up a creek...where's that damn paddle...JJ - Page 2

DcifrThs · #11 08-30-2004, 04:50 AM

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I don't think it's worth it. I much prefer to take the free card here. The chances you have the best hand are getting pretty close to zero.

-Michael

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more and more players whose opinion i respect take differing lines...

how much of a mistake does each side of it cost? what are the real values of each side..

these simple questions i'mhaving trouble enumerating b/c i always seem to think in a full circle back to betting..

help..
-Barron

JTG51 · #12 08-30-2004, 05:01 AM

Just the fact you have Js makes this a bet.

If you think there's any chance you're ahead you should be more likely to bet without the J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] than with it. Not having the flush draw makes you much more vulnerable to being beaten by a free card.

Gettng raised by the player on my right would make me choke on my own vomit though.

That's a pretty good reason to check.

Guy McSucker · #13 08-30-2004, 08:13 AM

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at the same time, if i check and let somebody with T8 hit two pair i will have cost myself the pot.

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Admittedly i don't play these stakes and have never even watched a game, but it seems to me that the pot is so large, the only hand that can outdraw you which might fold on the turn is one containing a non-spade K and nothing else worthwhile, and this guy only has two outs. I really doubt checking it through on the turn costs you much.

If someone with T8 is going to fold to your bet, you should definitely bet, though.

Guy.

DcifrThs · #14 08-30-2004, 08:18 AM

i mean that it will be a bigger mistake than checking could be if i don't make him pay for that 5 outer... but if he'll 100% call anyway its really only a fraction of a bet and not the pot.

-Barron

sweetzer · #15 08-30-2004, 08:43 AM

Whenever the decision is that close, I would rather err on the side of the aggressive, thus I would bet (and of course likely be chkrasd).

1800GAMBLER · #16 08-30-2004, 09:19 AM

Eh.

Us having the flush draw increases the value of our hand because it increases the chances we win at showdown. We are ahead here a % of the time and we will improve a % of the time, these two added up should very well give us overlay the majority of the time against callers hence we are making money. The only time we aren't is when a raise like that happens.

Without the Js we may or may not be getting overlay on our bet, it's just a lot less likely.

I don't check here just because i have outs. Having the Js no way makes me more likely to check.

Mikey · #17 08-30-2004, 09:27 AM

bet it.

even if you are behind you have the odds to draw to a flush which isn the 2nd nut, the odds of you hittin in on the turn is 4.1 to 1. And with 5 to 6 opp, calling your turn bet you really don't mind if they all call.

Ohh my goodness you can spike a set too, so add 2 more outs to your hand, so with 11 outs, you really don't mind getting called or even raised because you have a lot of equity in this pot.

Bet! Throw those chips in.

steveyz · #18 08-30-2004, 09:53 AM

I check.

There's close to 0 chance of still having the best hand at this point. Assuming your J outs are good, you are about 3:1 to improve. So if you can get 4 or more callers and if no one raises and if no one has the K of spades, betting for value would be a good play. But that's one too many ifs for me.
Also, it was mentioned that betting could get some hands to fold incorrectly. However, no better hands will fold here so the only hands you will fold are hands with a marginal draw (middle pair, gut-shot straight draw) which may or may not have the correct odds to see the river. However, these hands are only taking away from your equity if you currently have the best hand. But since you need to improve to the best hand, and the hand you are drawing towards is basically the 2nd nuts, you don't have to worry about one of these draws improving on the river to beat your hand because if you hit your draw on the river, you will have the best hand most of the time (K of spades isn't going anywhere obviously), and if you don't, you didn't have the best hand anyways. So really, the people that would fold incorrectly are taking away equity from people who are holding hands like AT or KQ without a spade, not from you.

I'd say there's less than 5% chance of you still having the best hand right now and that's not enough for me to bet here.

steveyz · #19 08-30-2004, 10:03 AM

I disagree. Checking will not be a big mistake here. You are still assuming that you have the best hand on the turn. What do you think the chances of that are? I don't think it's very high. There's really no need to get those 5-outers to fold or pay as they are taking away pot equity from your opponents who have a lone Q or A and without a spade, not from you. The only times they are taking equity from you is when you still have the best hand, which I think is less than 5% here, perhaps much less.

Senor Choppy · #20 08-30-2004, 10:19 AM

What are the odds that 9 people see a flop and no one has a Q? Or an A? Or 2 spades? (Also, when did everyone just decide to discount the presence of FIVE callers?)

Why anyone wants to open up the betting again here is beyond me. The ace of spades now makes it a virtual lock that you're losing given the flop action. This is the reason the button is so valuable, take the free card and hope for a spade.