Two $15-30 hands that bugged me

[ike]

If you figure him for a high heart what do you lose by waiting for the river to raise?

[cuse]

One play I'd certainly consider in hand two is simply raising the flop. When you say that MP1 is "weak-tight when acting before the raiser," I would assume that this flop bet is indicitive of some sort of a monster. If the blinds are aware of the MP's play I think calling hoping for overcalls is not nearly as profitable as raising and expecting a three-bet from MP1 which will allow you to cap. With this play, I would expect that you would still be able to get at least one BB on the turn or river from MP1 regardless of whether or not a heart hits- if the heart hits you can check through behind on the turn, inducing a river bluff, and otherwise bet the turn and expect a sure call. This play is very dependant on the belief that MP1's hand is strong enough that that player is betting into you, the preflop raiser, with the intention of three-betting.

I think it is unlikely that your smooth-call will convince the blinds to participate past the turn, and on the off chance that one of them has a hand capable of calling your raise, this play is even better.

On the other hand, if your weak-tight comment just means that you're worried about a fold to your raise or that three-betting is unlikely, then I like smooth-calling the flop and waiting for the river for your raise.

[andyfox]

Lots of guys in my game figure a river raise after you've bet twice is apt to mean the nuts, whereas a turn raise can be posturing. They'll even 3-bet the turn with the 2nd nuts, whereas they might fold on the river.

[Michael Davis]

A lot. His opponent may give up when he misses the river and definitely cannot pay off a raise even if she bluffs. And on the few occasions like the one in which his opponent had the hand she did (second nuts), he is more likely to get into a raising war on the turn than on the river.

-Michael

[Michael Davis]

Preflop, raising the K9s here against an opponent fitting the description is the best play. There really isn't another option. You have a good chance of isolating an opponent with a worse hand, but also have a hand that can stand the other players coming along.

-Michael

[Michael Davis]

I agree with you. I like to raise the flop here, too. Everybody expects you to, anyways. And there's no way your opponents are giving you credit for this hand when you play it speedily.

-Michael

[DcifrThs]

you happened to post two hands that are straight math.

in hand one you say the early guy is "predictable postflop" therefore he has precisely a ten in his hand or the made straight when he calls the two cold from you. therefore you get to see the river for free when its checked to you and you check behind which is what you should have done. if you bet, you will almost always have to call the bet and this is a corollary to S&M's check with outs, bet without if you can fold to the raise. this is especially so because you are 100% guaranteed a free river since you're last to act vs. haveing to pay TWO bets for the same free river. you could have spent 1/2 of what you had to and called instead of folding the river. what did he look like when the turn hit (gotta watch people) ? where were his hands? near his chips? if any of these tells was there you gotta check, even anticipation in his eyes and wrists...personally since he PLAYS PREDICTABLY you know he has the draw and the T is the most likely end of it so i check behind.

HAND 2:

in this hand the relative value of your hand does not change at all so raising the turn gets all other flushes to fold so often that you need to guarantee yourself at the very least that 1 extra bet on the river. that turn raise is too strong and you end up costing yourself more than you'll ever make with that raise.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
If you figure him for a high heart what do you lose by waiting for the river to raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

bingo...straight math as i said in my post.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

micheal and andy,

i tend to agree with ike here given the description of the player. you'll gain that extra bet more often that you'll ever get 3 bet ... there's just too high a probability you'll gain 1 bet after he folds to the river raise rather than gain an extra one or 2 on the turn...i think you're giving him too little weak tight credit.

-Barron

[Lawrence Ng]

I think you played both hands fine.