30-60 Turn Decision

[mike l.]

"The pot is quite large, 19 BB....I say it's a fold, but it's really really close."

you said it. and nothing else in between matters. this is really really bad advice.

[rigoletto]

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fold-a-rama

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No way. He's got outs.

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if by "outs" you mean a 6 then yea...he's got outs lol...

-Barron

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Are you kidding? He could even still be ahead at this point. It's a call.

[Nightwish]

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"The pot is quite large, 19 BB....I say it's a fold, but it's really really close."

you said it. and nothing else in between matters. this is really really bad advice.

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Do you stop counting outs once the pot crosses a certain threshold?

[mike l.]

"Do you stop counting outs once the pot crosses a certain threshold?"

youre missing this and it's very simple yet very impotant. reread my post.

i was criticizing the fact you are saying to make a "really really close" fold in a 19 big bet pot.

no one should ever make a "really really close" fold in a pot that size.

save the really close folds for the smaller pots (like 4-5 bets or something).

hope that's clear. no very close folds in very big pots. just dump the chips in and get on with it.

[Nightwish]

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"Do you stop counting outs once the pot crosses a certain threshold?"

youre missing this and it's very simple yet very impotant. reread my post.

i was criticizing the fact you are saying to make a "really really close" fold in a 19 big bet pot.

no one should ever make a "really really close" fold in a pot that size.

save the really close folds for the smaller pots (like 4-5 bets or something).

hope that's clear. no very close folds in very big pots. just dump the chips in and get on with it.

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Yes, I would certainly use that strategy on the river, and even more certainly if I was closing the action in a heads up situation.

But Mike, do you disagree with my EV calculation? If yes, then by how much? If we agree that calling vs folding is either a little -EV or a little +EV, then it really doesn't matter what you do. So how can my advice be really really bad?

[mike l.]

"So how can my advice be really really bad?"

because if you are even a little off (say 10% or 20% or something, if judgement of players in a multiway pot can be calculated in percents) the error is pretty bad because the pot is so big.

save the close folds for smaller pots and the close calls for bigger pots. you see?

[mike l.]

" What does MP have? He's a good, tight player. He raised preflop, 3-bet the flop, and now raises the turn. The smallest hand he can have is ArKd. There are 3 of those. But he could also have AA or 99, and there are 6 of those. I really can't see him having any other hands here. Maybe KdKr??? But I think that hand would just call."

here this deserves some attention. you are putting preflop raiser on too limited a hand range. he can have something like QdJs sometimes. he can have KdKx and be loving his nut flush draw and big pair still. he can have KdQd or KdJd sometimes. isolating utg limpers w/ good hands is fun and profitable most good mp preflop raisers know that. so you are being too limited in your hand range. what an awful mistake to make in a big pot. AK is not as likely a hand for mp because he shouldnt want to see 4 bets go in on that flop. but you never know i guess.

sb can have other hands as well. he can have a smaller set and wants to see where he's at, he can have A9 and just be aggro. he can have some slowly weirdly played AA. he does most likely have a flush.

i agree it is close but sometimes players do weird things in big pots. this hand is a call for two bets on the turn.

[SA125]

"1-2" player......mike l.

Hey, at least mike plays 100-200. I remember his wild posts at 20-40. Not that far off.

Unlike Ed who, after playing as pro for 1-1/2 yrs at 10-20, maybe 20-40, wrote a book.

[Diplomatdcm]

The thing is a fold may be more correct, because if you have 1 out you will proppably lose more than 1 bet on the river when the board pairs, correct?

[Diplomatdcm]

I hope not