NFL betting - tips?

[Iceman]

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if you play two games and go 1-1 you lose juice, If I play 3 games I have a better chance of going 2-1 and coming out ahead.

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I don't understand this. You also have a better chance of going 1-2. It is a long season. Why would it matter if you go 1-1 this week, for example, and 2-0 next week? You would still be up on the season. And if you are a losing bettor (i have no idea whether you are or aren't) you are going to lose either way. I have no idea if you play poker, I assume you do, but sports betting is no different. It is one long season; just like it is one long poker game. In fact, to give this advice to a losing player (of never betting 2 games) is a bad idea. Because, his money will most likely not last as long and he won't get to have "fun" throughout the whole season. I just see this as faulty "money management" advice; like setting stop-losses, etc... Just my two cents. Any thoughts appreciated.

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You shouldn't worry about individual weeks. Focus on being a winning bettor overall. If you're 1-1 on point spread games in week 1, you had a losing week, who cares? The important thing is to be betting with an advantage within your bankroll, and that means making profitable bets where you find them, regardless of whether you make an odd or even number of bets each week.

[Slacker13]

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I have no idea if you play poker, I assume you do, but sports betting is no different.

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I play poker very well thank you.

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In fact, to give this advice to a losing player (of never betting 2 games) is a bad idea.

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First of all, and I didn't really want to get into this but now I must, I have not lost betting sports (football) in 6-7 years so I am curious to hear how you do. I am one of the few who can with 100% honesty say that I win betting sports. Football Only, I am not very good at basketball or baseball and that is why I stay away from those sports.

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In fact, to give this advice to a losing player (of never betting 2 games) is a bad idea. Because, his money will most likely not last as long and he won't get to have "fun" throughout the whole season.

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What? Having fun? if your betting simply to have fun then you shouldn't worry about the $5 -$10 dollars that is at risk. Ok, then why don’t you just bet parlays, there is no juice because you obviously expect to go 2-0 when you bet. My way of doing things is exactly that, my way. You don’t have to like it but it makes a lot more sense than betting 2 games, IMO you should bet odd numbers.

If I go 1-3, then yes I lose, if I go 0-3 then yes I lose but I do not expect to do those types of numbers. I am looking at 3-0, 2-1 or 3-2 where I make money, If i go 1-3 my losses are minimal and can be made up in another 2 games or the following week. If I am down I quit playing, if I am running cold I slow way down or quit and when i am up I always collect. That's proper money mgt.


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I just see this as faulty "money management" advice; like setting stop-losses, etc

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I can’t even answer this one. (scratching my head)

[Slacker13]

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You shouldn't worry about individual weeks. Focus on being a winning bettor overall.

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I agree and disagree with this. Your correct you should concentrate on being an overall winner but that is pretty much common sense, but someone like me who bets 98% of his action on football it is now narrowed down to a season, and weeks of a season. And because I collect on a weekly basis from a book then I base everything weekly with of course looking for an overall winning season.

I have been betting sports for quite awhile, and I am friends with guys who are also very good at betting sports (they taught me) but there are only a few of them, on the other hand I know one hell of a lot of people who are absolutely horrible at betting sports for a various amount of reasons, whether they are action junkies, bet the teams with the blue jerseys, whatever, bottom line they either have no control or do not take the time to study and make an effort to put the edge in their favor.

[craig r]

All I was trying to say was that if your bets have +ev, it doesn't matter if you bet 5 games (does not happen a lot in the NFL unless you are getting great numbers at some square shops) or 2 games. I apologize, I guess I should have just said that. What I don't understand, is if you see 2 games that look really nice, will you not bet them if there is not a third game to bet? This is an honest question, not an attack of any kind.

Also, I never once questioned whether you are a winning player. In fact, I said, you may or may not be. But, in response to your comment, I am a winning player. My first year was horrible (I had no idea what I was doing), but my last few years have been really good; especially in NFL. But, I think the reason I have done well is not my handicapping ability, but by being able to find very very soft lines at square shops (though there is some handicapping in this as well).


Also, you made a comment about parlays. There are situations in baseball where betting parlays is very profitable; i.e. correlated parlays.

craig

[Slacker13]

Sorry, maybe I read more into what you said. I apologize.

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What I don't understand, is if you see 2 games
that look really nice, will you not bet them if there is not a third game to bet? This is an honest question, not an attack of any kind.


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Definately, keep in mind I am not betting all 3 or 5 games at once, this is spread out throughout the week and you should never force a third, or fifth or any game if it is not a good play. If you play 2 games and go 2-0 I am not saying you should bet 3 or 5 at all, it may be a good time to quit while ahead and collect. Maybe I wasn't clear when I wrote this. Also, you need to keep in mind that not all bets should be treated equal, some may be worth a higher wager amount etc. Let’s put it this way, if I was in a contest picking football for an entire season and had to submit x-amount of games per week I would give them either 1-3 or 5 games and never 2 or 4. My reasons may be a bit vague but the main reason is I cannot see going 1-1 and losing the juice. That’s it, nothing written in stone and maybe I shouldn’t have even mentioned it because to be honest explaining my reasons why I do it are harder than I thought, it’s just something I do and was taught to do by the guys who taught me sports betting.

[ftball0000]

Slacker,

When you are talking about line moves, are you saying the following?

Buffalo -3
Jacksonville

then if the line moves to

Buffalo -3.5
Jacksonville

then you would bet on Buffalo b/c that's where the money is going, or you would bet on Jacksonville b/c the general public are a bunch of idiots. Thanks for the advice and if you have anymore I'd really be interested in hearing it.

-Ftball

[Slacker13]

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When you are talking about line moves, are you saying the following?

Buffalo -3
Jacksonville

then if the line moves to

Buffalo -3.5
Jacksonville


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Yes your correct, they are called steam plays but the key is knowing who is moving the line. Normally the smart money will come in right after the lines are set and right before kick off, it's the line moves in between those times that are driven by the general public. That's why I pay for the software I have because I get the line moves in real time so if i see Buf -3 and all of a sudden right before kickoff the jumps to 4.0 or 4.5 I know that the smart money has come in and effected that line and you would want to bet Buf. It's much better to have local bookies than offshore IMO that way when a line does move like that many of the local bookies do not react quick enough inmoving their lines and you can get very good value, it's very common in that situation to have a 1/2 pt to a point line difference and more in your favor.

[craig r]

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the key is knowing who is moving the line.

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That is the most important part. If it is public money, then one shouldn def. wait to bet the other side. I am a contrarian though.







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That's why I pay for the software I have because I get the line moves in real time

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what is the software you use?

craig

[Slacker13]

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what is the software you use?

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I use Don Best DBS2K at http://www.donbest.com . It's a bit pricey at $550 a month but it pays for itself easily. You would have to be a decent sized bettor to warrant paying that money.

[craig r]

thanks. i thought that might be what you use, but wanted to make sure. do you just pay for that during football season?