let's assume that MP2 bets on the turn. Now the pot is 5.5BB and you have to call 1 BB when your odds against hitting are 4.1:1 - easy call, especially since the other player might call and you'll probably win at least one more bet on the next round if you hit - these are implied odds - you're immediately getting 5.5:1, but when you factor in the 2 bets you might additionally win, it's like you're getting 7.5:1 on a 4:1 draw, easy, easy call.

Betting a draw based on odds:
Lets use your example again. You're last to act on the flop with an OESD. On the flop, you are about 2.2:1 against to hit your draw by the river. When it gets checked to you on the flop you can also check, getting infinite pot odds to draw. Or since there are so many people in the hand you can bet and try to make some money off it when you do hit. Remember, you're 2.2:1 to hit by the river, so if you bet the flop and get called in 3 places, you're essentially getting a 3:1 return on a 2.2:1 risk - that makes you money. If you miss on the turn, you're now 4.1:1 to hit on the river - if you bet, you'd need to get called in 5 places to make money on that bet - unless of course you thought your bet had a good chance (in relation to the size of the pot) of making your opponents fold, then you're betting for a different reason.

I hope this makes some sense, I'm sure others can articulate it better than I can.

[lefty rosen]

Considering he was up against a party moron. The bluff might not work. Ace 2 suited is total crap that is only to be played in very late or small blind. But since it's Party its call anywhere and chase it down............ [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps I've had it all wrong all along (I quit poker if I do! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]), but it's a common concept that a lot of new players mix up.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not wrong.. But he has something in the way of implied odds to make up for it.. I don't think it's enough though, I'd definately check that turn.

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His implied odds are even better if he just takes the free card. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[spamuell]

I just love quoting myself, I tried to explain this concept to someone else here, I hope this is of some help.

[Zetack]

Just wondering why y'all keep using the flush draw odds instead of the OESD odds. Sure they're close enough that you can prety much call with an OESD wherever you could call with a flush draw.

However, your turn odds are 4.75-1, not 4.1-1--which makes that turn bet even worse if its done just for value.

--Zetack